"Week That Was" Research, part I

Feast your eyes friends, because this episode is entitled Tim strikes back!

• "We thought Tim might eventually be good for something" they would tell people apologetically during those, some would say, bleak years when Tim's approval ratings were in the septic tank.
• "Sorry about that off-color joke and questionable use of copyrighted information in a plagiaristic fashion" they would answer the various desultory and derogatory and litigious responses to the weekly column that was once Two Minute Tim's enterprise.

Indeed, loyal readers may remember that Tim got the sack at the conclusion of last season (see the Week-That-Was wrapup for that torrid tale). Ah, but there's no telling where groveling and pleading will get you in this life, and here I am, the cat of nine lives, the black sheep of the TwoMinuteWarning family, but with an actual, bonafide, genuine mission to accomplish: figure out if these here 'week that was' numbers have any predictive power for the follow-up games.

If you were around these parts last year, you'll know the general drill: each week I post a page with charts like the below for all the games with my brief 'synopsis' in the comment box.

NFL 2003 Season, Week 2 -- Carolina at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 37% 11% 3.6 64 30% 8% 3.9 55 0 Tampa Bay 37% 4% 2.9 67 42% 4% 5.0 91 29 The WRONG TEAM WON! No duh. Bucs were laughably cavalier about this game, yet would have won if they could have converted an extra point with no time left. Instead, blocked! This after two field goals were blocked earlier. Lack of a running game for Tampa is a problem long term, but short term, no worries mate.

Now some among the TwoMinuteWarning illuminati (of which clearly I am not a member, otherwise let me tell you there'd be some changes to this dump!) have apparently the opinion that this regular part of the week is under-utilized (some have even suggested ~shudder~ that it might be better off letting someone other than Tim handle the commentary duties).

As a result the first thing in the works is to post all the "W-T-W" charts for a team on a page so you can stroll through the season at your leisure, getting the full flavor. The second point of all this importance of being earnest, is that big bad Tim has been equipped with a five year database to play around with. Let's get to it.

Case Study #1:
Teams ending up as the loser in a "WRONG TEAM WON" match

Well mateys, the overall 53% isn't anything to write home about, but how about those underdogs? The 77-55 is 58.3% friends, which is just a shade below my lifetime college application rejection rate (and you wonder why I have irrational dislike, and tendencies to wager against, certain of those NCAA schools of higher learning!)

In addition, if big dogs are your love, take a gander of that 21-7 (75%) number for dogs getting more than a touchdown on the line. Curiously teams losing by 1 or 2 points don't do as well in the next event, which if my memory serves me is in line with a trend that the 1-2 point loss is bad in general.

Hypothesis: methinks the Wrong Team Won LOSERS are good bets the next game as underdogs.

But wait Tim! Maybe there are some office pool players lurking with theretofore more concern in the straight-up outcome? Enjoy.

Hmmm, if you're hankering for some upsets, the Wrong-Team-Won Losers are good candidates as small underdogs of 0 to 3 points (27-22), but suspect as small favorites. As big dogs they are worth lowering the weighting if you play against them, but also make for a fair shot in the dark stab at a separator in pools with tons O'people.

Case Study #2:
Teams ending up as the winner in a "WRONG TEAM WON" match

Ya might have thunk that a team getting lucky the week before might not be so hot the next time, and outside of away underdogs you would be right. Beware the home dog coming off a 7+ point win that was bested by the statistics of that game...we're talking 1-10 against the line over the past five years in the follow-up!

Conclusion: slim pickings for prediction practitioners.

Almost the same deal as the Losers class: upsets are frequent in the 0-3 spread zone.

Righty-ho, that's today's news on the Week That Was front. Assuming I don't get canned in the meantime there may be some more of these here doo-dads using the five-year thingy. Like geez, what happens to a team that passes like crud in a game the next time out? Stay tuned...

See Also:
'Week That Was' research part II (Subscriber Feature)
'Week That Was' research part III (Subscriber Feature)
'Week That Was' research part IV (Subscriber Feature)