Are the Chicago Bears a good value at 5-1 to win the NFC?

However good Chicago QB Rex Grossman might be, that really isn't the point.

The Bears, pride of my once hometown and the football place of NFL legends, are surely on the most improbable of Super Bowl runs. That is, with the best defense in the league and their biggest nemesis (finally) stored safely on the bench, Detroit and February are more than a possibility.

Think probability.

Sans Kyle Orton, the Bears are the NFC's team-to-beat. And not because they're that good, but rather, because he was that bad.

Very, very, very bad.

That's Orton, the second-worst offensive player in the NFL according to PROTRADE's Expected Scoring ("ES") system, who was so horrid that while charged with guiding Chicago to score points, he instead cost his team five touchdowns this season.

Think about that-- the Bears haven't given up more than three touchdowns to an opponent all year. But their starting quarterback has cost them five.

Specifically-- Orton's play through 15 games was worth negative 32.97 points to the Bears, as measured by ES. Only rookie QB Alex Smith (-34.17), guiding the two-win 49ers, has been worse, and after that nobody else ranks even close.

The next "worst" QB starters to Orton and Smith this season have been Houston's David Carr (-5.05), the Jets' Brooks Bollinger (-3.45), and Baltimore's Kyle Boller (-1.94). All haven't helped or hurt that much either. But all also play for last place teams.

The Bears are a first place team; one which leads the NFC North comfortably and has all season.

If John Davidson and Cathy Lee Crosby still had the will, this team would have made a mesmerizing show segment. No doubt Fran Tarkenton, a former QB himself, would have appreciated how the Bears could win even with Orton, statistically the team's worst enemy, sabotaging them from under center.

Until Sunday night, some pro-Orton luddites were fond of touting his "intangibles," whatever they were, that somehow "willed" Chicago into the playoff hunt.

Here's a reasoned reality check: like the Loch Ness Monster and Big Foot, such "intangibles" and "will" over a season are merely figments of a John Madden-weary imagination. Football performance is highly measurable. The numbers created by a system like ES cannot and don't want to lie. In the long run, their conclusions are undeniable.

Starting even a worthless-- but not destructive- QB this season, Chicago would no doubt be 12-2. And with a guy passing like Grossman did against Atlanta, they might well be 14-0.

14-0?

You heard it here first. Seattle, New York, and the other NFC comers need to change their scouting reports: the weight has been lifted.

Ma was also the protagonist from the book Bringing Down the House, the true story of Ma's MIT blackjack team and it multi-million dollar conquest of Las Vegas. Go to www.protrade.com/bdth to compete to win an all expense paid trip to Vegas to watch the Final Four with Ma.