Predicting Season Win Totals, part I

In the past when we've run this study we've used a data set going back to 1990, but in light of the fact that the NFL is not the same today as it was in the early 90's (salary cap connundrums anyone?), we've elected to tighten the sample to look only at seasons from 1996-2005. This still gives a healthy ten year data set but sides with the present day over the past when teams were more consistent from year to year.

Now during this period there have been no teams with either a 0-16 or 16-0 record, so consequently we will look at each prior season win total between 1 and 15 (ties are counted as a half, but rounded down for this research).

The data below includes an average change in wins (prior season to current season), and the percentage at which teams surpassed win milestones. We've also highlighted the highest win point at which teams in that category reached a milestone 50% of the time.

[Data includes 1996 to 2005 seasons]

Prior Season Wins	# of cases	Ave Net	4+ Wins	5+ Wins	6+ Wins	7+ Wins	8+ Wins	9+ Wins	10+ Wins	11+ Wins	12+ Wins
1	3	+6.0	100 %	100 %	66 %	66 %	33 %	33 %	0 %	0 %	0 %
2	4	+2.5	50 %	25 %	25 %	25 %	25 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %
3	12	+3.3	83 %	75 %	58 %	50 %	25 %	16 %	16 %	8 %	8 %
4	22	+3.0	100 %	90 %	77 %	45 %	31 %	22 %	9 %	9 %	9 %
5	26	+2.3	100 %	73 %	65 %	50 %	46 %	34 %	26 %	23 %	3 %
6	33	+2.0	87 %	87 %	72 %	63 %	63 %	57 %	39 %	15 %	6 %
7	36	+0.2	86 %	75 %	63 %	50 %	50 %	41 %	30 %	19 %	11 %
8	38	-0.2	92 %	86 %	81 %	73 %	57 %	39 %	18 %	18 %	13 %
9	37	-0.4	91 %	91 %	81 %	70 %	62 %	45 %	40 %	29 %	24 %
10	36	-1.8	100 %	88 %	86 %	69 %	61 %	47 %	30 %	16 %	8 %
11	20	-1.5	100 %	95 %	90 %	90 %	80 %	65 %	55 %	40 %	25 %
12	20	-2.3	100 %	95 %	90 %	90 %	75 %	65 %	60 %	35 %	35 %
13	14	-3.6	100 %	92 %	92 %	85 %	64 %	64 %	57 %	35 %	28 %
14	6	-5.8	100 %	100 %	83 %	66 %	33 %	33 %	33 %	16 %	16 %
15	2	-4.5	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	50 %	0 %

- Records only include regular season wins
- Green highlight is highest win number for 50%+ of teams with that prior year win total

ANALYSIS: Obviously the temptation is to take these numbers a little too literally and as indicative of how "any team" in a given category will do the following season (eg assuming that any 6-10 team has a 63% chance of getting eight wins or more). This would be a bad idea in our humble opinion, since the table above is looking at things blindly, without regard for the "season wins" line set on a team -- in other words while those 6-10 teams may as a group get to 8+ wins most of the time, it's highly likely that the ones which were forecast to do poorly (eg having a season over/under line of say 5.5 wins) don't meet the percentage, whereas teams forecast to do well (say 8.5 wins) may be even higher than the class norm.

Having said that, there are some obviously strong historical results to note -- the vast majority of NFL teams get at least five wins regardless of their prior season performance, while few get to 11+ even with a superior record in the previous year.

The general message to take away from the above is that teams coming off strong seasons tend to have a hard time matching expectations and teams that had a rough year often turn it around pretty quickly. Another way to put that in a more quantitative form is:

Teams coming off 1-6 win seasons on average win 2.6 more games
Teams coming off 10+ win seasons on average lose 2.4 more games

Ah, but let's take the next step anyway, with the caveat that this is just one aspect of a good season win analysis...

Review of NFL Teams by record class

14-2 record in 2005

Indianapolis (11.5 ov-120, un-110)

There's only been six 14-2 teams in the past ten years, and only one made it to even eleven wins the following season. Edge is gone, Peyton's playoff pressure continues to build...will they drop off? Certainly twelve wins is a tall order in the NFL.

13-3 records in 2005

Denver (10 ov-130, un+100), Seattle (10.5 ov-110, un-120)

Well 57% of prior year thirteen win teams have made it to ten wins as a follow-up, but only 35% have made it to eleven wins.

12-4 records in 2005

Jacksonville (9 ov-120, un-110)

Jacksonville got no respect during last season on the way to twelve victories (and an admittedly quick 28-3 humbling at the hands of New England in the playoffs) and the linemakers are saying it was a fluke by posting a nine line here. Jags fans can take solace in the fact that 65% of 12-4 teams bounced back to at least nine wins the next season.

11-5 records in 2005

Carolina (10 ov-115, un-115), Chicago (9.5 ov-130, un+100), Cincinnati (9 ov-110, un-120), N.Y. Giants (9 ov+100, un-130), Pittsburgh (No Line), Tampa Bay (8 ov-115, un-115)

The most common record in the NFL last season? The 11-5 mark shared by the six teams above. The defending champion Steelers don't have a line yet from Bodog, thanks we imagine to Big Ben's motorcycle sideshow. 11-5 teams have been pretty tough customers the next season, getting 9+ wins 65% of the time and 10+ 55% so at a glance there's a bit of a diss of Tampa Bay going on here (80% of eleven win teams make at least .500).

10-6 records in 2005

Kansas City (9.5 ov-105, un-125), New England (10.5 ov-105, un-125), Washington (9 ov-145, un+115)

Ten win teams only get to the same measure again on 30% of follow-up seasons, so there's been a high rate of decline among such sides as a group. Given this the Patriots line looks ambitious (only 16% of 10-6 teams have made it to 11+ the next year). More interesting though is the early action already on the Redskins where you have a -145/+115 schism as the over money has poured in. Can Brunell really be expected to continue the magic? This seems like heavy Joe Gibbs betting, but not all great coaches have had successful returns.

9-7 records in 2005

Dallas (9.5 ov-125, un-105), Miami (9 ov-150, un+120), Minnesota (8 ov-125, un-105), San Diego (8.5 ov-130, un+100)

Speaking of great coaches trying to return to former glory, Parcells' Dallas team is being projected on the line to improve another half game. There's also been a lot of over money coming in on Miami.

8-8 records in 2005

Atlanta (8.5 ov-110, un-120)

Parity in the NFL? Ha! We only have one 8-8 team and no 7-9 squads from 2005. So either you're good or bad! Only 39% of .500 teams though have made it over the hump the next year to a winning record, and so once again the pressure is on Ron Mex~ er, Micheal Vick.

6-10 records in 2005

Baltimore (8 ov-125, un-105), Cleveland (6.5 ov-170, un+140), Philadelphia (8.5 ov-135, un+105), St. Louis (7 ov-110, un-120)

6-10 teams have often made good turnarounds with 57% reaching 9-7 or better. So 'over' might be the best initial thought here and we have some unusual cases in this mix with Philadelphia (five years prior to last season's disaster: 11-11-12-12-13 wins), Baltimore (12-10-7-10-9) and St. Louis (10-14-7-12-8) all being fairly recent Super Bowl squads with multiple double digit win years. Of course there's a tendency for people to overplay the "previously good team" angle and not realize that decline and fall is part of the sports world cycle. Get a look also of the one sided money on Cleveland: the over is now up to -170!

5-11 records in 2005

Arizona (8 ov-110, un-120), Buffalo (6.5 ov+100, un-130), Detroit (7 ov+100, un-130)

Our own Tim has been telling us for a while now how the turnaround is right around the corner in Arizona with Dennis Green in charge...so far though that's been disappointment city! Will the third year be the charm?

4-12 records in 2005

Green Bay (6.5 ov-110, un-120), N.Y. Jets (6 ov-130, un+100), Oakland (6.5 ov-105, un-125), San Francisco (5 ov-115, un-115), Tennessee (5 ov-130, un+100)

Four win teams have hit 5-11 90% of the time which makes San Francisco an interesting prospect off the bat (two more first round draft choices, second year for the QB, Coach and "new hope"). Tennessee likewise has a low line but is at least starting to take a little over action.

3-13 records in 2005

New Orleans (6.5 ov-140, un+110)

If ever there was a write-off season it was the Saints' 2005 campaign where they ended up camping out in San Antonio for the most part. Given the previous five years before the Katrina-influenced disaster saw 10-7-9-8-8 wins plus they add in the exciting Reggie Bush and Drew Brees (!) and still have the Deuce...you might feel seven wins is a pretty modest goal.

2-14 records in 2005

Houston (5.5 ov-140, un+110)

David Carr goes back into the fray (cannon to left of him, cannon to right of him...) for another try. The reality is that of the four 2-14 teams in the last decade, only one has got to six wins the following season. Under anyone?

Again, all of this was just an exercise and should not be construed as a full scale analysis of how to play the season win numbers, for that you'll need to delve deeper...and we will! More articles coming soon on this subject.

Also see:
Season Win Bets Research, part II
NFL Power Rankings
NFL Futures Betting Odds