NFL Preseason Picks: Week Four
2006 Record
All Picks: 10-9-1
3+ Strategies edge: 2-3
2 Strategies edge: 8-6
1 Strategies edge: (8-7)
Review the Week One picks, Week Two picks, and Week Three picks.
The preseason picks in 2005 posted a 23-12 record with a similar approach.
The strategies employed are based on our research series (see the article links above or below for detail).
Week two preseason picks as follows with lines posted as of 8/29 -- see Bodog Preseason lines for latest info.
NFL Preseason picks for August 31st-September 1st
| Date |
Away Team |
Home Team |
Line |
Strategies
for Away |
Strategies
for Home |
Pick |
| 31-Aug |
Carolina |
Pittsburgh |
+3.0 |
|
2, 9 |
Pittsburgh |
| 31-Aug |
New England |
NY Giants |
-3.0 |
9 |
|
|
| 31-Aug |
St. Louis |
Miami |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| 31-Aug |
Buffalo |
Detroit |
-3.5 |
8 |
|
|
| 31-Aug |
Jacksonville |
Atlanta |
-3.5 |
1 |
|
|
| 31-Aug |
Baltimore |
Washington |
+1.0 |
|
2 |
|
| 31-Aug |
Tampa Bay |
Houston |
-7.0 |
1 |
|
|
| 31-Aug |
Minnesota |
Dallas |
-7.0 |
|
|
|
| 31-Aug |
Chicago |
Cleveland |
-2.5 |
1, 8 |
|
Chicago |
| 31-Aug |
New Orleans |
Kansas City |
+1.0 |
|
2 |
|
| 31-Aug |
Denver |
Arizona |
-3.0 |
1, 8, 9 |
|
Denver |
| 31-Aug |
Oakland |
Seattle |
+1.0 |
5, 6 |
2, 8 |
|
| 1-Sep |
Tennessee |
Green Bay |
-3.5 |
7 |
|
|
| 1-Sep |
Philadelphia |
NY Jets |
-6.5 |
5, 6 |
|
Philadelphia |
| 1-Sep |
Cincinnati |
Indianapolis |
+0.0 |
5, 6 |
2, 9 |
|
| 1-Sep |
San Diego |
San Francisco |
-3.0 |
1, 5, 6, 8 |
|
San Diego |
To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing NFL preseason games, here are the situations we'll be looking for in the 2006 preseason:
NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
- Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 46-68 (40%)...and this drops to 30-53 (36%) when the team is laying a field goal or more [2006: 5-4]
- Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 23-11 (68%) [2006: 0-0]
- In week two, POOR prior season teams are an amazing 37-15 (71%) versus the line against GOOD or AVERAGE and especially strong as road warriors, where they are 22-5 versus good/average home teams. [2006: 2-4]
NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in
- In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 92-66 record (58%)...but even better if you use wager early as opposed to at closing. [2006: 12-6]
- Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (35-13 for 73%) [2006: 2-0]
- (Week 4) -- two or more win away underdogs are 20-2 against one win home sides, while two plus win home teams are 7-1 as home dogs. [2006: 0-0]
NFL Preseason research: team 2-year history
- Back Poor-Poor teams as UNDERDOGS [2006: 5-7]
- Go against Poor-Poor teams as FAVORITES [2006: 2-4]
- Back Good-Good teams as UNDERDOGS [2006: 1-2]
- Go against Average-Average teams as FAVORITES [2006: 1-1]
- Back Poor-Average teams as UNDERDOGS [2006: 1-2]
As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the picks we will provide are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games. Tread lightly!
Find out more:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
Also see:
NFL.com Preseason Standings
Pro-Football-Reference Prior Year G/A/P Records
ESPN Preseason Coverage
SportsLine NFL Preseason
FoxSports NFL
Football Outsiders Team Rankings
