NFL Preseason Picks: Week One
The strategies employed are based on our research series (see the article links above or below for detail).
Week one preseason picks as follows with lines posted as of 8/08 -- see Bodog Preseason lines for latest info.
NFL Preseason picks for August 10th-14th
| Date |
Away Team |
Home Team |
Line |
Strategies
for Away |
Strategies
for Home |
Pick |
| 10-Aug |
Cleveland |
Philadephia |
-3.0 |
4, 7, 12 |
|
Cleveland |
| 10-Aug |
Indianapolis |
St. Louis |
-5.0 |
1, 4, 9 |
|
Indianapolis |
| 11-Aug |
NY Jets |
Tampa Bay |
-3.5 |
4 |
|
|
| 11-Aug |
Denver |
Detroit |
+3.0 |
|
4, 7 |
Detroit |
| 11-Aug |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
-3.0 |
1, 4 |
|
NY Giants |
| 11-Aug |
New England |
Atlanta |
-3.0 |
1, 4, 9 |
|
New England |
| 11-Aug |
Chicago |
San Francisco |
+3.0 |
|
4, 7 |
San Francisco |
| 12-Aug |
Pittsburgh |
Arizona |
-3.0 |
1, 4, 8, 9 |
|
Pittsburgh |
| 12-Aug |
Buffalo |
Carolina |
-3.5 |
4 |
|
|
| 12-Aug |
Jacksonville |
Miami |
-1.5 |
1, 4 |
|
Jacksonville |
| 12-Aug |
Kansas City |
Houston |
+0.0 |
|
4 |
|
| 12-Aug |
New Orleans |
Tennessee |
-3.0 |
4, 8, 12 |
|
New Orleans |
| 12-Aug |
Green Bay |
San Diego |
-3.5 |
4 |
|
|
| 12-Aug |
Dallas |
Seattle |
-3.0 |
4, 11 |
|
Dallas |
| 13-Aug |
Washington |
Cincinnati |
-1.0 |
4 |
|
|
| 14-Aug |
Oakland |
Minnesota |
-2.5 |
7, 10 |
|
Oakland |
To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing NFL preseason games, here are the situations we'll be looking for in the 2006 preseason:
NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
- Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 46-68 (40%)...and this drops to 30-53 (36%) when the team is laying a field goal or more
- Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 23-11 (68%)
- In week two, POOR prior season teams are an amazing 37-15 (71%) versus the line against GOOD or AVERAGE and especially strong as road warriors, where they are 22-5 versus good/average home teams.
NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in
- In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 92-66 record (58%)...but even better if you use wager early as opposed to at closing.
- Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (35-13 for 73%)
- (Week 4) -- two or more win away underdogs are 20-2 against one win home sides, while two plus win home teams are 7-1 as home dogs.
NFL Preseason research: team 2-year history
- Back Poor-Poor teams as UNDERDOGS
- Go against Poor-Poor teams as FAVORITES
- Back Good-Good teams as UNDERDOGS
- Go against Average-Average teams as FAVORITES
- Back Poor-Average teams as UNDERDOGS
(#12) In Week 1: POOR prior season teams are 3-14 as favorites at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams
As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the picks we will provide are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games. Tread lightly!
Final 2005 Preseason Picks Record:
All Picks: 23-12
3+ Strategies in effect: 11-4
2 Strategies in effect: 9-5
1 Strategies in effect: 3-3
3+ Strategies edge: 9-3
2 Strategies edge: 10-6
1 Strategies edge: 4-3
Find out more:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
Also see:
NFL.com Preseason Standings
Pro-Football-Reference Prior Year G/A/P Records
ESPN Preseason Coverage
SportsLine NFL Preseason
FoxSports NFL
Football Outsiders Team Rankings
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