Player 1	Player 2
S.Penhos (Mexico) Subscriber Qualifier	K.Aird (Canada) Subscriber Qualifier
1. Philadelphia +1 2. Kansas City -7.5 3. Atlanta +3 4. San Francisco +11 5. NY Jets +3 Hi again… it looks like we are doing fine with our simple approach: ‘Luck does not exist… it is a matter of reasoning’. You can read some of this approach right here at H2H week 7 picks when I confronted Benjamin Eckstein of America’s Line column… also you can see my week 13 picks Is there a ‘best bet’ over there? My bankroll management system says: you can have a ‘best bet’ but you can not bet on it more than your ‘worse bet’, because if there is a ‘worse bet’ simple is a no bet… Does ‘best bet’ mean that you can bet a larger sum of money? Yes, if and only if you can afford to lose it without ‘betting the farm’… I only bet for entertainment purposes not to make ‘an additional farm to be wagered’… I am not looking to be rich and famous… as far as I know there is no one’s grave where the sentence “Here rests a mortal that has been called the best bettor and handicapper of all times... he has amassed a lot of fortune and died at the side of his TV seeing MNF, while his family were suffering loneliness and misfortune” The big question… can we bet for entertaining purposes? YES. To demonstrate yourself any betting theory that you may have… mine is that luck does not exist… A last advice: NEVER BET A PARLAY, NEVER… statistically you are fried… in the long run you will lose all… does it make sense that you can make $5,000.00 with a 10 teams $10.00 parlay? Your real chances are much less than the regular 500/1 payout… Well, my picks for this week are mostly based on www.twominutewarning.com, www.foxsheets.com, www.nfl.com, www.sportsinsights.com numbers… I am subscriber on all of this respectable statistics sites: twominutewarning.com - Great for multiple statistics approaches and views foxsheets.com - Great to read trends on many sports nfl.com - Great for numbers that you have to learn how to read and work with. sportsinsights.com - A real ‘insider’ on online books to see how the people is behaving in terms of betting, remember that the public is always wrong. Now the picks… PHILADELPHIA +1 Philadelphia vs. St. Louis -1 Note: At the time I have made the following write-up PHI has announced that they may play with most of the starters at rest. But anyway at +1 PHI is powerful at the field even though Bulger will be back… If McNabb starts PHI will crush the Rams even though Owens will not play… Anyway you can enjoy my reasoning… Here there is a lot of support for this pick. McNabb (PHI) is ranked as the 4th QB with 3,839 yds and 8 interceptions. Owens (PHI) is ranked as the 3rd receiver with 77 receptions and 1,200 yds. This pair will make the Eagles to fly. As a contrast you can see Bulger (STL) at 9th place with 3,289 yds and 12 interceptions. Holt (STL) is at 5th place with 80 receptions and 1,181 yds. From this numbers you can get an approach of my way of reading numbers… Mc Nabb 3,839 yards / 8 interceptions = 479.875 yards thrown before an interception occurs again. http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/133361 Bulger 3,289 yards / 12 interceptions = 274.08 yards thrown before an interception occurs again. http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/187501 Also we can see in Mc Nabb case that he has improved a lot compared to its previous campaigns passing efficiency: 2002 = 58.4%, 2003= 57.5% and 2004 = 63.7% with and yards per pass average of 8.24 although Bulger numbers are constant at 2002 = 64.5%, 2003 = 63.2% and 2004 = 64.9% but the yards per pass average is 7.85 The dream will fall if when the lines open for this game the spread is different than the PHILADELPHIA +1 rules of this contest give… Because this contest will be very close to the wire... but you can find more support of all of this reasoning at www.twominutewarning.com free MNF page. KANSAS CITY -7.5 Oakland vs. Kansas City -7.5 Here we are going to take team totals as there are no ‘big’ players in either team besides Green (KCC) QB. KC is ranked as the 1st Offense team and Oakland at 15th place. Huge difference. On the D KC is 31st and OAK is 30th. The key will be how Green plays this game... he will need to feed Gonzalez (KCC) and Kennison (KCC) to make the it… Porter (OAK) may find trouble getting the ball… In rushing Offense KC is MUCH stronger than OAK, the latter sits at the 32nd place… ATLANTA +3 Atlanta vs. New Orleans -3 The approach on this one will be based on www.twominutewarning.com ‘Overlay’ report… Drive Chart Overlay: Atlanta at New Orleans: Atlanta 4 point overlay AwayDogs with an overlay of 4-5.5 = 5-1 AwayTeams with an overlay of 4-5.5 = 11-3 ALL PICKS with an overlay of 4-5.5 = 20-6 (77%) Play by Play Overlay Atlanta at New Orleans: Atlanta 8 point overlay AwayDogs with an overlay of 8+ Points = 7-1 Underdogs with an overlay of 8+ Points = 8-2 ALL PICKS with an overlay of 8+ Points = 28-20 (58% Good enough) SAN FRANCISCO +11 Buffalo vs. San Francisco +11 Those bookies will make a huge party when this game is over… they will cash 91% of the bets on this game… www.sportsinsights.com shows it… and the simplest numbers shows that not because is the team with the worst record it has to lose this one with an 11 point spread, please read: Buffalo and San Francisco offense are ranked among the last 10 offenses on the www.nfl.com stats… On the D side, Buffalo is 3rd and San Francisco is in the middle, 16th place here is where the risk is… We get more support on this pick with www.twominutewarning.com ‘Inside the 20’ feature, which has had this season an impressive record of 17-7 (71% and the most successful of all the sites features). This study analyzes the team’s performance on the red zone… the outcome? Predicted statistical result Buffalo 19 / San Francisco 20 NY JETS +3 New England vs. NY Jets +3 For www.twominutewarning.com subscribers eyes only. Please read Trends and Regressor columns… 66% and 63% predictability efficiency on each system, and both ranked the Jets as the… oops! I said for www.twominutewarning.com subscribers only! I hope that after reading all my letters, you enjoy your entertainment betting experience… I can not promise to be the best, but I like to be among them… Congratulations for this Holiday Season to each and every one… May peace be always among us… I am starting to like this… Saleh Penhos from Mexico City… (lines written on a holiday to Acapulco…) “luck does not exist…   it is a matter of reasoning”	1. Minnesota -3 2. Pittsburgh -6 3. Kansas City -7.5 4. Detroit -6 5. New Orleans -3 Talk about your ultimate in the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). A Canadian vs. a Mexican in the semi's. Well, I feel fortunate to be down to the semi's but not sure how I will fair against a "non-author". Late in the season, it gets a little trickier for the teams that may have nothing to play for, so it falls back to who is still dedicated to their coach, versus those that have packed it in. It seems like you need to be more of a psychologist than anything else, but lets see if we can prevail and go head to head versus our ratings guy. Here is to hoping that Senor or myself make the subscribers proud. Let us begin........ Green Bay at Minnesota Although it seems strange having a number one pick being a team that defensively leaves a lot to be desired these days, but this pick being thrust to the number one spot, is based on the return of Mr. Winfield at Cornerback. Firstly, the Packers have been dropping off the last three games, getting hammered by the Eagles, needing a late rally versus the Lions and falling short versus the Jags. For the Vikes, here is a chance to get their arch rival limping into their turf and knowing if they can win out that they will have home field advantage in the first round and head to another dome for round two in the playoffs. The Pack can't stop the run and although the Vikes aren't much better defensively, Culpepper is playing well and on Christmas Eve Day, they give the fans an early present. Vikes -3 Baltimore at Pittsburgh Those that know me may feel this is a homer pick, but nonetheless, we will run with it. Big Ben's last game where he did not come out victorious was versus the Ravens earlier this year. Now the Ravens go into Heinz Field with the Steelers having the opportunity to lock up first place, versus their second biggest rival, looking for early season redemption. You have a banged up Ray Lewis and the Steelers have faired well versus the Ravens overall in this series, plus have the extra days rest. Quite possibly special teams will be the difference between the Steelers win and an outright cover, but I am willing to play the hunch. Go Randle El. Steelers -6 Oakland at Kansas City If there is a Coach that just doesn't suit his team, it is Norv Turner. I mean really the Art Shell's, Jon Gruden's of the world were Raider coaches, but Turner? I rank him up there with Joe Bugel, look more like a grandmaster of Chess than someone that would shake hands with members from the Black hole. The Raiders have been a lost ship this year, further evident with half their secondary now caught for public intoxication the other night. The Chiefs are finally playing like the Chiefs were suppose to. Now they get a chance to play the Raiders at home in their final date at Arrowhead for the year. Dick will have them going in this tilt to build for next year, Big Al Davis, will be having Norv's head on the chopping block, in the upcoming weeks. Fear not on the extra half point, Chiefs it is. Kansas City -7.5 Chicago at Detroit Running with the theory, about teams still playing for their coach we will move to Detroit (or as the old Van Earl used to say De-twa). The Bears have done an admirable job with their quarterback carousel this year and Lovie should be commended for his job with the injuries they have, but not this weekend. The Lions again, will play out the string strong, with Joey trying to retain his starting position for next year. Jones is running the ball well, and if Az Hakim could hold a football, they would be deadly. No Urlacher, no cover, Lions it is. Detroit -6 Atlanta at New Orleans In principle, I want to lean to the Chargers getting the points they are and running with the theory that the betting public over bets a team off a strong performance on Monday night, I have to stay away from the fish, so this leads me to a team I just couldn't envision seeing myself pick two weeks ago, but that is the Saints. After watching their miraculous comeback versus the Bucs and the Cowboys for that matter, and now with a team that is going to rest Vick, Crumpler, and an injured Duckett, how do you not go with them? Saints it is. New Orleans -3 Merry Christmas to all and hope to see you next week......

Semi-Final Matchups

WEEK	Player 1	Player 2	WINNER
15	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, creator of Optimizer NFL software.	Aaron Schatz: The founder of stats site FootballOutsiders.com	Aaron Schatz see Picks
16	S.Penhos (Mexico) Subscriber Qualifier	K.Aird (Canada) Subscriber Qualifier	?

Quarter-Final Matchups

WEEK	Player 1	Player 2	WINNER
11	R.Shine (CA) Subscriber Qualifier	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, creator of Optimizer NFL software.	Mike Orkin see Picks
12	Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, NFL Analyst.	Aaron Schatz: The founder of stats site FootballOutsiders.com	Aaron Schatz see Picks
13	S.Penhos (Mexico) Subscriber Qualifier	J.Palazzolo (NV) Subscriber Qualifier	S.Penhos see Picks
14	K.Aird (Canada) Subscriber Qualifier	'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House	K.Aird see Picks

First Round Matchups

WEEK	Expert	TMW Subscriber	WINNER
3	Sports Insights: every wager placed offshore registers at SportsInsights.com	R.Shine (CA)	R.Shine see Picks
4	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author, and creator of the Optimizer NFL software.	J.Kelly (CA)	Mike Orkin see Picks
5	Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.	T.Corpis (CA)	Brandon Funston see Picks
6	Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL stats site FootballOutsiders.com	"Wunderdog"	Aaron Schatz see Picks
7	Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and authority on all things gambling.	S.Penhos (Mexico)	S.Penhos* see Picks
8	Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's H2H Challenge.	J.Palazzolo (NV)	J.Palazzolo see Picks
9	Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert, author, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com	K.Aird (Canada)	K.Aird see Picks
10	'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, million dollar winning blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House	M.Gargone (AL)	Kevin Lewis* see Picks