The Field is Set! This season we kick off our own version of the legendary Stardust contest, in which you have sixteen notable handicappers go head to head until the final winner is left standing. Half the field is made up of notable experts, the other half came from Subscriber Qualifying Round Winners.
Best of all, we'll post the actual contest picks and reasoning behind them for each of the contestants rounds by round so you can follow along.
Contest lines are the lines posted on the Spread Quick Picks page each week.
Jets (+6.5) over Patriots
Intimidation is a key tool in New England's arsenal, but this group of New Yorkers, unlike the
Yankees, will not be intimidated. Not with Chad Pennington at the controls. Last season, the
Patriots beat the Jets twice, 23-16 up at Foxboro, without Pennington, and 21-16 in New York, with
him. Any way you slice it, tight games. Actually, the recent history in this rivalry is weighted in
favor of the Jets, especially on the road. Even during this truly historic run for the Pats, New
York has been outstanding at New England. Going back to 1997, New York has a brilliant 6-1 spread
mark at Foxboro, and has won five of those games outright. This has been a great week for Boston,
and could get even better, but these Jets WILL fly out of town with a cover.
Jaguars (+9) over Colts-x
A little sprained ankle ain't gonna keep Byron Leftwich down. We watched this kid when he was at
Marshall, and was carried by his linemen to the line of scrimmage when he could hardly walk. His
pain tolerance is off the charts, and that bodes well for another superb game. Obviously, Peyton
Manning is the big dog in this quarterback matchup, with all the gaudy stats, but Jacksonville has
something that Indianapolis does not...defense. In the first matchup, Manning was wicked good,
completing 20 of 29, 14 of 14 on three scoring drives, and yet the Colts still only managed to win
by seven, 24-17. The Jaguars have played the Horseshoes tough the last five times out, and the Colts
offense that normally hangs 30 and 40 on the board, has never been out of the 20's against the Jags.
Look for another tight fit.
Eagles (-7) over Browns-x
Perfection is sweet, and also good for the economy, the economy of my wallet. The Birds, as every one
knows, have won and covered all five games this season, and by double digits. What some folks might
have forgotten is, Philly's ridiculous spread record on the road since the middle of 2003. How about
a big fat 8-0. If the Eagles keep winning like this, I should be able to buy a small piece of Baja California.
Bills (+6) over Ravens-x
Buffalo has been competitive (winning or losing by three or less) in every game execpt for one
against the Patriots. No shame there. Baltimore will have to live without Jamal Lewis for the next
two weeks, and that will put a severe crimp in the offense. The Ravens are last in the NFL in
passing yards (116 per game), and with Lewis out, the Bills defense will be drooling.
Chargers (+3) over Panthers-x
Another team with a troubled running game. Carolina lost DeShaun Foster, the #2 running back to a
broken collarbone, and the #1 guy, Stephen Davis, got banged up last week and is now questionable.
Without a running game, the Panthers will not be able to survive. Not against a revitalized San
Diego team that is a surprising 3-3, and has covered four of five (80%) with one push.
TMW Subscriber - S.Penhos
Well, here I am competing against the best handicappers... Before going to the picks, I would like to mention my betting method and some explanation on how I have been successful in the enjoyable adventure of sports betting:
A. My saying: "Luck does not exist... It is a matter of reasoning".
B. The public is always wrong... please remember the 2000 Nasdaq crash. The public is used not to think but to guess or relay their decisions on subjective issues. The influence of the media is bigger than the people will.
C. The statistics are history. Knowing and analyzing this type of information can help you to see the probables outcomes on an event (a stock price move, a football game, the weather, etc.)
D. There is plenty of free information on the internet. The advantage of using the internet is that you choose what to read and see. We know that even in the TV where there is a lot of choices (channels) you have to 'wait' to see what you are looking for.
E. Not all of the internet 'paid' information is reliable.
F. Most of the time you do not have time.
G. Although you can get a monetary reward betting (that is very good) you have to know the limits of entertaining yourself and betting your peace of mind. Entertain yourself and make this a hobby, not a way of living.
H. The betting 'spread' does NOT REPRESENT the real dominance of one team over another, it DOES represent the public perception of an outcome, remember that the 'bookies' live to make money with the 'juice'. No one is able to 'absorb' or take ALL the incoming bets. Their target is to offset all the bets and win the juice. NEVER bet on a parlay. On a 2 team parlay there are 4 possible bets, where only one is a winner and 75% is a loser. If your predictions have the 60% chances of being right (a very good number), the chances of winning a parlay are reduced to 15% using simple mathematics. Does it makes sense?
Now the picks and the reasoning behind them:
1. Best Bet. MIAMI +6.5
Is there a Best Bet? I do not think so, at least it is not a wise bankroll strategy. Am I crazy? Miami? Against Saint Louis? The lone remaining winless team up to week 6. Statistics pulled out from twominutewarning.com, foxsheets.com and nfl.com proves that this team has around 70% of chances to cover the spread, just to mention:
Chance to cover the spread according to the UPM-L5 (Ultimate Prediction Machine Last 5 weeks, 5000 simulations, paid information twominutewarning.com) 72%
Chance to cover the spread according to the UPM (Ultimate Prediction Machine,5000 simulations, paid information twominutewarning.com) 69%
Score Overlay (Drive Chart Overlay Summary, paid information twominutewarning.com) 3.5 points, usually a +4 overlay underdog is the strongest play.
Square play (Go against the public), as of today of the betting public, 74% is favoring St Louis on straight bets and 94% on parlays. (sportsinsights.com paid subscription)
148 stars on statfox.com, also and 'edge' over Saint Louis of 2 stars. A star represent a situation that is explained on the statfox.com or foxsheets.com pages.
2. Second Best Bet. ARIZONA +7
Am I crazy again? Nope. Numbers please:
Chance to cover the spread according to the UPM (Ultimate Prediction Machine,5000 simulations, paid information twominutewarning.com) 71% and as a Home Dog. On week 5 same case with San Diego Jacksonville where this statistic gave 73% chance to cover against Jacksonville.
Chance to cover the spread according to the UPM-L5 (Ultimate Prediction Machine Last 5 weeks, 5000 simulations, paid information twominutewarning.com) 71%
Play Against - Any team (SEATTLE) - with a turnover margin of +2 /game or better on the season. (28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 4*) (Paid information on statfox.com and foxsheets.com)
Square play (Go against the public), as of today of the betting public, 81% is favoring Seattle on straight bets and 94% on parlays. (sportsinsights.com paid subscription). By the way, the line has moved 0.5 points against Seattle, now at 6.5
3. Third Best Bet. KANSAS CITY -3.5
Injury Report (twominutewarning.com paid information) Change 2+(Record 6-2), 3+ (Record 4-1) and this week 3+ (Record 11-6). For explanation go to: Injury Research
Trends (twominutewarning.com paid information) Kansas City - ranks #6 in rushing offense and #10 in passing defense (Record 9-4)
Square play (Go against the public), as of today of the betting public, 71% is favoring Atlanta on straight bets and 74% on parlays. (sportsinsights.com paid subscription).
4. Fourth Best Bet. CAROLINA -3
5. Fifth Best Bet. DENVER -6
Conclusion: If I win, I will be very happy. If not, I have enjoyed being part of this. Thanks to people like the twominutewarning.com team, that for a little money in exchange you can get a very reliable source of information. See you then again if I pass to the next round...
Complete First Round Matchups
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WEEK
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Expert
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TMW Subscriber
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WINNER
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3
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Sports Insights: every wager placed offshore registers at SportsInsights.com
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R.Shine (CA)
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R.Shine
see Picks
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4
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Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author, and creator of the Optimizer NFL software.
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J.Kelly (CA)
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Mike Orkin
see Picks
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5
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Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.
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T.Corpis (CA)
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Brandon Funston
see Picks
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6
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Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL stats site FootballOutsiders.com
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"Wunderdog"
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Aaron Schatz
see Picks
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7
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Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and authority on all things gambling.
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S.Penhos (Mexico)
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?
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8
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Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's H2H Challenge.
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J.Palazzolo (NV)
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?
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9
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Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert, author, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com
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K.Aird (Canada)
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?
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10
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'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, million dollar winning blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House
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M.Gargone (AL)
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?
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