The Field is Set! This season we kick off our own version of the legendary Stardust contest, in which you have sixteen notable handicappers go head to head until the final winner is left standing. Half the field is made up of notable experts, the other half came from Subscriber Qualifying Round Winners.
Best of all, we'll post the actual contest picks and reasoning behind them for each of the contestants rounds by round so you can follow along.
Contest lines are the lines posted on the Spread Quick Picks page each week.
1. Seattle -5.5 vs Buffalo – Other than an inexplicable meltdown to St. Louis, Seattle has won its other three home games by 7 or more. Bledsoe and company don’t have the ability to strike on offense like the Rams did.
2. Arizona +3 vs NY Jets – Shaun King vs. Quincy Carter. I’ll take King, especially given the way Arizona has played at home: 3-1 with the only loss coming against New England. Jets have looked ugly the past 3 weeks.
3. Kansas City -2.5 vs San Diego – Kansas City is always a tough place to play and the Chiefs have hit their stride. They played NE tough on MNF and KC has beaten SD 7 consecutive times at home.
4. Minnesota -6 vs Jacksonville – Jax has lots its rythym, losing 2 of its last 3 and needing OT to beat Detroit at home. Leftwich returns, but he’ll be rusty. Minnesota has been struggling, too, and I’m looking for them to break out of its slump at home. Randy Moss’ return will provide the boost they need.
5. Tennessee -1 at Houston – This is a revenge game for Tennessee, who lost to Houston at home in Week 6. The Titans picked up a big road win last week vs. Jax and with McNair back, they’ll pick up a second straight road victory against a Houston team that has lost 3 straight.
Aaron is the editor-in-chief for Football Outsiders, as well as a weekly contributor to ESPN.com Page 2's Snap Judgement column and the New York Sun. He will also be the lead writer for Pro Football Prospectus 2005.
Hi ho. Rather than reintroduce myself or my methods I'll just point
out that you can read my original picks (Head-2-Head Week 6 Picks) or the methods
description over at Football Outsiders.
GREEN BAY -6 over St. Louis
Our DVOA ratings say that St. Louis is a mirage, caused by good luck
and an ability to specifically beat teams in their own division. They
rank #28 overall in DVOA, with the worst defense AND the worst special
teams (once you adjust for the dome). Green Bay, meanwhile, is #21
DVOA, and #15 in WEIGHTED DVOA, which is a version of DVOA that
reduces the importance of earlier-season games to get a better picture
of how a team is playing now. We also know that the Packers play much
better on defense with Grady Jackson healthy, and have yet to lose a
game since his return. If this wasn't enough of a reason to pick the
Packers, we also have the infamous Anthony Brancato SYSTEM: dome or
warm weather teams usually do not cover when on the road in cold
weather late in the season, particularly if the game starts at 4pm or
later. Could any game qualify for this trend more than the
dome-dependent Rams at Lambeau Field on MONDAY NIGHT???
By far the easiest line on the board, which of course means that the
Rams will probably win by two touchdowns just to spite me. I'll pick
Green Bay anyway.
BUFFALO +5.5 at Seattle
Last week's stomping of the Rams, combined with Seattle's "yawn, I
don't really feel like playing today" sneak past Miami switched the
two teams in our ratings. Seattle dropped from #10 all the way down
to #18, while Buffalo moved from #19 all the way up to #10. Of
course, that still makes Buffalo number nine among AFC teams -- the
only NFC team in our top ten is Philadelphia.
How do you lose to Buffalo? Give Drew Bledsoe time to throw. So, is
Seattle a big QB sacking team? Nope. They started the season strong,
but in the past seven games they have a mere 13 sacks, and that's
against such sackilicious quarterbacks as Tim Rattay, Marc Bulger, and
whatever poor schlub Miami is putting out there in any given week.
Oh, by the way, did we mention that two of their starting linebackers
are out for the year, and Koren Robinson is on suspension, and Matt
Hasselbeck has a swollen bruise the side of a baseball on the back of
his thigh?
One more extra fun thing to watch: we rate Buffalo with the best
special teams in the NFL. Seattle is #27. Terrence McGee, come on
down, you're the next contestant on "The Path to the End Zone is
Clear."
HOUSTON +1 vs. Tennessee
Um, didn't I pick this game last time? I feel like deja vu here. I
wrote: "Both teams are 2-3, but before the season everyone (me
included) thought Tennessee was far superior, and everyone is back to
thinking that way after Monday night." This time both teams are 4-6,
and everyone still seems to think that Tennessee is superior,
especially after they watched Houston blow a lead on Sunday night.
Ironically, to the same Green Bay team that had everyone thinking
happy thoughts about Tennessee last time.
I also wrote last time: "The interesting thing here is that without
adjusting for opponents, Tennessee has the higher rating, but after
adjustments Houston is 16th while Tennessee is 22nd." And what do you
know. In my non-adjusted play by play background, Tennessee is indeed
slightly better yet again, but after adjusting for opponents and luck
recovering fumbles and so forth, Houston ranks #16 in DVOA while the
Titans are #24. And Houston is a home underdog despite the higher
ranking.
One other thing worth noting: Houston is third in the league in
consistency from game to game according to my VARIANCE stat, while
Tennessee third in the league in INconsistency. So the Titans could
totally blow Houston out of the water here, or play like garbage.
Houston will probably play a nice league average game either way.
JACKSONVILLE +6 at Minnesota
This one makes me a bit uncomfortable because Randy Moss is supposed
to be returning, although apparently he will be kept to 25 plays.
Nonetheless, Jacksonville (#12) ranks higher than Minnesota (#17) in
our DVOA ratings, and yet they are getting six points. I also feel
that it is reasonable to take an AFC underdog with the same record as
its NFC opponent given how dominant the AFC has been over the NFC this
season.
MIAMI +1 at San Francisco
Hey, it is my two worst-rated NFL teams! The difference is that while
San Francisco is near the bottom of the league at everything, Miami is
only at the bottom of the league in offense. There's still a defense
here. Some of San Francisco's poor rating on offense comes from the
black hole that is Ken Dorsey, but Tim Rattay has been awful the last
two weeks. I'm guessing that the Dolphins keep Rattay's bad streak
going and somehow manage to get into the end zone themselves. Have I
mentioned that the AFC is much better than the NFC this year?
Quarter-Final Matchups
First Round Matchups
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WEEK
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Expert
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TMW Subscriber
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WINNER
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3
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Sports Insights: every wager placed offshore registers at SportsInsights.com
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R.Shine (CA)
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R.Shine
see Picks
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4
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Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author, and creator of the Optimizer NFL software.
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J.Kelly (CA)
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Mike Orkin
see Picks
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5
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Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.
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T.Corpis (CA)
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Brandon Funston
see Picks
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6
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Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL stats site FootballOutsiders.com
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"Wunderdog"
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Aaron Schatz
see Picks
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7
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Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and authority on all things gambling.
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S.Penhos (Mexico)
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S.Penhos*
see Picks
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8
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Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's H2H Challenge.
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J.Palazzolo (NV)
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J.Palazzolo
see Picks
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9
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Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert, author, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com
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K.Aird (Canada)
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K.Aird
see Picks
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10
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'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, million dollar winning blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House
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M.Gargone (AL)
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Kevin Lewis*
see Picks
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* same overall record, won tiebreakers
