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    *** Next update: Friday morning, October 8th -- Week Six Best Bets!

    NFL Challenge Match: Week Five Best Bets

    A new weekly feature on the site this season will be our NFL Challange Match between two of the original founders of TwoMinuteWarning. Each week they will go head-to-head, in general giving out their best play on the schedule. A look at our two competitors:

    Zurbriggen: Influential on the play-by-play ratings and their evolution, the Z-man will show you how to use these numbers effectively.
    Roland: The force behind drive chart projections, turnover difference and other key methods brings a wide ranging look to the games.

    WEEK FIVE PICKS
     Zurbriggen
    Finally we are here. Week five and the season begins for real.

    Uderdogs still hurting on the season, but the basic PBP results are great long-term: 58% on ALL play-by-play dog picks. 69% on dog picks at +5 or higher spreads. Those are weeks five plus numbers. That's what I care about.

    Three underdogs get the call from the PBP predicted score this week and the best is Seattle over Green Bay.

    Holmgren versus his old team is old news. Here's the real news: Seattle is the better team. They have better big gain potential running the ball [key research area #1] and are the overlay pick with an actual small disadvantage in passing yards per play [key research area #2]. I expect Seattle's passing game to be much better than projected. If true, this will open up the running game even more.

    Favor: Seattle +2.5

    Roland rebuttal: not sure about getting less than a field goal here.

     Roland
    As I mentioned last week, I'm looking more and more towards our new DC/TO prediction tool for inspiration this season. The DC/TO balances out the turnover "breaks" a team has been receiving with their pure statistical efficiencies.

    Now I also brought up the "three scenarios" for a game -- 1) the DCTO forecasts a bigger overlay than the original drive stats, 2)the DCTO favors the same team but with a lesser overlay, or 3) the two indicators disagree over which side is the value.

    The first scenario would appear to be the most interesting, and comforting, since what you're seeing is that a team is not only better on the stats side, it's achieved this without having the best of luck on the turnover front (at least in contrast to their opponent).

    This week a game with this concept at work is a big-time matchup between Denver and Kansas City. Both teams are riding high at 4-0 on the season, and the game could be a key one in determining the eventual AFC West division winner. The original drive chart stats prediction formula conjures up a thrilling 20-19 Denver triumph. The DC/TO view of the game is that Denver shuts down the Chiefs and wins 20-6. Now, while I wouldn't necessarily put much stock in the final score total (the DC/TO was not developed with the intention of accurately forecasting totals), I do look fondly on the fact that the DC/TO increased the Denver advantage in a case where they were already predicted to win outright as an underdog.

    Certainly most NFL fans enjoy watching high scoring teams loaded with star skill-position players, and the Chiefs may have the most captivating and entertaining story-lines in that regard, but as the Bucs demonstrated in last year's Super Bowl, offense isn't always the key to victory.

    Favor: Denver +3.5

    Zurbriggen rebuttal: PBP numbers like the Broncos.

    Special Guest Appearance:
     Tim!
    Rolling, rolling, rolling, keep that wagon rolling,
    rolling, rolling, rolling, raw-hide!

    So there I was, walking down the street in this funny, funny world, specifically, Los Angeles, or more specifically, Santa Monica, and this car (fancy schmancy don't you know, some kind of juiced up convertible Jaguar/Mercedes construct, something so fancy you don't even know that you've seen one before or ever will see one again, probably an Aston Martin DB7 GT with the 6.o litre V12, standard touchtronic transmission, special red brake caliper, and 9-spoke alloy wheels, but that's just a guess), this car slows down beside me, and not wanting to act anything but the completely cavalier seen-everything-before-and-I'm-made-of-money-myself-don't-you-know dude that I am, and with an imperceptible glance I deduce that the driver is a super hot number blonde and the passenger is a super hot number brunette (even by LA standards), and I am thinking to myself, yes, at last, my moment has come.

    It becomes evident that my mind is not playing tricks on me and indeed the car is slowing down with the sole purpose of initiating contact with yours truly.

    At the appropriate moment when my coolness would not be tempered by seeming even remotely eager to speak with the occupants for any other reason than to be offering what modest yet genius brilliant assistance that only I could bring to the matters at hand in their lives, which are oh-so-significant to them, and yet such trifles to a worldly man of my status, knowing of course full well that adulation and adoration for my being are the only possible things that could spring forth from their full, wet lips, I turn my head in their general direction.

    "Are you from around here?" asks the brunette demurely, leaning forward over the car towards me, coquettishly revealing more and more of her assets.

    (why of course little lady, I can understand that you might mistake me for some Adonis from another planet, but remarkably I am no different in origins than my fellow man, even if I have surpassed him in all admirable qualities many, many years ago)

    I nod blithely in that yes, I know my way round here, and no, I am not like any of the other local denizens, way.

    She smiles coyly, in that oh, I knew the answer of course already fashion, and ~~

    Oh, darn. Sadly, we are out of time. More on Tim's LA Adventures next week. Picking Panthenon update: Tim won again last week, thereby guaranteeing that I will meet the requirements to maintain a 60% plus winning record with my best bets for at least a couple more shows. With the pressure off there is the danger of a letdown.

    Favor: Pittsburgh -6.5

    Tim's rebuttal to himself: faced with grave danger on all sides, I thought quickly through the options, reached into my Lumberjack utility belt and...

    Last Week: Roland extended his lead to 4-0 as Zurbriggen continued to struggle. Tim earned another appearance as Green Bay bested Chicago.

    Also see:
    NFL Challenge: Week Four
    NFL Challenge: Week Three
    NFL Challenge: Week Two
    NFL Challenge: Week One
    NFL Challenge: Playoff In/Out Teams


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