NFL Challenge Match: Week Two Best Bets
A new weekly feature on the site this season will be our NFL Challange Match between two of the original founders of TwoMinuteWarning. Each week they will go head-to-head, in general giving out their best play on the schedule. A look at our two competitors:
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Zurbriggen: Influential on the play-by-play ratings and their evolution, the Z-man will show you how to use these numbers effectively.
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Roland: The force behind drive chart projections, turnover difference and other key methods brings a wide ranging look to the games.
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WEEK TWO PICKS
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Zurbriggen
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Week two is still early for the stats. But my records show that teams with a play-by-play projected score overlay have been 14-6 (70%) in week two games. That's good as there are seven PBP dogs this week: Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Houston, Detroit, Tennessee, and Washington. The overlays are all extreme with just the one game played.
My research on PBP has come up with a number of tighteners that improve the basic results. Most of this is geared to having several games played, but I'll use it here anyway.
Two stats to focus closely on are the projected average yards per passing play and the projected big gain rushing percentage. With passing yards it goes counter to logical thinking: you want to find teams that have an edge in the predicted score compared to the line but have a modest edge in expected passing yards per play. What this is about is you want the predicted score to arise from a team having better overall qualities, not just lots of passing yards. Teams coming from behind can often get big passing yard numbers because the opposition goes into prevent mode.
In week one the only PBP dog pick that has less than a 1/2 yard per play edge is Detroit. In fact the Lions are projected to get 6.1 yds per pass to Green Bay's 6.8 yards per pass. Even so the predicted score is Detroit 28, Green Bay 15.
In rushing big gain percentage, you want to look for a 5%+ edge. Detroit is projected to have 16% of rushing carries go for 10+ yards. Green Bay is projected to have 9% of rushing carries go for big gains.
PBP Dogs with big rushing gain advantages are Detroit, Washington, Houston, San Francisco.
For the double tightener pick it's easy:
Favor: Detroit +6.5
Roland rebuttal: I can't speak to the play-by-play data details, but I do know Green Bay also has some injury issues to the point where they've brought back Antonio Freeman!
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Roland
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As tempting as it may be to go with Minnesota again to pound this time on the poor Bears, I know well enough that big favorites in the NFL are not the easiest teams to back with long term success. Unfortunately the drive chart and the new DC/TO prediction tools are not going to be much good to us until we get to week five when teams have played three or four games each.
One oddity of the early portion of the season has been that the original game simulation tool we built, the "Ultimate Prediction Machine", has done reasonably well. I would not have expected this, but as it turns out the UPM has been a spectacular 22-8 in week two games the last two seasons. Now, clearly two years does not make for any kind of basis for believing things will continue at that rate, but I would be hesitant to take a stand against the UPM plays at this point.
What makes it seem a bit ridiculous is that whereas in the later part of the season we are very happy when a 65%+ confidence pick pops out (and ecstatic on the 70%+ ones), in week two you see some outrageous confidence values, topped this week by San Francisco being predicted to cover a +3 line against St. Louis 94% of the time! I should note that ties against the line are ignored in the expressed confidence value, so in the 5,000 game simulation run, if 10% of the time the simulated game landed on the number exactly what we are really seeing is that the 49ers covered 94% of the simulations with a won or lost outcome.
Anyway, do not take the 94% too seriously, it's a function of limited data at this stage. It is though a positive for the 49ers.
The other good news if you are a Niners fan is that the injury report is not altogether promising for the Rams. Bulger may be a better QB for them these days then Warner, but while the week one toll added another 1.5 "player units lost" to their tally (see the Evaluating Injuries article for more on that), the 49ers gained a full player unit back in team health, and have lower injury damage as a whole.
Favor: San Francisco +3
Zurbriggen rebuttal: 49ers were a PBP dog pick too.
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There we have it for week two forecasting, our special guest was delayed, but look for an appearance next week in this space!
Last Week: Roland took the lead with a round one victory as Minnesota upset Green Bay. Zurbriggen's pick San Diego fell to Kansas City.
Also see:
NFL Challenge: Week One
NFL Challenge: Playoff In/Out Teams
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