Barrington is a bonafide winner in straight up football office pool type events. He has won multiple prizes, both weekly and season long, in the large Las Vegas "pick every game" contests. He will write a column every week focused strictly on straight up handicapping.
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"I never thought of losing, but now that it's happened, the only thing is to do it right. That's my obligation to all the people who believe in me. We all have to take defeats in life." -- Muhammad Ali, after he lost for the first time
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Success in football contests is like success in anything. Let's do this thing right.
The Henry Rules
#1: Know the odds of a team winning
Home Team is the Favorite
| Spread |
Won |
Lost |
Win% |
| -14.5 |
59 |
6 |
91% |
| -14 |
25 |
4 |
86% |
| -13.5 |
29 |
12 |
71% |
| -13 |
15 |
6 |
71% |
| -12.5 |
13 |
2 |
87% |
| -12 |
17 |
2 |
90% |
| -11.5 |
14 |
2 |
88% |
| -11 |
38 |
7 |
84% |
| -10.5 |
38 |
11 |
78% |
| -10 |
55 |
13 |
81% |
| -9.5 |
46 |
17 |
73% |
| -9 |
52 |
13 |
80% |
| -8.5 |
50 |
14 |
78% |
| -8 |
50 |
14 |
78% |
| -7.5 |
61 |
22 |
74% |
| -7 |
149 |
52 |
74% |
| -6.5 |
86 |
40 |
68% |
| -6 |
93 |
41 |
69% |
| -5.5 |
81 |
32 |
72% |
| -5 |
43 |
23 |
65% |
| -4.5 |
48 |
34 |
59% |
| -4 |
88 |
36 |
71% |
| -3.5 |
112 |
68 |
62% |
| -3 |
168 |
109 |
61% |
| -2.5 |
92 |
56 |
62% |
| -2 |
28 |
35 |
44% |
| -1.5 |
48 |
36 |
57% |
| -1 |
38 |
38 |
50% |
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Away Team is the Favorite
| Spread |
Won |
Lost |
Win% |
| 14.5 |
11 |
1 |
92% |
| 14 |
3 |
0 |
100% |
| 13.5 |
2 |
0 |
100% |
| 13 |
3 |
3 |
50% |
| 12.5 |
3 |
2 |
60% |
| 12 |
3 |
0 |
100% |
| 11.5 |
6 |
0 |
100% |
| 11 |
5 |
2 |
71% |
| 10.5 |
12 |
4 |
75% |
| 10 |
15 |
7 |
68% |
| 9.5 |
16 |
4 |
80% |
| 9 |
12 |
1 |
92% |
| 8.5 |
13 |
1 |
93% |
| 8 |
14 |
8 |
64% |
| 7.5 |
15 |
12 |
56% |
| 7 |
50 |
27 |
65% |
| 6.5 |
41 |
12 |
77% |
| 6 |
30 |
16 |
65% |
| 5.5 |
30 |
7 |
81% |
| 5 |
26 |
6 |
81% |
| 4.5 |
25 |
12 |
68% |
| 4 |
40 |
14 |
74% |
| 3.5 |
57 |
44 |
56% |
| 3 |
139 |
100 |
58% |
| 2.5 |
47 |
52 |
48% |
| 2 |
23 |
30 |
43% |
| 1.5 |
37 |
41 |
47% |
| 1 |
24 |
29 |
45% |
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No Favorite
| Spread |
Home |
Away |
Win% |
| 0 |
31 |
28 |
52% |
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The Henry Rules
#2: Upsets happen
| Games |
Number |
Number of Favorites winning |
| in Week |
of Weeks |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| 14 |
97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
19 |
12 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
| 15 |
68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
13 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
| 16 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 14 |
97 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
6% |
12% |
16% |
23% |
20% |
12% |
9% |
1% |
0% |
|
|
| 15 |
68 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
4% |
3% |
19% |
15% |
21% |
19% |
12% |
6% |
1% |
0% |
|
| 16 |
27 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
4% |
0% |
4% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
26% |
26% |
11% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
The teams laying the points have never and I repeat NEVER won every game in a week.
The Henry Rules
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
| Away Team |
Home Team |
Spread |
Likely Winner |
Odds of Winning* |
| Houston |
Cincinnati |
-9.5 |
Cincinnati |
78% |
| Green Bay |
Carolina |
-8 |
Carolina |
76% |
| Detroit |
Tampa Bay |
-7 |
Tampa Bay |
72% |
| N.Y. Jets |
Baltimore |
-7 |
Baltimore |
72% |
| Minnesota |
Atlanta |
-6 |
Atlanta |
70% |
| San Diego |
New England |
-5.5 |
New England |
69% |
| Indianapolis |
Tennessee |
7 |
Indianapolis |
68% |
| Denver |
Jacksonville |
-3.5 |
Jacksonville |
63% |
| Dallas |
Oakland |
-3.5 |
Oakland |
63% |
| St. Louis |
N.Y. Giants |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
61% |
| San Francisco |
Arizona |
-2.5 |
Arizona |
59% |
| Philadelphia |
Kansas City |
-2 |
Kansas City |
57% |
| Seattle |
Washington |
-2 |
Washington |
57% |
| Buffalo |
New Orleans |
0 |
New Orleans |
52% |
*=smoother chart (next week)
Now you give it the shift. You lay down your own thinking on top of this. You may think St. Louis is gonna give New York all they can handle and you move the percentage down. How much is an art and that depends on whether you know what you are talking about. If you know nothing at all about football leave it alone. But if you know football you might move the numbers 5%, 10% even 15% if you've got something inside you that says this game is going to be like this.
Next week I'm going to tell you more Henry Rules and soon you may be winning just as much as I do.
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Full Story" Office Pool Picks (Thurs.)
Office Pool W-L records & standings
Find out more:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
'Ready to Win' in 2005: our suite of tools to attack the lines this season
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