We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.

Scott Kellen of
SixthSenseSports.com

I want to thank Roland and the rest of the crew here at TwoMinuteWarning.com for allowing me to be their guest handicapper this week. I’ve always enjoyed the work they have done and appreciate their hard work toward developing strategies for beating the man.

Before I get going with my article this week, just a quick introduction for those who are not familiar with my handicapping. My name is Scott Kellen and I own Sixth Sense Sports ( www.SixthSenseSports.com ). My bread and butter is the NFL and I have been providing written analysis on every NFL game for the past nine plus seasons.

Two years ago I spent about four months reprogramming my database to develop sound strategies that have won year after year going back over the past 20 seasons. My research consisted of technical, fundamental and value based situations surrounding handicapping the NFL each and every week.

The research paid off and although I have won five consecutive years in the NFL, the past two plus seasons (since my research was completed) has been tremendous. My picks each week are monitored by The Sports Monitor (www.TheSportsMonitor.com) and over the past two seasons, I am #3 in overall units won in the NFL with an average of 12.2 units per season. While those results include both, sides and totals, and the sides have been outstanding, the totals have been even better. They are 29-15 65.9% over the past two seasons, making them #1 in winning percentage for any handicapper with 20 or more total plays. They are #4 in units won, with an average of 6.3 units won per season.

This year, it is more of the same, as I am 33-24 57.9% +18.60%. The totals have left off where they finished the past two seasons, going 10-5 67%. As always, the results are monitored by The Sports Monitor, and available at www.TheSportsMonitor.com.

I have also read numerous books over the years regarding handicapping football and many of those books have been very helpful. The problem I have always had with any book (even the great reads) is they usually don’t define a methodology to win. They may tell you to bet on good rushing teams against poor rushing defenses, but they don’t spell out how to define those terms or what those results are by following that advice. For me, that made it very hard to wager my hard earned money on those suggestions because I couldn’t do it with confidence, knowing the situations I was wagering on, were sound, profitable situations that would win over the long run.

That prompted my to write a book last year, titled The Unemotional Football Bettor, with specific strategies to beating college and NFL football on a yearly basis with confidence. Those strategies provided a tidy profit last year and are doing so again this year. If you are looking for help to developing a sound methodology to beating football, I suggest taking a look at my book.

About 95% of my handicapping is generated by league wide situations, based on technical, fundamental and value type based handicapping. If there isn’t a situation on the game, chances are I’m not betting on the game. Having said that, much of my totals success has come with a little more subjective handicapping along with the systems. This week, I am going to provide one of the methods I use to help predict total winners, which is a little more subjective and I am also going to provide a situation I use to help predict side winners, which is more objective.

A lot of my success has come from looking at team’s stats versus the opponents they have played. Let’s look at a game this week to get a better idea.

The defensive stats are to the right with the "D" in front of each column.

Looking at the table above, let’s make sure we understand what the numbers mean. If you look at NE, they are averaging 24 points per game against teams allowing just 19 points per game, meaning their offensive output, from a scoring standpoint, is five points above average. They are allowing only 18 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. Looking at the yards per play numbers, NE averages 5.6yppl against teams allowing just 5.1yppl, making their offense well above average. On defense, they are allowing just 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl, making their defense about average or slightly above average.

As you use these numbers over the years, you will become more and more familiar as to what to look for. The scoring averages give you a good idea of not only how well an offense is performing but also if that team is finishing their drives or turning the ball over. Last year Minnesota and Kansas City were both 0.8yppl better on offense than their opponents were allowing, but KC was averaging eight points more on offense than their opponents were allowing and Minnesota was averaging only three points better. Both teams moved the ball equally as well but one team was either converting yards into touchdowns, or getting defensive scores, that were showing up in their overall scoring average, etc.

Again, there are many ways to look at these numbers but they tell a better story than just looking at team’s overall numbers. NE allows 5.1yppl against teams averaging 5.2yppl, making their defense about 0.1yppl better than average. Houston allows 5.6yppl, which would make their defense, on the surface, look terrible when compared to the NE defense. But, if you dig a little deeper, you would know Houston is allowing 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl, which makes their defense just slightly worse than average by 0.1yppl. Those two defenses aren’t too far off. Houston has just played some very good offenses this year. But, looking at the numbers from a traditional viewpoint, Houston appears to have a defense, which is about 0.5yppl off, which isn’t the case.

So, with a little better understanding of what these numbers mean, this is what I am looking at in terms of totals. First, we’ll operate from a standpoint that the average points scored in a game this year is 21 points per team, or 42 points per game. The NE offense is well above average, gaining 5.6yppl against teams allowing just 5.1yppl. While the NE offense is well above average, the Rams defense is well below average, allowing 5.7yppl against teams averaging just 4.9yppl, making their defense about 0.8yppl worse than average. Going the other way, the Rams offense is well above average, gaining 6.0yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl and they will face a NE defense, which is allowing 5.1yppl against teams averaging 5.2yppl. That makes the NE defense slightly above average, but the Rams offense is so good, that they should be able to play well above average of an NFL offense, probably close to about 0.7yppl better than average. With the average NFL offense gaining 5.3yppl, this would mean they would gain something closer to 6.0yppl. The NE offense can be expected to average something closer to around 6.6yppl. With NE being on the road, their offensive numbers might be a little worse and the Rams offensive numbers might be a little better, but both teams should average better than 6.0yppl.

The total in this game is around 48 points. To go over a total, I am looking to play two better than average offensive teams with two average to below average defenses. We have that here and if this total was just 42 or 43, which is an average NFL total, this would be a strong over play. The linesmaker is asking us to lay about six points more than an average NFL game to bet the over in this game but I like the chances of this game going Over. Once I find a game like this, I will look a little further. For a game to go over, I want two teams who can pass the ball and thus score plenty of points quickly. Both teams can throw the ball, with NE averaging 6.9yps against teams allowing 5.9yps and the Rams averaging 6.8yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. On defense, NE defends the pass better, allowing just 5.9yps against teams averaging 6.2yps and the Rams have been terrible, allowing 6.5yps against teams averaging 5.6yps. Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air.

This is just one of the ways I use this data to help find totals to wager on each week in the NFL. Although the method is subjective, it allows the bettor to find some solid wagering opportunities. Next, I’ll take a look at an objective methodology I use to help predict side winners in the NFL.

The sooner you realize the NFL is a contrary league, the sooner you will begin winning on a regular basis. You have to be willing to bet on teams that most people don’t think have a chance to win games to win on a consistent basis in this league.

Last year I looked at all teams that were below .500 against the spread when playing teams who were above .500 against the spread. It’s very hard for “square” bettors to wager on teams who are not covering the spread, especially when playing teams who are covering every week. This is exactly what gets people into trouble when wagering on the NFL. Beginning with week seven (once we have allowed teams to accumulate some spread records and for the public to begin to form an opinion about these teams), these below .500 spread teams when facing above .500 spread teams are 652-555-37 54.0% since 1983. That simple method has only had four sub .500 seasons over the last 21 seasons and has averaged 1.97 units won in each of the last 21 seasons, with a 10% vigorish.

Of course, if you’ve read my book, you know I’m not stopping there because our Z-Factor is too low for me to use. I then looked at how these teams performed when playing at home. Our below .500 against the spread teams, when facing above .500 against the spread teams, went 339-257-22 56.9%. Not only did our win percentage go up by almost three percentage points, this method only had three sub .500 seasons over the past 21 seasons and the average units won per season increased to 2.68 units.

I took it one step further with the help of my trusty little database, which allows me to research thousands of different situations to try and improve the results we have already found. By making our home teams, who are below .500 against the spread and facing opponents who are above .500 against the spread, a home favorite of less than four points or a home underdog, our record improves to 278-187-21 59.8%. Not only did we now increase our win percentage almost six percentage points from our initial research, we have improved our average units won to 3.44 average units won per season over the past 21 seasons. Over those 21 seasons, there has only been three seasons that were below .500 against the spread.

There are two teams that apply to that method this week. Miami is just 2-6 ATS this year, while Arizona is 4-3 ATS. And, the Rams are just 2-4-1 ATS this year and New England, despite their loss last week, is 4-1-2 ATS. Denver would also apply if their line was less than four points. The fact that both teams, NE and Arizona, lost against the spread last week, doesn’t hurt our chances here. The numbers are still about the same either way. Your two winners this week are Miami and St. Louis.

If you would like to receive a free complimentary issue of my written analysis on every NFL game, just send me an email at Info@SixthSenseSports.com and let me know you would like to receive a free issue, courtesy of TwoMinuteWarning.com and I will be happy to send you a copy. That written analysis is usually available by 7:00 p.m. central each Friday evening.

Again, I appreciate the opportunity to be here this week and good luck to everybody the rest of the season.

Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting
Week 8: Armchair Analysis