Expert - Aaron Schatz

For those of you who have never read Football Outsiders, I should stress that picking individual games is not my strong point. When I first began doing football research 18 months ago, I specifically shied away from creating metrics that were meant to pick specific games against the spread, since that niche was already filled by a ton of different websites (Two Minute Warning, of course, being one of the best). My analysis is meant to be at the same time more micro (which players are responsible for a team's winning or losing, can we separate offensive line from running back, etc.) and more macro (which teams should we expect to improve or decline over the course of the season, or next season). Many issues that impact the spread -- injuries, bye weeks, specific trends by one team against another -- are not part of my research to this point.

My main statistic at Football Outsiders is called DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value over Average. It breaks down every play during the season and compares it to a league benchmark based on situation and opponent (further explained here). Each week I publish new ratings on Tuesday with commentary. It is still early in the season, and just as with the methods at Two Minute Warning it is difficult to make conclusions based on small sample size. But I'll use my ratings to try to identify the lines most askew with performance so far this season. Somehow, I'm ending up with five road teams. Let's hear it for hotel pay-per-view.

PITTSBURGH +3 at Dallas
There is one clear pattern as far as DVOA and point spreads. So far this year -- even early when there was almost no information to go on -- an underdog with a higher DVOA than the favorite has covered the spread every single game except one, the San Francisco comeback against Arizona last week. Despite the fact that Vinny Testaverde has played for 15 different NFL teams including the Providence Steam Roller, I went against conventional wisdom and picked Dallas (14th in DVOA) to have a good season because of their defense. But the defense has struggled this year, currently ranked 19th (see defensive rankings). Last year they were the top run defense; this year, so far, they rank 24th. Pittsburgh has benefited from an easy early schedule but even after adjusting for opponent quality they rank 7th in DVOA. Despite being on the road, despite a rookie quarterback, despite the fact that Parcells is Parcells, they shouldn't be the underdog here.

HOUSTON +7 at Tennessee
Both teams are 2-3, but before the season everyone (me included) thought Tennessee was far superior, and everyone is back to thinking that way after Monday night. The interesting thing here is that without adjusting for opponents, Tennessee has the higher rating, but after adjustments Houston is 16th while Tennessee is 22nd. Tennessee's two wins have come against this year's two worst-rated teams, the injury-ravaged Packers and the "you can't turn your head away from a car wreck" Dolphins. I think the Titans are better than they've looked this year but I'll go with the numbers and a line that's a couple points too big.

SAN DIEGO +5.5 at Atlanta
This is the third and final game where the underdog has been the better team this season. San Diego is 9th, Atlanta 13th. One of the big issues here is that the Atlanta defense so far this year has caused eight fumbles and recovered seven of them. Recovering fumbles is essentially random; once you knock the ball loose, it's usually just about which way it bounces. That means the Atlanta defense is not as good as they seem. Meanwhile, we did projections before the season and got an absurd result that had San Diego as a top ten offense. I didn't believe it either, but here we are. Maybe the Chargers are this year's out of nowhere team -- they certainly have the "nobody believes in us" thing going more than Jacksonville.

SAN FRANCISCO +10 at Jets
San Francisco's offensive DVOA is -11.1%, 29th in the NFL. Take out the two games Ken Dorsey started and it is +3.0%. The Jets have an absurdly easy schedule (this game included) puffing up their stats, and they are suffering from injuries on the offensive line, which has keyed their whole revival this year. I'm driving the Jets bandwagon this season but the 49ers probably cover and a win would not shock me.

KANSAS CITY -2 at Jacksonville
A road favorite to go with my four road dogs. Actually, it looks like the betting world is catching up with DVOA, which all along has said that Jacksonville was catching all the lucky breaks and Kansas City was catching all the unfortunate ones. Kansas City is 11th, my highest ranked team with a losing record. Jacksonville is 20th, my lowest ranked team with a winning record. Kansas City's defense in particular is playing better than people think -- the opposite of Atlanta, they've had terrible luck on fumble recoveries, but they've got a good number of interceptions (a better indicator of defensive ability) and their defensive line has stopped one of every three runs for a loss or no gain (league average is one in five). Once a runner gets into that secondary, though, yikes. Nobody can pursue or tackle. But Jacksonville has only 12% of its rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage (29th in the NFL) so weakness meets weakness. Eddie Kennison is back this week, which might free up Tony Gonzalez. Plus, I hate all teams that wear teal.

For purposes of tiebreaking, the order of my picks goes:
1. San Diego +5.5
2. Pittsburgh +3
3. San Francisco +10
4. Houston +7
5. Kansas City -2

TMW Subscriber - Wunderdog

1. Miami +7 - Miami is due. Winless teams find a way to win - eventually. Buffalo doesn't have enough offense (especially against this Miami D) to be a touchdown favorite. Two good defenses with weak offenses. Should be a close one.

2. Houston +7 - Just like the recently departed Rodney Dangerfield, Houston doesn't get any respect. The public has pushed this line up to 7 based on Tennessee's dominating national performance on Monday night in Lambeau. But, as I think we all have learned, the Packers are terrible and the Lambeau mystique is officially gone. Houston has a good defense and solid upcoming offense. Did everyone forget that Tennessee was 1-3 and on the ropes prior to Monday night's anomoly? The Texans keep this one very close.

3. Jacksonville +2 - OK, Jacksonville lost last week. But to a pretty good San Diego squad. Kansas City still can't stop anyone. Jacksonville bounces back and wins this one.

4. Carolina +8.5 - Philly is good but not this good. Let us not forget that Carolina nearly won the Super Bowl last year. This is not the same team but Philly is overrated at this point in the season and some complacency has got to be seeping in. The Panthers were one penalty away from possibly winning last week in Denver. Don't count them out.

5. San Francisco +10 - Yes, the Jets are 4-0 but they haven't blown anyone out and in two of their four games they faced offenses in the bottom 10% of the league (Miami and Buffalo). The Jets are good but not as good as the public thinks. Match them against the 1-4 Niners who everyone has identified as an easy target, and you have a recipe for value. The Jets should certainly win this game but 10 points is just too much. Outside of a terrible game against Seattle, San Francisco has done pretty well. They lost their first two games by a total of 5 points and they won last week in impressive comeback fashion. As bad as they have appeared, they've been profitable against the spread so far this year. I like 'em to cover in this one.

www.freeunderdog.com

Complete First Round Matchups

WEEK	Expert	TMW Subscriber	WINNER
3	Sports Insights: every wager placed offshore registers at SportsInsights.com	R.Shine (CA)	R.Shine see Picks
4	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author, and creator of the Optimizer NFL software.	J.Kelly (CA)	Mike Orkin see Picks
5	Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.	T.Corpis (CA)	Brandon Funston see Picks
6	Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL stats site FootballOutsiders.com	"Wunderdog"	?
7	Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and authority on all things gambling.	S.Penhos (Mexico)	?
8	Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's H2H Challenge.	J.Palazzolo (NV)	?
9	Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert, author, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com	K.Aird (Canada)	?
10	'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, million dollar winning blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House	M.Gargone (AL)	?