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Frontrunning Teams:
NFL Second Half Lead Percentages
One sign of a dominant team might be a club that not only wins games at a high rate, but also has the lead for the vast majority of the second half. By delving into our play-by-play databases we can calculate the percentages that a team was ahead, behind or tied at different stages of the game.
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Does Jake the Snake really pull off more fourth quarter miracles? Do the top teams get ahead early and never look back? What about wagering considerations like which teams give up the back-door cover with alarming frequency? All these questions seem ripe for a little "course of the game" analysis.
Let's begin with a simple evaluation of what percentage of the second half (and overtime) a team was ahead, behind or tied, in contrast to the actual percentage of their games a team won. We tallied up every standard play (no punts, field goals, kickoffs, etc) and the number of these plays a team was in the lead, trailing, or all even on the scoreboard.
2002 Regular Season Statistics
| Team |
Second Half
Ahead % |
Second Half
Tied/Ahead |
2002
Winning % |
| Philadelphia |
80% |
84% |
75% |
| Oakland |
67% |
76% |
69% |
| Tennessee |
63% |
64% |
69% |
| Green Bay |
61% |
64% |
75% |
| San Francisco |
61% |
69% |
63% |
| Miami |
60% |
65% |
56% |
| Carolina |
57% |
65% |
44% |
| Denver |
57% |
65% |
56% |
| Tampa Bay |
56% |
70% |
75% |
| New York Giants |
56% |
68% |
63% |
| Pittsburgh |
54% |
63% |
66% |
| New Orleans |
53% |
57% |
56% |
| Baltimore |
52% |
56% |
44% |
| Atlanta |
50% |
69% |
59% |
| New York Jets |
50% |
62% |
56% |
| Washington |
47% |
49% |
44% |
| Buffalo |
46% |
58% |
50% |
| Jacksonville |
45% |
54% |
38% |
| San Diego |
44% |
57% |
50% |
| Minnesota |
42% |
54% |
38% |
| New England |
41% |
46% |
56% |
| Seattle |
41% |
52% |
44% |
| Kansas City |
41% |
50% |
50% |
| Indianapolis |
40% |
48% |
63% |
| Cleveland |
38% |
52% |
56% |
| St.Louis |
33% |
37% |
44% |
| Chicago |
31% |
37% |
25% |
| Detroit |
27% |
38% |
19% |
| Houston |
20% |
26% |
25% |
| Dallas |
20% |
39% |
31% |
| Cincinnati |
16% |
19% |
13% |
| Arizona |
10% |
27% |
31% |
So, the best teams of the 2002 season by and large did rate as the top in terms of having the lead, with the three highest percentage sides all making it to the conference championship game. Of course, the Super Bowl winner Buccanners only ranked #9 in "second half ahead percentage" although they were #3 in "ahead/tied" stats. When you look at performance in tight games however, the Bucs come to life as they turned that 56% lead percentage into 75% wins overall -- they were solid in the clutch.
Also noteworthy is that Carolina, a 7-9 team on the year, held the lead 57% of the time in the second half of their games, suggesting their record could have been even better with a few breaks/plays down the stretch.
At the bottom end of the table we find the usual suspects of losing record teams, with the exception of the Cleveland Browns who had the lead during the second half of games only 38% of the time, yet managed to win 56% of their games -- another clutch team (or lucky, depending on your perspective).
As for Jake Plummer's late game touch, he still has some magic in the bag apparently as while the Cardinals were in the lead only 10% of standard plays during the second half and on of games, they won 31% of actual contests!
Let's turn our attention now to the spread based performance.
Spread Performance: 2002 Regular Season Statistics
| Team |
2nd Half
Ahead v Spr. |
2002
Spread W% |
Net: Ahead
vs Final % |
| Carolina |
77% |
63% |
-14% |
| Baltimore |
68% |
63% |
-5% |
| Miami |
65% |
56% |
-9% |
| Oakland |
62% |
63% |
1% |
| Philadelphia |
62% |
63% |
1% |
| San Diego |
61% |
56% |
-5% |
| Tampa Bay |
59% |
63% |
4% |
| Minnesota |
57% |
50% |
-7% |
| San Francisco |
56% |
31% |
-25% |
| Tennessee |
56% |
69% |
14% |
| New York Jets |
56% |
63% |
8% |
| Atlanta |
54% |
63% |
9% |
| New York Giants |
54% |
56% |
2% |
| Kansas City |
53% |
59% |
6% |
| Washington |
52% |
50% |
-2% |
| Houston |
52% |
50% |
-2% |
| Dallas |
51% |
50% |
-1% |
| Buffalo |
50% |
53% |
3% |
| Seattle |
50% |
56% |
6% |
| Cleveland |
49% |
66% |
17% |
| Jacksonville |
48% |
50% |
2% |
| Green Bay |
48% |
50% |
2% |
| New Orleans |
47% |
53% |
6% |
| Denver |
43% |
47% |
4% |
| Pittsburgh |
41% |
38% |
-3% |
| Detroit |
40% |
47% |
7% |
| Chicago |
38% |
31% |
-7% |
| Indianapolis |
37% |
38% |
1% |
| New England |
32% |
38% |
6% |
| Cincinnati |
25% |
25% |
0% |
| Arizona |
24% |
38% |
14% |
| St.Louis |
19% |
25% |
6% |
So it turns out that the Carolina Panthers, who did have a fantastic year against the line, could have been truly the bettor's friend but for some late game failings that cost them the cover on a few occasions (most notorious of course is the last play fumble that was returned for a touchdown by the Saints).
On the other hand, the team which gave its backers the roughest late game turnarounds was undoubtedly the San Francisco 49ers who in spite of having the edge against the line through 56% of the plays in the second half of games, only managed to cover 31% of the time! One of the knocks on coach Mariucci was that he didn't have the 'killer instinct' to put teams away when the Niners had the chance, and that criticism is validated somewhat by the above finding.
The Cleveland Browns were a positive "heart attack special" side, with a pickup of a healthy 17% in the actual spread record versus second half combined plays spread efforts. The Tennessee Titans posted some end of game heroics to wind up winning against the line more often than they "should have" and likewise the Cardinals were able to pull out a few late spread wins.
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