Expert - Roland

Every year more people step forward to contribute new ideas and new content to the site, and with each arrival I take a step away, and hopefully, my role will continue to diminish dramatically (so as, among other things, to allow me to work on that little 82games.com project).

There is something quite satisfying to me about going into the detailed pages we publish and perusing all the effort behind the features, knowing that from a small group of friends agreeing to watch one game each week we've grown into this 'compendium of NFL information' with a fairly sizable place in the sports forecasting world.

The one downside is that over the years the objective of building quality handicapping tools has been corrupted into placing more of an emphasis on making picks, but as I have written about elsewhere I believe that almost everyone who participates in the activity of sports handicapping should ultimately make their own decisions if they are going to place a wager.

So while I do agree it's a lot of fun to read how other people go about choosing a side in a matchup, don't let it stop you from jumping into the fray yourself.

Atlanta at Denver (-6.5)
While we have a lot of tools to look at, and I do read pretty much every one each week, that's not to say I don't have my own personal biases as to what are the "heavyweights" of TwoMinuteWarning. One of my 'babies' is the DC/TO feature, which combines the drive stat projections with a dose of turnover difference theory. There's some nuance in how to use the DC/TO numbers, but one of the points I try to adhere to is that the best plays come about when the DC/TO predicted score extends an already existing advantage of the straight Drive Chart (DC) predicted score. This matchup illustrates that nicely as Denver has a comfortable overlay with the 25-12 DC forecast, but an even healthier 32-12 outlook from the DC/TO.
Pick: Denver -6.5

Green Bay at Washington (+2)
Many subscribers are big fans of the UPM ("Ultimate Prediction Machine") feature which simulates a matchup thousands of times to come up not only with a projected winner, but also a confidence value of how likely a team is to cover the spread. It's not actually one of my favorite indicators, but it's hard to overlook the rare 70% or higher confidence games, which now have a 23-7 lifetime record with live usage. Washington lands right on the 70% mark this week, and there are several other pointers to the Redskins.
Pick: Washington +2

New England at Pittsburgh (+3)
The Patriots have of course won a record number of consecutive games over a two year span. Last week's big matchup against the undefeated Jets was just another example of winning a close game when they were perhaps not at their best. Respect must be given to the New Englanders. Still, streaks must end and this looks like a good spot for the Steelers. No slouches in their own right so far in 2004, they get a big push from our "Inside the 20" column which shows Pittsburgh with an almost unstoppable 82% touchdown rate on offense once they've entered the red zone, and a defense that's solid, albeit not quite as good as the Pats. An underdog you believe has a great shot at an outright triumph is worth noting.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3

Carolina (+8) at Seattle
One feature I will practically never go against is the Injury Report analysis. There are two games this week where the current injury toll is of prime significance, this game and the Oakland at San Diego matchup. While the Chargers have the "injury edge" there are enough indicators siding with the Raiders that I will pass there, but with Panthers-Seahawks it's a clearer view. Much has been made of Carolina's troubles, and yes losing stars like Davis, Foster and Smith does lessen a team's strength. This week though they have improved their overall team fitness while Seattle has taken a beating, and combined with factors like a 'Contrarian Consensus' vote, I'm sold.
Pick: Carolina +8

Miami (+7) at New York Jets
A team that's fresh from recording its first victory of the season (after say the first five weeks) is generally a poor spread play the following week. Advantage New York. Ah, but a team that's just off its first loss of the season after a nice run of wins is arguably an even poorer play. Advantage Miami. There are several factors that think the Dolphins can get it done in successive weeks, and with the Jets struggling to make real headway throwing to their Wide Receivers, I believe the Dolphins defense can hold the Curtis Martin celebration tour in check.
Pick: Miami +7

TMW Subscriber - J.Palazzolo

Residing in Las Vegas, I've come across my share of Sports Handicappers. When it pertains to NFL, I would have to say, and I'm sure that many agree, that Roland and his twominutewarning team are some of the best around. If this match up had a spread it would be Roland favored by 2 points, however don't count the underdog out yet. I have a few tricks up my sleeve and hopefully can take down last year's H2H challenge champion.

-These middle weeks of the NFL season can be tricky. There seems to always be a transition where betting public starts to get pounded at the sports book. Last week was one of those weeks and it will usually continue for many more weeks

-Until last week home dogs against the spread were horrible. Last week was the start of the correction Look for the correction to continue for next few weeks

-When in doubt lean towards the underdog

-I have a solid system 8 year system that gives me about 77% winners in week 8 and is around 63% as a group in weeks 8 thru 15. All I can tell you is that you take a small favorite 3 or less. If you look closely enough you may be able to figure out what's common about my picks that are favorites. My lips are sealed. Its for you to figure out.

-I would be a fool if I totally discounted the awesome information from twominutewarning. The information that I receive will have at least some influence in my picks.

1) Houston -1
2) Washington +2
3) Pittsburgh +3
4) Dallas -3
5) Oakland +5.5

Complete First Round Matchups

WEEK	Expert	TMW Subscriber	WINNER
3	Sports Insights: every wager placed offshore registers at SportsInsights.com	R.Shine (CA)	R.Shine see Picks
4	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author, and creator of the Optimizer NFL software.	J.Kelly (CA)	Mike Orkin see Picks
5	Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.	T.Corpis (CA)	Brandon Funston see Picks
6	Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL stats site FootballOutsiders.com	"Wunderdog"	Aaron Schatz see Picks
7	Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and authority on all things gambling.	S.Penhos (Mexico)	S.Penhos* see Picks
8	Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's H2H Challenge.	J.Palazzolo (NV)	?
9	Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert, author, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com	K.Aird (Canada)	?
10	'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, million dollar winning blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House	M.Gargone (AL)	?