Barrington is a bonafide winner in straight up football office pool type events. He has won multiple prizes, both weekly and season long, in the large Las Vegas "pick every game" contests. He will write a column every week focused strictly on straight up handicapping.
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"I used to want the words She tried on my tombstone. Now I want She did it." -- Katherine Dunham
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The Henry Rules
#1: Know the odds of a team winning
#2: Upsets happen
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
The Henry Rules
#4: Don't get crazy
People get tempted to play all kinds of wildass picks. Like San Francisco beating Indianapolis this week. Don't do it. You will not win like that. I don't play against no big favorites. A team that is touchdown better on the line is going to win three out of every four times.
If you can pick a touchdown dog that wins half the time you would make MONEY just by betting that sucker on the moneyline. You are not that good do not kid yourself.
Full season contests be smart about any kind of upsets you pick.
One week bets it's ok to reach. But don't get crazy.
Take a big contest like Friendly Frank's. Four weeks into the season and out of thousands of people almost no one beats the favorites.
45 wins = 3 people
44 wins = 12 people
43 wins = 49 people
42 wins = 138 people
41 wins = 310 people
All favorites = 40 wins
You only need to have picked ONE upset and the rest all favorites to be in the money for a $1,000 prize right now. It's easy to win a season contest just by playing it cool and taking the easy favorite winners.
To win a weekly prize is hard man. In Friendly's you may have to be perfect or only one loss. That's tough.
Know what you are trying to accomplish.
The Henry Rules
#5: The last game matters
Home Team is the Favorite
| Last Game |
Won by 14+ |
Won by 0-13 |
Lost by 1-13 |
Lost by 14+ |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| -10 or more |
94/114 |
82% |
100/115 |
87% |
72/92 |
78% |
28/36 |
78% |
| -7 to -9.5 |
79/101 |
78% |
139/194 |
72% |
116/148 |
78% |
44/58 |
76% |
| -3.5 to -6.5 |
97/144 |
67% |
197/281 |
70% |
150/234 |
64% |
73/118 |
62% |
| -3 |
25/40 |
63% |
56/92 |
61% |
48/81 |
59% |
25/47 |
53% |
| -1 to -2.5 |
28/37 |
76% |
56/105 |
53% |
62/122 |
51% |
40/74 |
54% |
No Favorite
| Home Last Game |
Won by 14+ |
Won by 0-13 |
Lost by 1-13 |
Lost by 14+ |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| 0 |
3/9 |
33% |
8/15 |
53% |
8/21 |
38% |
6/10 |
60% |
Away Team is the Favorite
| Last Game |
Won by 14+ |
Won by 0-13 |
Lost by 1-13 |
Lost by 14+ |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| -1 to -2.5 |
32/61 |
52% |
40/110 |
36% |
35/65 |
54% |
17/31 |
55% |
| -3 |
28/55 |
51% |
46/82 |
56% |
42/62 |
68% |
10/20 |
50% |
| -3.5 to -6.5 |
67/95 |
71% |
89/130 |
68% |
61/86 |
71% |
15/24 |
63% |
| -7 to -9.5 |
45/65 |
69% |
42/60 |
70% |
19/32 |
59% |
8/9 |
89% |
| -10 or more |
24/36 |
67% |
25/31 |
81% |
10/11 |
91% |
3/3 |
100% |
Use this chart to pick good upset spots.
Like Away favorites from -1 to -2.5 that won small in the last game are one type of favorite you should beat.
Back to rule number three:
The Henry Rules
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
| Away Team |
Home Team |
Spread |
Likely Winner |
Odds of Winning* |
| Indianapolis |
San Francisco |
14 |
Indianapolis |
95% |
| Washington |
Denver |
-6.5 |
Denver |
70% |
| Tampa Bay |
N.Y. Jets |
3.5 |
Tampa Bay |
61% |
| Philadelphia |
Dallas |
3.5 |
Philadelphia |
61% |
| Chicago |
Cleveland |
-3 |
Cleveland |
61% |
| New England |
Atlanta |
-3 |
Atlanta |
61% |
| New Orleans |
Green Bay |
-3 |
Green Bay |
61% |
| Tennessee |
Houston |
-3 |
Houston |
61% |
| Pittsburgh |
San Diego |
-3 |
San Diego |
61% |
| Seattle |
St. Louis |
-3 |
St. Louis |
61% |
| Carolina |
Arizona |
3 |
Carolina |
58% |
| Miami |
Buffalo |
-2.5 |
Buffalo |
58% |
| Cincinnati |
Jacksonville |
-2.5 |
Jacksonville |
58% |
| Baltimore |
Detroit |
-1 |
Detroit |
53% |
*=smoother chart
Now give it the shift. Don't be messing with the Indy and Denver. Just write them in.
From rule 5 you know that St. Louis is only 53% to win since they got smoked last week. You know that Buffalo and Jacksonville and Detroit are all 51% cause they lost last week.
Maybe you got a hunch on a game. Move it 5%. Maybe 10%.
You think you are 15% smarter than the people who do these lines for a living??
Also See:
Henry's Column week four
Straight-up quick picks
Full Story" Office Pool Picks (Thurs.)
Office Pool W-L records & standings
Find out more:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
'Ready to Win' in 2005: our suite of tools to attack the lines this season
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