One of the nice things about our coverage of the NFL here at TwoMinuteWarning is that we have features presenting from different sides of the story. So, while in large part many of us may rely heavily on our sophisticated statistical projections and our full scale simulation engines, there's also room for the trends player, the turnover difference advocate, and especially the injury report insider.
We've done extensive research looking at how to incorporate injuries into the more number oriented approaches, and have indeed found lots of value in bringing injuries into the equation. Thanks to our partners at KFFL, we get amazingly good injury reports which combine both the official NFL injury releases, with the behind the scenes details.
For an example of some of what you can glean from this data, let's look at the news for the upcoming Seattle at Washington matchup:
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS November 3, 2003 15:50:17 PT
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT - WED. 11/5
DOUBTFUL - DT Norman Hand (biceps)
QUESTIONABLE - WR Koren Robinson (ankle)
PROBABLE - LB Chad Brown (foot); S Ken Hamlin (foot)
PREVIOUS UPDATES
OFFENSE
-- WR Koren Robinson (ankle) has an ankle bruise and his status will be determined later in the week. Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren said he was not sure how long Robinson might miss, if he misses any time at all. Robinson suffered the injury Sunday, Nov. 2, against the Pittsburgh Steelers and did not return.
DEFENSE
-- DT Norman Hand (arm) has a torn tendon in his right biceps. He is out indefinitely and will seek a second opinion later in the week. The options are surgery -- presumably season-ending -- or taking a few weeks off before returning. Green Bay Packers DT Gilbert Brown had a similar injury and did not get surgery. Hand previously suffered the same injury on his left arm and did not seek surgery.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS November 5, 2003 14:06:34 PT
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT - WED. 11/5
DOUBTFUL - RB Ladell Betts (arm); C Larry Moore (foot)
QUESTIONABLE - CB Rashad Bauman (ankle); RB Trung Canidate (ankle); DT Martin Chase (calf); S Todd Franz (ankle); DT Jermaine Haley (hand/shoulder); RB Sultan McCullough (hand); RB Chad Morton (ankle)
PROBABLE - LB LaVar Arrington (hand/knee); CB Champ Bailey (wrist/shoulder); QB Patrick Ramsey (finger/forearm); DE Bruce Smith (hand); CB Fred Smoot (chest)
CURRENT UPDATES
OFFENSE
-- RB Trung Canidate (ankle) said he plans to practice on Wednesday, Nov. 5, and play in Sunday's, Nov. 9, game against the Seattle Seahawks.
-- RB Chad Morton (ankle) sat out practice Wednesday, Nov 5, and is listed as questionable for Week 10.
-- RB Ladell Betts (forearm) remains doubtful for Week 10 with a fractured forearm.
-- RB Sultan McCullough (hand) practiced Wednesday, Nov. 5, and remains questionable for Week 10.
-- C Larry Moore (foot) sat out practice Wednesday, Nov. 5, and remains questionable for Week 10. Lennie Friedman will likely start at center.
DEFENSE
-- CB Fred Smoot (chest) sat out practice Wednesday, Nov. 5, but remains probable for Week 10.
-- CB Rashad Bauman (ankle) sat out practice Wednesday, Nov. 5, and remains questionable for Week 10.
NOTES AND MISCELLANEOUS UPDATES
-- 11/5 -- The team has placed OG Dave Fiore (knee) on injured reserve with a knee injury. Fiore had planned to return in Week 10, but the injury had been sluggish to heal and his progress was coming along slower than expected.
PREVIOUS UPDATES
OFFENSE
-- QB Patrick Ramsey (forearm/finger) said he expects to play in Sunday's, Nov. 9, game against the Seattle Seahawks. "I'm sore [but] not anything that's going to keep me from playing," Ramsey said.
-- OT Chris Samuels (rib) suffered a rib injury during Sunday's, Nov. 2, game against the Dallas Cowboys. His status for this week's game against the Seattle Seahawks has yet to be determined.
DEFENSE
-- DL Jermaine Haley (shoulder/thumb) is listed as doubtful for Week 10, according to head coach Steve Spurrier.
-- LB LaVar Arrington (shoulder) suffered a bruised shoulder during Week 9, but the injury isn't believed to be serious. Arrington is expected to start in Week 10.
-- FS Todd Franz (ankle) suffered a sprained left ankle during Week 9 and his status for Week 10 is uncertain.
That's a lot of information to digest, but well worth examinging. However, getting to the bottom line for a prediction standpoint, one of the best measures of how injuries will change a team's performance is by looking at the injuries ongoing on a weekly basis. Ignoring for the moment the position of the player, and whether he's a starter or reserve, by applying the simple formula of 1 point for every player listed as OUT, 3/4 of a point for every DOUBTFUL player, 1/2 point for every QUESTIONABLE player, and 1/4 point for every PROBABLE player, you get a quick read on overall damage. String the weeks together and you may find something eye-opening:
Seattle at Washington
| Team |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
| Seattle |
4.25 |
4.25 |
3 |
1.75 |
| Washington |
3.5 |
Bye |
4.5 |
6.25 |
This week Score: Seattle 1.75 , Washington 6.25 [Diff: 4.5 ]
Pick: SEAHAWKS
Change Score: Seattle-1.25 , Washington 1.75 [ 3 ]
Pick: SEAHAWKS
*** DUAL PICK: SEAHAWKS
Not only do the Redskins have a large number of injuries to deal with at the current time, they have been steadily worsening in overall team health from week to week, whereas the Seahawks have been getting healthier, regaining 2 1/2 player "units" in the past two weeks. That may not be enough alone to warrant liking the Seahawks chances, but in conjunction with perceived superiority in the stats, it is.
Favor: Seattle -3
