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*** Next update: Friday morning, October 1st -- Week Five Best Bets!

NFL Challenge Match: Week Four Best Bets

A new weekly feature on the site this season will be our NFL Challange Match between two of the original founders of TwoMinuteWarning. Each week they will go head-to-head, in general giving out their best play on the schedule. A look at our two competitors:

	Zurbriggen: Influential on the play-by-play ratings and their evolution, the Z-man will show you how to use these numbers effectively.
	Roland: The force behind drive chart projections, turnover difference and other key methods brings a wide ranging look to the games.

WEEK FOUR PICKS

Zurbriggen

It's no fun losing. Lone bright spot is starting next week the power of the play-by-play ratings will be stronger. This week still iffy.

This season underdogs have been taking it on the chin. But the basic PBP results are great long-term: 58% on ALL play-by-play dog picks. 69% on dog picks at +5 or higher spreads. Those are weeks five plus numbers.

Three underdogs get the call from the PBP predicted score in week four: Dallas, San Diego, Atlanta.

Parcell's Cowboys off a bye and should give Jets fits. Passing edge and rushing edge and big gain rushing edge. All significant factors. Jets may be motivated against old coach.

San Diego can win outright but are getting a touchdown. Looks like everyone learned from the Super Bowl and knows how to beat the Raiders now. Brees must have a good game and that's not certain. One less WR as Boston is suspended.

Final dog is Atlanta. Getting too many points from Carolina in this one. Panthers off a bye. Yes Atlanta got trampled on by Tampa Bay. That one everyone saw coming. Line moved from -3.5 to -6.5. Biggest move I can remember on an NFL game. Middlers of course got nothing. Falcons have better offensive PBP EFR rating, better PSR ratings on both rushing and passing. Better yards per pass attempt number too. Defense is Carolina's forte but defense can't cover a big spread if the offense doesn't score much.

Favor: Atlanta +6

Roland rebuttal: not my favorite team at the moment.

Roland

While I hold high expectations for our new DC/TO prediction tool, I was not expecting it to be particularly strong in the early going. The results though have been good so far even with the limited data from teams having only played a few times.
One aspect of the numbers that does seem to provide a solid foundation for thinking there may be a true advantage is that with the DC/TO you are balancing the turnover "breaks" a team has been receiving with their pure statistical efficiencies. What this means is that when you examine the original drive chart projections and the new "drive charts with turnover emphasis" projections together, you can tell where the team's perceived superiority is coming from: turnovers or pure production.
There are several scenarios for a game -- the DCTO forecasts a bigger overlay than the original drive stats, the DCTO favors the same team but with a lesser overlay, or the two indicators disagree over which side is the value. The first scenario is the one that intrigues me as it's a situation where a team has not only outplayed their upcoming opponent on the stats front, they've achieved it in spite of less luck on the turnover front.
A case in point of this effect occurs this week as New England plays at Washington. The drive chart prediction sees the Redskins edging the Patriots 20-15, but the DC/TO has it as a 28-7 rout for the 'Skins, in that the New England numbers thus far have been boosted in large part by 9 takeaways and a +4 net turnover mark. Take away the rash of turnovers, and would New England really be 2-1 coming in? We'll find out Sunday.
Favor: Washington -3
Zurbriggen rebuttal: PBP numbers have the Redskins.

Special Guest Appearance:

Tim!

Howdy partners, from beautiful Burbank, California!
That's right, Tim is hanging out in Los Angeleees. Why? Why, you ask? Doesn't the City of Angels already have enough beautiful people? How can Tim deprive other parts of the country of his glamorous, dashing, debonair, and handsome good looks? (pardon any redundancies)
Other than getting a bit of the Californication thing, Tim is on the job. I'm working. That's right! I am positioning myself for that glorious and ash-tonishing moment to an onlooker (but all too mundane for myself) when I am "discovered" and promptly thrust into the limelight as moviedom's next action adventure hero. What with Arnold becoming the new state governor there will be a void needing to be filled. Just a matter of time...
So yes, I am mingling with the stars, about to be discovered. Do not be alarmed. I won't forget the little people who have helped make me the man I am today.
There is one dilemma with this plan, namely that there isn't a professional football team within miles of here (unless you count San Diego, which frankly is a stretch at this point).
Ah, but I digress.
Last we spoke, Tim was living on the edge, having wormed his way back into the TwoMinuteWarning writers' stable, under the requirement that I maintain a 60% plus winning record with my best bets. Last week was no prob with my Team of Destiny Vikings putting the hurt on the Lions.
So, who will it be this time? Who will qualify as Tim's lucky hundred-stars team for week four?
Not Minnesota, I regret to say. They may experience a temporary setback with Culpepper resting up. Instead it will be their arch foe du jour, those meddling kids, the cheeseheads! My friends, don't be afraid of Bears.
Favor: Green Bay -4

Tim's rebuttal to himself: roar! roar!

Last Week: Roland took a commanding 3-0 lead as Denver won, while Zurbriggen's pick Cincinnati couldn't get it done. Tim earned a repeat performance as Minnesota bested Detroit.

Also see:
NFL Challenge: Week Three
NFL Challenge: Week Two
NFL Challenge: Week One
NFL Challenge: Playoff In/Out Teams