Tim!

Sad times, may follow your tracks, Bad times, may bar you from Sak's So baby, this rule I propose, Always have an Ace in the hole OOh it does feel good I have to confess, having the old nemesis to kick around again. Where would Batman be without his Joker? Or better yet, Catwoman, meow! Where would Superman be without Lex Luthor? Where would Spiderman be without Dr. Doom? Or putting it in more sporting terms, where would the Lakers be without the Celtics? (and if you're an NBA fan, check out the new 82games.com site.) Where would the Yankees be without the Red Sox? (still in first place I guess.) Where would Manchester United be without Liverpool? Where would Akebono be without, without, well, the other fat dude? And most importantly, where would the Oakland / Los Angeles / Oakland / Reno Raiders be without the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans / Houston Texans? So it is and I accept it gracefully, that my name will forever be linked with the bag of bolts, that clanker of a cassandra, that pompeii of a predictor, the O/D Ranks Linemaking machine. Here's what the machine over mind picks shape up like for week XI: Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Houston -7 Buffalo -3 Houston 4 Washington -6 Carolina -7 Carolina -1 St. Louis +6.5 Chicago 0 Chicago -6.5 Kansas City +6.5 Cincinnati 4 Cincinnati -2.5 Arizona -6.5 Cleveland -3 Arizona 3.5 Baltimore -6 Miami 0 Baltimore 6 Atlanta -8.5 New Orleans -11 New Orleans -2.5 New York Giants -3.5 Philadelphia -7 Philadelphia -3.5 Jacksonville -10 Tennessee 2 Jacksonville 12 San Diego -8 Denver -11 Denver -3 New York Jets -6.5 Indianapolis -3 New York Jets 3.5 Minnesota +4.5 Oakland 5 Minnesota .5 Detroit -10 Seattle -10 0 Green Bay -3.5 Tampa Bay -14 Tampa Bay -10.5 Dallas -4 New England 1 Dallas 5 Pittsburgh -4 San Francisco -6 San Francisco -2 Tim's in no mood for loose talk today, no mood for pretending this isn't serious business, no mood at all come to think of it. Favor: New York Jets +6 Tim's rebuttal to himself: Start spreading the news...

Roland

One of the general truisms of investing in practically anything, is that following the herd is a lousy way to go. The people making profits in whatever their chosen field are usually the ones breaking new ground and going against the tide. One of the more popular features we publish each week in the subscriber area is our trio of contrarian indicators -- turnover difference, cumulative spread margin (also known as "contrarian bridgejumping"), and the newly coined "Contrarian Consensus". While the turnover difference and CSM are successful predictors in their own right (and have been for over 20 years now!), when they both point to the same team in a given game, then you have the contrarian consensus in effect. This had a remarkable 59% record against the line over the past decade, and is keeping in line with the long term results this season, bringing an 18-12 (60%) mark into the games on the schedule this week. There are five "CC" recommendations to consider -- Chicago, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Oakland, Pittsburgh -- all of which you probably note right away are underdogs. That's the inherent premise to some extent of contrarianism, going for the out of favor, unpopular, "bad on paper" bet over the obvious, public choice. In football this approach makes sense given that games, and indeed seasons, can turn on just a handful of key plays, which to paraphrase some other individuals, changes everything. The Bears have been suspect admittedly overall, but have three straight wins at home, and a defense that is not without some redeeming qualities. The new Soldier Field may yet prove to be an unwelcome stop for NFL road teams. Favor: Chicago +6.5