The following table shows how home teams with certain offensive/defensive rankings have done in matchups in the fifth week of the season and beyond using this rating scheme for both rushing yards and passing yards:
- Top 10 Ranking worth one point
- Rank of 11 to 20 worth two points
- Rank of 21+ worth 3 points
| Factors |
Home Rank
Points |
Spread W-L |
Spread Win% |
| Rushing Defense + Passing Defense |
2 |
210-161 |
57% |
| Rushing Offense + Passing Defense |
2 |
206-141 |
59% |
| Passing Offense + Passing Defense |
6 |
47-76* |
38% |
* as favorites
Not that this constitutes a great deal of meaningful data, but based on this table there are three combinations that have been some distance from the 50% expected value. A few teams might be worth a closer look here in 2008:
- Dallas - Rank #7 in rushing defense and #8 in passing defense
- Atlanta - face a home team _Minnesota_ that ranks #26 in passing offense and #22 in passing defense
- N.Y. Giants - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #1 in rushing offense, #4 in rushing defense and #10 in passing defense
- Tennessee - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #5 in rushing offense, #9 in rushing defense and #5 in passing defense
- Washington - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #8 in rushing offense, #10 in rushing defense and #6 in passing defense
- Oakland - Rank #10 in rushing offense and #9 in passing defense
- Green Bay - face a home team _Chicago_ that ranks #22 in passing offense and #28 in passing defense
Nathan's "Quick" Analysis: A good week for the Trends column at 5-1 heading into tonight's game. Bears have a lot to play for, Packers not so much and the Bears have that earlier in the season mashing to payback. The Trends says Packers again.
Favor: Green Bay +4
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