NFL Preseason Picks: Week Four
2007 Record
All Picks: 9-5
3+ Strategies edge: 4-4
2 Strategies edge: 5-2
1 Strategies edge: 11-10
Review the 2007 Week One Preseason picks, Week Two Preseason picks, and 2007 Week Three picks
The strategies employed are based on our research series (see the article links above or below for detail).
Week two preseason picks as follows with lines posted as of 8/28 -- see Bodog Preseason lines for latest info.
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As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the picks we will provide are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games.
Tread lightly!
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NFL Preseason picks for August 30th-31st
| Day |
Date |
Away Team |
Home Team |
Line |
Strategies
for Away |
Strategies
for Home |
Pick |
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Buffalo |
Detroit |
-3.5 |
1 |
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Washington |
Jacksonville |
-3.5 |
7 |
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
N.Y. Giants |
New England |
-4.0 |
|
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
N.Y. Jets |
Philadelphia |
-2.5 |
4, 7, 9 |
|
N.Y. Jets |
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Pittsburgh |
Carolina |
-4.0 |
4, 7, 9 |
|
Pittsburgh |
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Cleveland |
Chicago |
-4.0 |
7 |
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Dallas |
Minnesota |
+2.0 |
4 |
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Miami |
New Orleans |
+1.5 |
|
2, 6 |
New Orleans |
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Kansas City |
St. Louis |
-2.5 |
|
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Houston |
Tampa Bay |
-3.0 |
7 |
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Green Bay |
Tennessee |
-7.0 |
7 |
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Arizona |
Denver |
-4.5 |
|
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
San Francisco |
San Diego |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| Thursday |
30-Aug |
Oakland |
Seattle |
-3.0 |
7 |
|
|
| Friday |
31-Aug |
Baltimore |
Atlanta |
+3.5 |
|
6 |
|
| Friday |
31-Aug |
Indianapolis |
Cincinnati |
-4.5 |
1 |
|
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To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing week one NFL preseason games, here are the situations we'll be looking for in the 2007 preseason:
NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
- Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 51-77 (40%)
- Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in
- In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 104-72 record (59%)
- Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (39-15 for 73%)
- Home underdogs with 0 wins coming into a game are 38-19 (67%)
- Home underdogs with 2+ wins coming into a game are 12-3 (80%)...and 7-1 in week four
- Away underdogs with 2+ wins coming into a game are 64-35 (65%)
- Away favorites with 0 wins coming into a game are 14-29 (33%)
- (Week 4) -- two or more win away underdogs are 21-3 against one win home sides
Also see:
NFL.com Preseason Standings
Pro-Football-Reference Prior Year G/A/P Records
ESPN Preseason Coverage
SportsLine NFL Preseason
Football Outsiders Team Rankings
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