Everybody loves a home dog. Or you would think so, given the prodigious record of accomplishments the home underdogs have put together over the years in the NFL. Even this year, where they began with a resounding thud and a 10-24 start, they have climbed the mountain back to .500 at 31-31 with a 21-7 run.
Still, another week comes along and there's no shortage of home dogs from the linesmakers. I've mentioned before that in the later weeks, the home team getting points that is out of contention but playing an away team that is in contention has been an outstanding play, with a 39-12 record in the week 15/16 timeframe. This week the sides falling into consideration for that scenario are Cleveland and Oakland (Buffalo opened as a home dog, but has since become the favorite).
Neither of those sides catches my fancy entirely though, but another lowly team does stand out as the best of the week -- the Houston Texans. They've been awful of late, but have reduced to playing with their third string QB, which can't help any. This week David Carr is likely to be back taking the snaps, and indeed on the injury front the news is good as Houston has gone from 4.5 player "units lost" two weeks ago, to 2.0 last week, to a mere 0.5 for this week's event.
Additional supporting evidence that the Texans should be ready to go comes from the red zone stats, which forecast them as a "dog to win outright" pick (19-10 on the season), the UPM simulations on the last five weeks data set (which has them as a 69% confidence to cover a +8 line), and the DC/TO which sees it as a mild four point win for the Titans (and the DCTO has been 17-8 with home dog plays in 2003).
Now, if it turns out the Texans have to go back to Ragone as their QB you might want to run screaming into the hills, but so long as a bonafide NFL Quarterback trots out onto the field to take the snaps, I'm backing the home dog.
Favor: Houston +7
