Tim!

I apologize, if it makes you feel bad Seeing me so tense, no self-confidence But you see, the winner takes it all The winner takes it all... And so here I am, with a bitter pill to swallow. Ah, such dreams I had for this place. What heights TwoMinuteWarning could have risen too with Tim's wise hand steering the way. We could have done away with this subscription nonsense, this highbrow pretense, this "experts sermonizing on the mountain" attitude. In its place we could have built a fellowship, if not of a ring, then of like-minded football friends, gathering together to mull over the latest National Football League twists and turns. Breaking new ground, yes, with football statistics of an unconventional nature, but more importantly, having fun doing it. Ah well, to quote another of my favorite songs, We shall never find that lovely land of Might-Have-Been. I can never be your king nor you can be my queen. Days may pass and years may pass and seas may lie between. We shall never find that lovely land of Might-Have-Been. Then of course, just credit must be given to the winner. The mighty Roland did indeed put his neck on the line, did offer up the golden opportunity for old Timmy to steal this whole ball of wax away and run for the madman hills. The rules were fair, the chance was there, but despite my impressive powers of pre-cognition, I couldn't knock down an adversary who went 6-0 down the stretch. Tim's "downsizing papers" are no doubt in the mail. Back to the routine: first up, the weekly check in with the O/D Ranks Linemaking machine. Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Buffalo -8.5 New England 1 Buffalo 9.5 Seattle -1 San Francisco -6 San Francisco -5 Philadelphia +7 Washington 0 Washington -7 Jacksonville -3 Atlanta 8 Jacksonville 11 Cleveland -7.5 Cincinnati -7 Cleveland .5 St. Louis +10.5 Detroit 8 Detroit -2.5 Indianapolis +7 Houston 8 Indianapolis 1 Chicago -10 Kansas City -3 Chicago 7 New York Jets -4 Miami -7 Miami -3 Dallas +2 New Orleans 0 New Orleans -2 Tampa Bay -6.5 Tennessee 2 Tampa Bay 8.5 Minnesota +7.5 Arizona 8 Minnesota .5 Carolina +4.5 New York Giants 1 New York Giants -3.5 Denver -6.5 Green Bay 1 Denver 7.5 Oakland -3.5 San Diego -7 San Diego -3.5 Pittsburgh -7 Baltimore -10 Baltimore -3 Goodbye old friend, the O/D Ranks machine. And goodbye to all my other friends with best holiday wishes (and for all you enemies too, probably more numerous come to think of it). From the head-to-head challenge column, this is Tim signing off. Favor: San Francisco -1 Tim's rebuttal to himself: ah, don't cry, I'll be back next week with the usual Week That Was schtick...

Roland

The last week of the season presents some unique problems for a handicapper, particularly when trying to decipher the likely outcomes in advance of any of the games being played. The need for a win can be dependent on other games resolved before kickoff, which consequently can change the importance from "must have" to "of no significance." For instance, should Cincinnati by some chance lose to Cleveland, then the Ravens would have the division title locked up and no possible chance to improve their playoff status when they faced the Steelers on Sunday evening. Some research on the subject of last week games shows a couple of matchup pairings that have shown strong historical patterns -- when a home team with 7 to 9 wins coming in faces an away team with 10+ wins already, the home side has been a strong 17-4 against the line. This week that would put you on Green Bay and New Orleans. Another trend has been home teams with 10+ wins against lesser away teams (0 to 9 wins), where the home side has been a dominant 27-9 versus the spread. In the 2003 season final week that would have you rooting for Kansas City, Tennessee, and New England. The game that has the most appeal, albeit limited value even at that, is Dallas at New Orleans. The Saints along with having the benefit of the aforementioned historical advantage, come in as the choice from a number of our indicators, including the red zone data which predicts a seven point triumph (and qualifies as a "dog to win outright" pick, 21-12 on the year), the Trends column (31-22 on the season), and the Last five weeks data set runs of the UPM simulator (58% season to date). Now the drawback is that the Saints have in years past been notorious for packing it in when they are out of the running, and such is the case this week, on the heels of the heartbreaking defeat where they flubbed the extra point after a miracle last play touchdown. In truth, even had they won last week, their chances would appear to be slimmer than slim. I am trusting then that they do show up for the game, and battle for the 8-8 closing record. The Cowboys may not have a whole lot of incentive to win should Philadelphia knock off the Redskins as expected, but it's worth keeping an eye on the possible implications before getting down on the game. Favor: New Orleans +2