NFL Preseason Picks: Week Two
2007 Record
All Picks: 3-3-2
3+ Strategies edge: 2-2
2 Strategies edge: 1-1
1 Strategies edge: 5-2
Review the 2007 Week One Preseason picks.
The strategies employed are based on our research series (see the article links above or below for detail).
Week two preseason picks as follows with lines posted as of 8/14 -- see Bodog Preseason lines for latest info.
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As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the picks we will provide are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games.
Tread lightly!
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NFL Preseason picks for August 9th-13th
| Day |
Date |
Away Team |
Home Team |
Line |
Strategies
for Away |
Strategies
for Home |
Pick |
| Thursday |
16-Aug |
Miami |
Kansas City |
-3.0 |
3 |
|
|
| Friday |
17-Aug |
Atlanta |
Buffalo |
-3.0 |
8 |
|
|
| Friday |
17-Aug |
Carolina |
Philadelphia |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| Friday |
17-Aug |
Minnesota |
N.Y. Jets |
-4.5 |
3, 8 |
|
Minnesota |
| Friday |
17-Aug |
Tennessee |
New England |
-5.5 |
4, 8 |
|
Tennessee |
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Houston |
Arizona |
-3.0 |
4, 8 |
|
Houston |
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Detroit |
Cleveland |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
New Orleans |
Cincinnati |
-3.0 |
1, 4, 8 |
|
New Orleans |
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Tampa Bay |
Jacksonville |
-4.0 |
3 |
|
|
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Denver |
Dallas |
-5.5 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Pittsburgh |
Washington |
+2.0 |
|
3 |
|
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
San Diego |
St. Louis |
-1.0 |
1, 8 |
|
San Diego |
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Seattle |
Green Bay |
-1.0 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
18-Aug |
Oakland |
San Francisco |
-3.5 |
3 |
|
|
| Sunday |
19-Aug |
N.Y. Giants |
Baltimore |
-4.0 |
8 |
|
|
| Monday |
20-Aug |
Chicago |
Indianapolis |
-6.0 |
|
|
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To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing week one NFL preseason games, here are the situations we'll be looking for in the 2006 preseason:
NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
- Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 51-77 (40%)
- Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
- In week two, POOR prior season teams are an amazing 54-28 (66%) versus the line against GOOD or AVERAGE and especially strong as road warriors, where they are 23-7 versus good/average home teams.
NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in
- In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 104-72 record (59%)
- Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (39-15 for 73%)
- Home underdogs with 0 wins coming into a game are 38-19 (67%)
- Away favorites with 0 wins coming into a game are 14-29 (33%)
- (Week 2) -- away underdogs with zero wins are 36-22 (62%)
Also see:
NFL.com Preseason Standings
Pro-Football-Reference Prior Year G/A/P Records
ESPN Preseason Coverage
SportsLine NFL Preseason
Football Outsiders Team Rankings
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