A few years ago, a twentysomething sports nut named Roland Beech
decided he wasn't satisfied with traditional NFL statistics.
Beech and his buddies, all NFL fans with analytical minds and high
levels of computer expertise, craved new ways to dissect pro football
games.
Today, gamblers everywhere should be grateful.
The efforts of Beech and his crew resulted in a website called Two
Minute Warning, which features the most innovative -- and, from a gambling
perspective, powerful -- NFL stats you're likely to find from any source.
On the Internet at twominutewarning.com, the site appeals to everyone
from fantasy league owners to hardcore bettors.
As the site enters its fifth season, Beech plans to beef up the
gambling content even more.
"We're trying to make it more upscale this year, make a concerted
effort to appeal to people interested in the gambling-oriented stuff,"
Beech said from his home base in Northern California. "We already have
many more articles up on the gambling side than we've had before."
In years past the Two Minute Warning staff tracked every NFL game, play
by play, and used the data to develop its own "drive-chart stats," which
turned out to be quite reliable in predicting upcoming games against the
point spread.
Last season, Two Minute Warning's NFL picks produced a winning
percentage that many professional bettors would envy. The site's
proprietary "Ultimate Prediction Machine" compiled an overall record of
111-83 (57 percent) in 2000, with its top-rated picks going 37-20 (65
percent).
And Two Minute Warning posts its picks against a neutral, or consensus,
betting line. Shopping around for the best line is likely to add at least
a couple of percentage points to a win-loss record over the course of a
season.
"In previous seasons, we had all the statistics, but we didn't put
enough emphasis on how to use the numbers (in betting)," Beech said. "Now
we're focusing a bit more on how to use them, how to spot those big
overlays. We're also working on some teaser and totals stuff, and a
money-line version of the 'Ultimate Machine.' "
Among the staff's current projects is rating individual NFL linemen by
tracking tackles and missed tackles, and blocks and missed blocks.
It's not just blind number crunching, though. One of Two Minute
Warning's strong points is its ability to conduct an objective, empirical
search for answers to such useful questions as:
How valuable are last year's statistics in predicting Week 1 of the
NFL?
What is the best time frame to use when analyzing a team's stats for
handicapping purposes -- two weeks? Five weeks? Eight weeks?
In fact, Two Minute Warning's approach is reminiscent of the
revolutionary work Bill James did with baseball stats in the 1980s -- that
is, if James & Co. were oriented toward gambling (which they weren't).
"While we do a lot of fantasy and general interest data for the NFL,"
Beech said, "there's no doubt that a lot of the basis for this endeavor
was to get an edge in gambling."
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