NFL Challenge Match: Week One Best Bets
A new weekly feature on the site this season will be our NFL Challange Match between two of the original founders of TwoMinuteWarning. Each week they will go head-to-head, in general giving out their best play on the schedule. A look at our two competitors:
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Zurbriggen: Influential on the play-by-play ratings and their evolution, the Z-man will show you how to use these numbers effectively.
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Roland: The force behind drive chart projections, turnover difference and other key methods brings a wide ranging look to the games.
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The season kicked off last night, and with games underway we are ready to venture forth with the first real round of head-to-head action.
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Zurbriggen
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In the opening games you have choices. Go with last season data and make adjustments, go with historical trends, or base analysis on current evaluation of the teams in relation to roster changes and aging. I try to engage in some of each of these. The game that strikes me as most out of line is San Diego at Kansas City.
Both teams were 8-8 in 2002, although Kansas City was +68 net points on the year while San Diego was -34. The Chiefs offense was explosive behind Priest Holmes and the public loves a high scoring team. People are talking about the Dick Vermeil "third year effect" in that he got to the Super Bowl in the third season with two previous teams. Oh, be still my beating heart...
The Chiefs play in the toughest division in football this season and haven't won more than nine games in a season over the past five years. Priest Holmes is trying to come back from a serious injury and while adding DE Vonnie Holliday may be a great pickup, the defense has to improve. Teams have had a full off-season to think about how to stop the KC offense, just like they have had a full off-season to figure out how to score on the Tampa defense.
The Chargers will be a new team this year having lost team soul leaders Seau and Harrison, as well as several other key guys. They do add David Boston which could be huge for the passing game if he's healthy.
The key elements are these: AFC West games will be mean, nasty, and generally close. San Diego benefits from a couple of patterns, including a 'contrarian consensus.' Finally it's a lot of points we are talking about here.
Favor: San Diego +5.5
Roland rebuttal: I don't disagree with the selection.
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Roland
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Strange as it may sound, I actually like week one games. For some reason I have fared well in this most unique of weeks, and find a lot of games on the schedule in 2003 that I will be more than a little interested in.
My choice is like Z's a divisional game, and also like my opponent in this weekly hoedown, I'm going with the away team and the points. Let's turn our attention to that little shindig at Lambeau Field: Minnesota at Green Bay.
Yeah, the Packers are a better team on paper if you go by last season's numbers, and the Vikings are a long way removed from their glory years under Dennis Green. On the up side though they finished with three straight wins and the offense was piling up the points and yards like in the old days.
Now I am perhaps most excited heading into the 2003 NFL season by our new DC/TO prediction tool, and from week five on watch out! It's pretty ambiguous how good the numbers will be in the early weeks, but a look at this game using last year's numbers has the Vikings winning outright 26-20 on the DC/TO scoreline. That's a ridiculous overlay.
Another thing to watch in week one is the turnover fumble history, as that's been a 63% week one predictor if you know how to use it, and there too there's a heavy push towards the Vikings.
Finally there is Randy Moss. Ah, Randy. The self-admitted play-taker-off-er has apparently committed himself more fully to a year of highlight film exploits.
Favor: Minnesota +5
Zurbriggen rebuttal: I am less enthusiastic towards the Vikings playing in Green Bay.
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There we have it for week one forecasting, look for a special guest appearance next week in this space!
Also see:
NFL Challenge: Playoff In/Out Teams
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