MAXWELL REPORTAs I mentioned last year in the introductory bio, I'm a mathematician working with sports forecasting models and simulations now for some 20 years. Since I had a moderately successful 2008 year in NFL Sides for TMW, they invited me back for 2009. With the pressure on, I’ve spent a lot of time in the off season improving the model. Good news: in back-testing over the last 15 years, it looks to be much improved. The older version worked for every year except for 2005 and 1997. This year’s version has filled those holes and improved the other year’s results as well, and so hopefully should do well in 2009.What is somewhat unique about my effort is I try to quantify the risk of each bet so that those of you who like to use the Kelly Criterion can get an idea of risk to your bankroll on each pick. For others, I’ll use the Century unit system, i.e. each unit is equal to 1% of your bankroll. Also for this year, I have extended the model to do NFL Totals, and I will try a new simulation out on College football. Neither of these models (CFB Sides or NFL Totals) will have the risk modeling associated with them, at least initially, but as the season goes on, and if the results hold up, I may be able to quantify the risk. When and if that happens, I will advise in this column. The table below is an example of the format I will be using this year. On the gray part of the table (left side) will be the Sides selections by Team Picked, Sides Line, Expected Sides win %, and Sides Units. The Purple area is the Totals figures, with over/unders selected, and once I can quantify risk in Totals, expected win%, and units.
College Football will have a similar format to the NFL Sides format, but will not include risk for at least the first several weeks. If you have any questions about the setup or the picks, write me at: Maxwell.TMW@gmail.com May you have a great football season.
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