NFL selections from Kevin Lewis If you are one of the millions of people who has already read the "Bringing Down the House" bestseller, then Kevin Lewis will need no introduction. He is the central character and 'big player' in the team of MIT students who won millions of dollars at Blackjack over a span of several years from casinos throughout the country. His expertise however extends well beyond the game of '21' and indeed over the past two seasons he has published weekly picks for every single game, with a winning record of better than 55%! Kevin will also be a participant in our Head-to-Head Challenge.

NFL Week Four

In order to get out of this rut we must analyze how we got here. It is very important for the sports bettor to look at what assumptions he has been operating at so far this season and see which of them are correct and which are incorrect.

Here are some of the assumptions that I have been operating under.

1. Miami is not a significantly different team than last year. FALSE. The loss of Ricky Williams has had an adverse affect on this team. Not too mention a team wide dissension against Wannstedt who believes that offense should only be on the field long enough to rest the defense. If the D on this team shows signs of quitting, watch out as this team will fall off the face of the map.
2. Baltimore is nothing short of mediocre. FALSE. The Baltimore defense really has some special players beyond Ray Lewis. Add in a patient game plan that may not look pretty and you have a team that will grind out wins against teams absent the firepower to really go after the Baltimore D.
3. The Cowboys are overrated and are a team to go against. Well the jury is still out on this one. They got beat soundly in Week 1 and were a Jeff Garcia meltdown away from losing to a beat up Browns team. Their defeat of Washington is less impressive when you consider that the two most crucial plays in that game were a terrible call by the referee and a gimmick play (probably a “Jap” play). Add in the fact that Washington actually outgained the Cowboys by a 100 yards and I still think you have a team to go against.
4. KC, Carolina and St. Louis are vastly overrated and are teams to go against. Partially true. All of these teams are worse than last season but the question is how much worse. KC has proven to be weak against the run but that is something we knew already. Carolina has issues with injury but will be well coached and should be competitive throughout the season. St. Louis is coached by the worst game management coach in the NFL. To have Faulk and Jackson in your backfield and to run as few times as they do is criminal. The bottom line is these three teams are down but the lines are probably already caught up with them. If not this week, they will be soon.
5. Atlanta is vastly improved and will be a cash cow this season. Jury is still out on this one. They are 1-2 against the spread and come off what can only be called a pathetic performance against one of the worst teams in football. But the bottom line is they are 3-0 and they have a defense that can put real pressure on the QB. Big game for them this weekend against Carolina.

GB -7 over NYG
Giants have too many holes on defense to stop the Pack, a team in dire need of a win. Giants may keep the game close for a bit as Pack D is a bit beat up but at the end of the day I expect Pack to win this game by double digits.

Chi +9 over Philly
Philly is hot but the bottom line is this their second straight road game and they come are due for a bit of a let down.

Washington -3 @ Cleveland
Road dog favorite worth taking. Cleveland is in a heap of trouble as they are too beat up and Washington’s defense will give Cleveland a lot of trouble.

Buffalo +5.5. over NE
Will be a typical NE victory but I expect Buf to keep it close with what is a very underrated defense and a high level of motivation.

Houston +2 versus Oakland
Oakland comes off emotional victory against former family members. Houston got things straightened out last week and I expect them to win this game.

Indy -3.5 @ Jax
Just think Jax will have trouble stopping the aerial assault that is the Indy offense.

Cincy +3.5 @ Pit
May be a dumb pick but something tells me that Carson will pick apart this Steelers defense.

Atlanta +3.5 @ Carolina
Vick has won his last three versus Carolina and this was the game the Falcons were looking ahead to last week as the slept walked through their game with Arizona.

Arizona +3 over NO
NO is too inconsistent to be backed on the road and the Cards keep it close in the desert and may even sneak out with a victory.

Jets -6 @ Miami
This game will be low scoring making 6 points very appealing but at the end of the day I think that Miami will continue to lose until they fire Wannstedt

TB +3 over Denver
TB wins this game 9-7 off of three field goals and some ill advised Jake Plummer passes.

SF +3.5 over St. Louis
Love the Niners here. They may be bad but so is St. Louis and those same Rams are atrocious on the road.

Baltimore -5.5 over KC
Giving 5.5 with Kyle Boller as your starting QB is quite a worry but the Baltimore defense and RB combo might be just too much for KC to overcome.

also see: Kevin Lewis' Week One Picks
also see: Kevin Lewis' Week Two Picks
also see: Kevin Lewis' Week Three Picks

Learn more about what Kevin is up to at KevinLewisBlackjack.com