The Field is Set! This season we kick off our own version of the legendary Stardust contest, in which you have sixteen notable handicappers go head to head until the final winner is left standing. Half the field is made up of notable experts, the other half came from Subscriber Qualifying Round Winners.
Best of all, we'll post the actual contest picks and reasoning behind them for each of the contestants rounds by round so you can follow along.
Contest lines are the lines posted on the Spread Quick Picks page each week.
The heart of Sports Insight’s philosophy is determining betting line value. The betting line represents the pulse of the sports betting marketplace. We use our unique betting stats, betting percentage from online sportsbooks, to determine line value and pinpoint large wagers made by “sharp” players.
Sports Insights provides members with information previously only available to the odds makers at sportsbooks. For the first time, sports bettors can view how the public is betting on any sporting event. This allows them to gain a clearer picture of the factors affecting the sports betting marketplace. Our members not only avoid "joe square / sucker" lines, but they learn to profit from them. The betting charts also allow members to accurately pinpoint Wiseguy or Smart Money sport bets.
The charts and statistical analysis found on Sports Insights will help you make intelligent decisions based on facts. It will not guarantee that you will win. Understanding the factors that affect betting line movement gives our members a measurable edge helping them to increase their wining percentage over the long term.
New Orleans vs St. Louis: St Louis -7
St. Louis is a 7 point favorite after being shelled by Atlanta? The public is betting New Orleans +7 like they know the score? Every week there are 1 or 2 games that “appear” to have lines to good to be true…this is one of them. In these games bet against the public.
Betting Stats:
Straight Bets: NO=84%, STL=16%
Teaser Bets: NO=65% , STL= 35%
Green Bay vs Indy: Green Bay +6
The betting line moving in the opposite direction of the betting percentages is a key indicator that “smart money”, large bets by individuals, has been placed on Green Bay at +6. We always follow the smart money.
Click on this link to see a full page of
Free Game Stats for this matchup.
Betting Stats:
Straight Bets: GB = 26%, IND = 74%
Teaser Bets: GB = 39%, IND = 61%
Philly vs Detroit: Detroit +4
This is one of the most lopsided bet games of the week. The betting line has moved from Philly -3.5 to Philly -5.5. In line value terms this is a great game to bet Detroit taking the extra points at home. Unfortunately, because of contest rules I’m only allowed to take Detroit at +4.0. But anyone betting this game on Saturday or Sunday can get down at +5.5 or +6.
Betting Stats:
Straight Bets: PHI = 85%, DET =15%
Teaser Bets: PHI = 81%, DET = 19%
Chicago vs Minn: Chicago +9
Chicago came through for us last week and handed Green Bay their first loss of the year. The public still feels Minn is destined for great things.
Betting Stats:
Straight Bets: CHI = 35%, MIN = 65%
Teaser Bets: CHI = 34%, MIN = 66%
Baltimore vs Cincy: Cincy +3
We love home dogs. The public is on Baltimore. Take the points and the home field advantage.
Betting Stats:
Straight Bets: BAL = 66%, CIN = 34%
Teaser Bets: BAL = 64%, CIN = 36%
TMW Subscriber - "Couch Potato"
1. Tennessee Titans -6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Minnesota Vikings -9 vs. Chicago Bears
3. Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
4. San Francisco 49ers +11 vs. Seattle Seahawks
5. Oakland Raiders -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Titans looking good with RB Chris Brown chewing-up yards. Jags offense
sputtering (20 points in two games). Titans at home. Prefer to lay less than
a TD with Titans.
PICK: Tennessee -6
Vikings in a similar spot as the Colts were in last week. They played well
enough to win but costly turnovers and untimely penalties resulted in a
tough loss. Da Bears are coming off an emotional win versus the Pack and
hitting the road again. With the Bears secondary hurting, look for the
Vikings to bounce back big.
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -9
Not crazy about taking a road favorite but the Ravens' "D" should have a
field-day with immobile and inexperienced Bengal QB Carson Palmer. Look for
the Ravens to stuff Rudi Johnson and force Palmer to try throw which could
be disastrous. Would be surprised if the Bengals scored more than 10 points.
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -3
The 49ers are banged-up! Newberry (C), Rattay (QB), Barlow (RB), Wilson (WR)
are all less than 100%. Despite being 0-2 (2-0 ATS), Dennis Erickson has
done a tremendous coaching job keeping the 'Niners in games. Seahawks are
the "darling" pick this year but the line is just too high. Take the points.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers +11
Although the Raiders are horrible ATS at home (4-14-1 last 19) prefer to lay
the 3.5 against an undermanned Buccaneers team. The uncertain QB position
not withstanding, who's going to catch the ball? Michael Clayton? Charles
Lee? Bill Schroeder? Frank Murphy? I don't know about your fantasy draft but
none of these guys were on my "hot" list.
PICK: Oakland Raiders -3.5
Complete First Round Matchups
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WEEK
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Expert
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TMW Subscriber
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3
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Sports Insights: there isn't a wager placed offshore that SportsInsights.com doesn't know about...
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R.Shine (CA)
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4
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Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author of "Can You Win?" and creator of the Optimizer NFL data mining software.
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J.Kelly (CA)
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5
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Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.
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T.Corpis (CA)
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6
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Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL statistical analysis site FootballOutsiders.com
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G.Kulesa (CO)
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7
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Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and acknowledged authority on all things gambling.
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S.Penhos (Mexico)
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8
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Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's Head-to-Head Challenge.
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J.Palazzolo (NV)
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9
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Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert and author of numerous books, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com
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K.Aird (Canada)
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10
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'Kevin Lewis': the MIT grad and million dollar winning blackjack player, star of recent bestseller "Bringing Down the House".
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M.Gargone (AL)
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