OVERLAY NFL SELECTIONSWho Am I? I am a 64 year-old seasoned professional handicapper. I hold a Ph.D. in social science with a specialty in data analysis and research methodology. I am also a full professor at a major university. I began wagering on sports in 1974 when a graduate student of mine informed me he was working his way through graduate school by booking bets and I became curious. In the 1970's and early 80's, I was immersed in the wagering 'culture' in one of the three largest cities in the U.S. and had intimate contact with both the Jewish and Italian 'shops' in the city. It took me more than a decade to become a consistent winner.Methodology. I use the name OVERLAY for obvious reasons. I limit my wagers to situations and patterns that provide value opportunities. I only wager on what I believe I understand. That's why my wagering is limited mainly to the NFL and NBA. I understand how these sports work as businesses as well as contests and the rising and declining tides of human emotion that makes some games much more important than others over the course of a season. Most of my handicapping research over the past 25 years has centered on patterns of motivation. There are many ways to win (and lose) at this game and the ones I understand the best are motivation and momentum. Humans are not machines and understanding the ebb and flow of performance cycles is one way to create an advantage. For me handicapping is a science and an art and a highly creative endeavor. Statistics are important but always must be contextualized and interpreted. Data don’t speak; they must be interpreted. I look “inside” numbers for hidden meanings and to gain an advantage. I am what horse handicapping guru Marc Cramer once called 'a kinky handicapper.' Most of the statistics I use a 'normal' person wouldn't even begin to consider. What have you done for me lately? I have been a host handicapper for sharpsportsbetting.com since 2004. In 2008-2009, my NFL non-graded record was 58-45-5 (56.3%) against widely available lines. My graded record was 68-49-5. I grade my plays from 1-3% of bankroll. My graded record last year was 68-49 and my rare 3% plays were 3-0 including Arizona’s Week 6 upset of Dallas as a 5 point underdog, 30-24 and Houston’s Week 15 upset of Tennessee as a 3 point underdog, 13-12. My plays include select game totals as well as Preseason and Regular Season Over/Under Totals. My career record as a host at sharpbetting.com for preseason games is 41-29 (59%) against widely available lines and 30-15 (67%) for regular season totals. Of course, these are small samples and past performances do not guarantee future results. Buyer Beware. This is a difficult game. The best handicappers can only achieve 55-56% over the long run and only a few achieve that mark. My philosophy is to grind out a slow, but steady profit and also to take advantage of a handful of very good opportunities over the course of a season.
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