Barrington is a bonafide winner in straight up football office pool type events. He has won multiple prizes, both weekly and season long, in the large Las Vegas "pick every game" contests. He will write a column every week focused strictly on straight up handicapping.
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"People pay for what they do, and still more for what they have allowed themselves to become. And they pay for it very simply; by the lives they lead." -- James Baldwin
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The Henry Rules
#1: Know the odds of a team winning
#2: Upsets happen
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
#4: Don't get crazy
#5: The last game matters
The Henry Rules
#6: Season has stages
Home Team is Favorite
|
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13+ |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| -10 or more |
70/85 |
82% |
62/74 |
84% |
68/90 |
76% |
104/120 |
87% |
| -7 to -9.5 |
105/135 |
78% |
83/115 |
72% |
89/120 |
74% |
131/170 |
77% |
| -3.5 to -6.5 |
130/202 |
64% |
116/171 |
68% |
137/205 |
67% |
168/247 |
68% |
| -3 |
39/58 |
67% |
37/55 |
67% |
45/75 |
60% |
47/89 |
53% |
| -1 to -2.5 |
54/106 |
51% |
56/92 |
61% |
45/76 |
59% |
51/97 |
53% |
No Favorite
|
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13+ |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| 0 |
9/11 |
82% |
6/15 |
40% |
3/12 |
25% |
10/21 |
48% |
Away Team is the Favorite
|
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13+ |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| -1 to -2.5 |
37/66 |
56% |
35/72 |
49% |
28/57 |
49% |
31/88 |
35% |
| -3 |
35/56 |
63% |
27/52 |
52% |
35/56 |
63% |
42/75 |
56% |
| -3.5 to -6.5 |
59/77 |
77% |
51/71 |
72% |
69/101 |
68% |
70/111 |
63% |
| -7 to -9.5 |
25/34 |
74% |
21/34 |
62% |
34/43 |
79% |
40/62 |
65% |
| -10 or more |
8/13 |
62% |
13/20 |
65% |
15/17 |
88% |
27/32 |
84% |
The Henry Rules
#7: Look at the Won-Loss Record
Home Team is Favorite
|
Win <35% |
Win 36-49% |
Win 50-64% |
Win >65% |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| -10 |
18/27 |
67% |
13/15 |
87% |
72/96 |
75% |
191/219 |
87% |
| -7 to -9.5 |
56/72 |
78% |
35/48 |
73% |
112/154 |
73% |
175/227 |
77% |
| -3.5 to -6.5 |
101/149 |
68% |
69/101 |
68% |
168/254 |
66% |
179/272 |
66% |
| -3 |
34/64 |
53% |
25/42 |
60% |
49/83 |
59% |
46/71 |
65% |
| -1 to -2.5 |
66/123 |
54% |
27/54 |
50% |
54/94 |
57% |
39/67 |
58% |
No Favorite
|
Win <35% |
Win 36-49% |
Win 50-64% |
Win >65% |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| 0 |
5/9 |
56% |
3/11 |
27% |
8/18 |
44% |
9/17 |
53% |
Away Team is the Favorite
|
Win <35% |
Win 36-49% |
Win 50-64% |
Win >65% |
| Spread |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
Won |
Win% |
| -1 to -2.5 |
15/34 |
44% |
20/41 |
49% |
40/94 |
43% |
49/98 |
50% |
| -3 |
19/25 |
76% |
13/25 |
52% |
39/64 |
61% |
54/104 |
52% |
| -3.5 to -6.5 |
20/30 |
67% |
21/32 |
66% |
67/99 |
68% |
124/174 |
71% |
| -7 to -9.5 |
2/4 |
50% |
2/5 |
40% |
21/39 |
54% |
89/118 |
75% |
| -10 |
0/0 |
|
1/1 |
100% |
11/14 |
79% |
50/66 |
76% |
Back to rule number three:
The Henry Rules
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
| Away Team |
Home Team |
Spread |
Likely Winner |
Odds of Winning* |
| St. Louis |
Indianapolis |
-13.5 |
Indianapolis |
88% |
| Houston |
Seattle |
-9.5 |
Seattle |
78% |
| Cleveland |
Baltimore |
-5.5 |
Baltimore |
69% |
| Washington |
Kansas City |
-5.5 |
Kansas City |
69% |
| Miami |
Tampa Bay |
-4.5 |
Tampa Bay |
65% |
| Atlanta |
New Orleans |
4.5 |
Atlanta |
65% |
| N.Y. Giants |
Dallas |
-3.5 |
Dallas |
64% |
| Minnesota |
Chicago |
-3 |
Chicago |
62% |
| New England |
Denver |
-3 |
Denver |
62% |
| N.Y. Jets |
Buffalo |
-3 |
Buffalo |
62% |
| Jacksonville |
Pittsburgh |
-2.5 |
Pittsburgh |
58% |
| Cincinnati |
Tennessee |
3 |
Cincinnati |
56% |
| Carolina |
Detroit |
-1 |
Detroit |
53% |
| San Diego |
Oakland |
2 |
Oakland |
52% |
*=smoother chart
Give it the shift. You know the drill.
I am not going to tell you how I'm adjusting it cause you might be in the same contest! I'm just giving you clues and you got to know for yourself what to do with it.
If you know inside you that some team's gonna rise up and knock off the favorite you move it 5%. Maybe 10%.
Use the other things I've shown you to help you shift the numbers.
If you know nothing about football just leave it alone. You'll beat most people on the block.
Also See:
Henry's Column week five
Henry's Column week four
Straight-up quick picks
Full Story" Office Pool Picks (Thurs.)
Office Pool W-L records & standings
Find out more:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
'Ready to Win' in 2005: our suite of tools to attack the lines this season
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