Predicting Season Win Totals, part I

In the past when we've run this study we've used a data set going back to 1990, but in light of the fact that the NFL is not the same today as it was in the early 90's (salary cap connundrums anyone?), we've elected to tighten the sample to look only at seasons from 1996-2006. This still gives a healthy eleven year data set but sides with the present day over the past when teams were more consistent from year to year.

Now during this period there have been no teams with either a 0-16 or 16-0 record, so consequently we will look at each prior season win total between 1 and 15 (ties are counted as a half, but rounded down for this research).

The data below includes an average change in wins (prior season to current season), and the percentage at which teams surpassed win milestones. We've also highlighted the highest win point at which teams in that category reached a milestone 50% of the time.

[Data includes 1996 to 2006 seasons]

Prior Season Wins	# of cases	Ave Net	4+ Wins	5+ Wins	6+ Wins	7+ Wins	8+ Wins	9+ Wins	10+ Wins	11+ Wins	12+ Wins
1	3	+6.0	100 %	100 %	66 %	66 %	33 %	33 %	0 %	0 %	0 %
2	6	+2.7	66 %	33 %	33 %	16 %	16 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %
3	14	+3.6	85 %	78 %	64 %	57 %	28 %	21 %	21 %	7 %	7 %
4	29	+3.2	96 %	89 %	79 %	55 %	41 %	27 %	13 %	6 %	6 %
5	31	+2.1	96 %	74 %	64 %	51 %	45 %	32 %	22 %	19 %	3 %
6	40	+1.9	87 %	85 %	72 %	65 %	65 %	52 %	37 %	15 %	7 %
7	39	+0.1	87 %	74 %	61 %	48 %	46 %	38 %	28 %	17 %	10 %
8	47	+0.0	91 %	87 %	82 %	76 %	57 %	42 %	25 %	19 %	12 %
9	45	-0.4	93 %	91 %	82 %	68 %	60 %	46 %	40 %	28 %	24 %
10	42	-1.9	100 %	88 %	83 %	69 %	59 %	45 %	28 %	16 %	9 %
11	26	-1.8	100 %	92 %	88 %	88 %	80 %	53 %	46 %	34 %	23 %
12	23	-1.9	100 %	95 %	91 %	91 %	78 %	65 %	60 %	39 %	39 %
13	18	-4.0	100 %	94 %	88 %	83 %	61 %	61 %	44 %	27 %	22 %
14	8	-5.0	100 %	100 %	87 %	75 %	50 %	50 %	50 %	37 %	25 %
15	2	-4.5	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	50 %	0 %

- Records only include regular season wins
- Green highlight is highest win number for 50%+ of teams with that prior year win total

ANALYSIS: Obviously the temptation is to take these numbers a little too literally and as indicative of how "any team" in a given category will do the following season (eg assuming that any 6-10 team has a 65% chance of getting eight wins or more). This would be a bad idea in our humble opinion, since the table above is looking at things blindly, without regard for the "season wins" line set on a team -- in other words while those 6-10 teams may as a group get to 8+ wins most of the time, it's highly likely that the ones which were forecast to do poorly (eg having a season over/under line of say 5.5 wins) don't meet the percentage, whereas teams forecast to do well (say 8.5 wins) may be even higher than the class norm.

Having said that, there are some obviously strong historical results to note -- the vast majority of NFL teams get at least five wins regardless of their prior season performance, while few get to 11+ even with a superior record in the previous year.

The general message to take away from the above is that teams coming off strong seasons tend to have a hard time matching expectations and teams that had a rough year often turn it around pretty quickly. Another way to put that in a more quantitative form is:

Teams coming off 1-6 win seasons on average win 2.6 more games
Teams coming off 7-9 win seasons on average lose 0.1 more games
Teams coming off 10+ win seasons on average lose 2.4 more games

Ah, but let's take the next step anyway, with the caveat that this is just one aspect of a good season win analysis...

Review of NFL Teams by record class

16-0 record in 2007

New England (12.5 wins, over-115)

No team has ever been 16-0 before so not history for this one!

13-3 records in 2007

Dallas (10.5 wins, over-130), Green Bay (8 wins, over-160), Indianapolis (11 wins, over+110)

Well 50% of prior year thirteen win teams have made it to ten wins as a follow-up, but only 31% have made it to eleven wins, so the Cowboys and Colts are a tad dicey from this one factor. On the other hand 61% of 13-3 clubs made it to 9+ wins so the Packers look likely to best it but not at fair value on the -160 odds currently.

11-5 records in 2007

Jacksonville (10 wins, over-125), San Diego (10.5 wins, over-165)

Only 34% of eleven win prior year teams have made it to 11 wins, so both these teams looks dubious at a first glance.

10-6 records in 2007

Cleveland (8 wins, over-125), N.Y. Giants (8.5 wins, over-160), Pittsburgh (9 wins, over-110), Seattle (8.5 wins, over-170), Tennessee (8 wins, over-110)

Ten win teams have come back with nine plus wins at a 45% clip, meaning none of these rate as a good bet on this look alone, and the Steelers who need to get to ten to go over look particularly doubtful.

9-7 records in 2007

Tampa Bay (8 wins, over-150), Washington (7.5 wins, over-135)

Nine win teams have come back with a .500 or better season over 60% of the time, which might make you a little curious about the 'Skins, but not so much at -135 odds.

8-8 records in 2007

Arizona (7.5 wins, over-145), Houston (7.5 wins, over-120), Minnesota (8.5 wins, over-155), Philadelphia (8.5 wins, over-180)

Well you've no doubt noticed that Bodoglife.com draws a lot of "over" action on the higher win teams pushing the odds up super high (Philly over -180?) which suggests the counterplay is very strong when only 42% of .500 prior year teams get to nine wins the next time out.

7-9 records in 2007

Buffalo (7.5 wins, over-150), Carolina (7.5 wins, over-160), Chicago (8 wins, over+115), Cincinnati (7.5 wins, over+105), Denver (7.5 wins, over-160), Detroit (6.5 wins, over-125), New Orleans (8.5 wins, over-150)

Seven win teams are almost 50/50 to get to seven wins again, and 46% have got to 8+. Once again though you are looking at some hefty over odds on a lot of these which makes the under promising value. 5-11 records in 2007

Baltimore (6 wins, over-130), San Francisco (6.5 wins, over+105)

Overall 51% of prior year five win teams have made it to .500 or better, meaning the lines here are about where they should be for this singular consideration.

4-12 records in 2007

Atlanta (4.5 wins, over-135), Kansas City (6 wins, over-125), N.Y. Jets (7.5 wins, over-120), Oakland (6 wins, over-110)

NFL teams coming off 4-12 years have got to 7 wins next out 55% of the time which means excluding the Jets the first reaction is a lean to over, and 89% of such teams have hit 5+ wins which makes you wonder about the Atlanta line!

3-13 records in 2007

St. Louis (6.5 wins, over-130)

It may be a surprise but 57% of 3-13 teams bounced back with at least 7 wins.

1-15 records in 2007

Miami (5.5 wins, over+100)

The Dolphins obviously want to forget last year and with a new coach and new quarterback, the forgetting should at least be relatively easy.

Again, all of this was just an exercise and should not be construed as a full scale analysis of how to play the season win numbers, for that you'll need to delve deeper...and we will! For starters read NFL Team Season Wins over/under tips, part II
for more on this subject.

Also see:
Team by Team 10-Year Trends