NFL Preseason Picks: Week One
The strategies employed are based on our research series (see the article links above or below for detail).
Week one preseason picks as follows with lines posted as of 8/09 -- see Bodog for latest Preseason Lines info.
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As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the picks we will provide are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games.
Tread lightly!
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NFL Preseason picks for August 9th-13th
| Day |
Date |
Away Team |
Home Team |
Line |
Strategies
for Away |
Strategies
for Home |
Pick |
| Thursday |
9-Aug |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
-3.0 |
1, 3, 4 |
|
Cincinnati |
| Thursday |
9-Aug |
Indianapolis |
Dallas |
-4.5 |
1, 4 |
|
Indianapolis |
| Friday |
10-Aug |
Atlanta |
N.Y. Jets |
-3.5 |
4 |
|
|
| Friday |
10-Aug |
New England |
Tampa Bay |
-3.0 |
1, 4 |
|
New England |
| Friday |
10-Aug |
Buffalo |
New Orleans |
-6.0 |
4 |
|
|
| Friday |
10-Aug |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
-2.5 |
1, 3, 4 |
|
St. Louis |
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Green Bay |
Pittsburgh |
-6.5 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Jacksonville |
Miami |
-1.0 |
1, 3, 4 |
|
Jacksonville |
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Kansas City |
Cleveland |
-3.0 |
1, 3, 4 |
|
Kansas City |
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Carolina |
N.Y. Giants |
-1.0 |
4 |
|
|
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Chicago |
Houston |
+1.5 |
|
4 |
|
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Washington |
Tennessee |
-3.0 |
4 |
|
|
| Saturday |
11-Aug |
Arizona |
Oakland |
-2.0 |
1, 3, 4 |
|
Arizona |
| Sunday |
12-Aug |
Seattle |
San Diego |
-3.5 |
4 |
|
|
| Monday |
13-Aug |
Philadelphia |
Baltimore |
-3.0 |
4 |
|
|
| Monday |
13-Aug |
Denver |
San Francisco |
-2.5 |
1, 4 |
|
Denver |
To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing week one NFL preseason games, here are the situations we'll be looking for in the 2006 preseason:
NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
- Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 51-77 (40%)
- Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
- In week one, POOR prior season teams are an amazing 8-18 (31%) at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams.
NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in
- In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 104-72 record (59%)...and 82-59 (58%) in week one.
Also see:
NFL.com Preseason Standings
Pro-Football-Reference Prior Year G/A/P Records
ESPN Preseason Coverage
SportsLine NFL Preseason
FoxSports NFL
Football Outsiders Team Rankings
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