NFL Preseason -- Week Four (9/01 to 9/02)

Preseason Picks Record:
All Picks: 18-9
3+ Strategies in effect: 9-3
2 Strategies in effect: 6-3
1 Strategies in effect: 3-3
3+ Strategies edge: 7-2
2 Strategies edge: 7-4
1 Strategies edge: 4-3

(see Preseason Week One Picks, Preseason Week Two Picks, and Preseason Week Three Picks, for game by game detail)

Comments: as might be expected, games where a side had several strategies pointing their way ("in effect") were better performers than teams with only one or two strategies that applied. Likewise, having a substantial edge in strategies (eg 3 for team A, 1 for team B would be a '2' strategy edge for team A) was better.

To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing NFL preseason games, here are the situations we're looking for this week, along with current season-to-date record:

NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
1. A battle of average prior year teams has favored the home squad [1-3]
2. Average home teams have struggled against poor away teams...although not so much the last couple of years [3-3]
3. Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 40-58 (41%)...and this drops to 24-43 (36%) when the team is laying a field goal or more [7-2]
4. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 22-10 (69%) [std: 5-1]

NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in

5. In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 86-55 record (61%)...but was 6-10 last year. The home underdogs in winless vs winless games are 17-9 and at least a positive 2-1 in preseason 2004 [10-7 and 4-1 with home dogs]
6. Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (33-12 for 73%) [0-1 in '05]
7. (Week 4) -- two or more win away underdogs are 18-2 against one win home sides, while two plus win home teams are 37-24, including 7-1 as home dogs.

NFL Preseason research: team 2-year history

8. Back Poor-Poor teams as UNDERDOGS [7-3]
9. Go against Poor-Poor teams as FAVORITES [6-1]
10. Back Good-Good teams as UNDERDOGS [3-4]
11. Go against Average-Average teams as FAVORITES [2-1]

NFL Preseason picks for September 1st-2nd

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line	Strategies for Away	Strategies for Home	Pick
1-Sep	NY Jets	Philadelphia	-3.0
1-Sep	Atlanta	Miami	-3.0	3, 6, 7		Atlanta
1-Sep	Houston	Tampa Bay	-3.5	3
1-Sep	Cleveland	Chicago	-3.0	8
1-Sep	NY Giants	New England	-6.0	8
1-Sep	Pittsburgh	Carolina	-3.0	3
1-Sep	Jacksonville	Dallas	-4.0	3
1-Sep	Washington	Baltimore	-4.5	2, 8		Washington
1-Sep	Green Bay	Tennessee	-7.0	3, 10		Green Bay
1-Sep	New Orleans	Oakland	-5.5	3, 9		New Orleans
1-Sep	San Francisco	San Diego	-6.0	6, 7		San Francisco
2-Sep	Detroit	Buffalo	-3.5	2, 8		Detroit
2-Sep	Indianapolis	Cincinnati	-3.5	3, 10, 11		Indianapolis
2-Sep	Kansas City	St. Louis	-3.0		1
2-Sep	Minnesota	Seattle	-3.0		1
2-Sep	Denver	Arizona	-4.5	3, 9, 10		Denver

* Some strategies pointing to the favorite, but laying more than a field goal goes against our principles, particularly with NFL Preseason Picks!

As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the above picks are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games. Tread lightly!

Also see:
NFL.com Preseason Standings
Pro-Football-Reference Prior Year G/A/P Records
ESPN Preseason Coverage
SportsLine NFL Preseason
FoxSports NFL
Football Outsiders Team Rankings
Sagarin NFL Ratings