Barrington is a bonafide winner in straight up football office pool type events. He has won multiple prizes, both weekly and season long, in the large Las Vegas "pick every game" contests.
|
"If now isn't a good time for the truth I don't see when we'll get to it."
-- Nikki Giovanni
|
NFL 2008 results:
Week Nine
Adjusted Odds: 10-4, 76 points
Unadjusted Odds: 9-5, 77 points
Season
Adjusted Odds: 91-39, 705 points
Unadjusted Odds: 89-41, 703 points
- see Week Eight picks
- see Week Seven picks
- see Week Six picks
- see Week Five picks
- see Week Four picks
- see Week Three picks
- see Week Two picks
- see Week One picks
The Henry Rules
#1: Know the odds of a team winning
#2: Upsets happen
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
#4: Don't get crazy
#5: The last game matters
#6: Season has stages
#7: Look at the won-loss record
#8: Division, Conference, Non Conference
#9: Travel Counts
#10: The NFL means pain
#11: Loser teams have excuses ready
#12: It's all about the Quarterback
#13: Emotion Commotion
Most important is #3.
The Henry Rules
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
--- Odds of Winning is odds of winning game STRAIGHT-UP (Spread NOT considered!)
UNADJUSTED ODDS (not his picks)
| Away Team |
Home Team |
Spread |
Likely Winner |
Odds of Winning* |
| Detroit |
Chicago |
-13 |
Chicago |
83% |
| Dallas |
N.Y. Giants |
-8 |
N.Y. Giants |
76% |
| Tampa Bay |
Kansas City |
8 |
Tampa Bay |
76% |
| Jacksonville |
Cincinnati |
7.5 |
Jacksonville |
75% |
| Philadelphia |
Seattle |
7 |
Philadelphia |
73% |
| N.Y. Jets |
Buffalo |
-5.5 |
Buffalo |
68% |
| Green Bay |
Tennessee |
-5.5 |
Tennessee |
68% |
| New England |
Indianapolis |
-5.5 |
Indianapolis |
68% |
| Houston |
Minnesota |
-4.5 |
Minnesota |
66% |
| Miami |
Denver |
-3 |
Denver |
62% |
| Arizona |
St. Louis |
3 |
Arizona |
59% |
| Atlanta |
Oakland |
3 |
Atlanta |
59% |
| Baltimore |
Cleveland |
-1.5 |
Cleveland |
54% |
| Pittsburgh |
Washington |
-1.5 |
Washington |
54% |
*=smoother chart
The above numbers are the raw odds of winning. Now you got to give it the shift. Long time readers know what I'm talking about.
The type of pool makes a difference. Season long you want to be conservative. Small shifts only. Don't get crazy.
The next numbers are my base season long pool picks:
BARRINGTON's ADJUSTED ODDS
| Away Team |
Home Team |
Spread |
Pick |
Adjusted Odds |
| Detroit |
Chicago |
-13 |
Chicago |
86% |
| Jacksonville |
Cincinnati |
7.5 |
Jacksonville |
85% |
| Dallas |
N.Y. Giants |
-8 |
N.Y. Giants |
79% |
| Philadelphia |
Seattle |
7 |
Philadelphia |
78% |
| Green Bay |
Tennessee |
-5.5 |
Tennessee |
75% |
| Tampa Bay |
Kansas City |
8 |
Tampa Bay |
70% |
| Miami |
Denver |
-3 |
Denver |
65% |
| Arizona |
St. Louis |
3 |
Arizona |
61% |
| N.Y. Jets |
Buffalo |
-5.5 |
Buffalo |
60% |
| Houston |
Minnesota |
-4.5 |
Minnesota |
60% |
| Atlanta |
Oakland |
3 |
Atlanta |
59% |
| New England |
Indianapolis |
-5.5 |
Indianapolis |
58% |
| Pittsburgh |
Washington |
-1.5 |
Washington |
53% |
| Baltimore |
Cleveland |
-1.5 |
Baltimore |
51% |
