Preseason Picks research -- WIN comparisons

We ran through the results of all preseason games from 1997 to 2004 (eg an eight year span) where there was a home team (in several games each season you have a "neutral site" and we will regard these contests as different circumstances). All we used initially in our query is how many preseason wins a team has coming into the game. Obviously then the first preseason game a team plays it has zero wins, if it's victorious then next week it comes in with one win, etc.

Since the sample size is already small, we elected to cap a team's wins at "2+" for the purposes of this analysis:

The preliminary conclusion to the question that started all this -- who is the better bet when a team with zero preseason wins plays a team which has already notched a W -- shows mixed results...the winless side is 46-36 at home (56%), but just 28-31 against the spread on the road against teams with a win, so overall it's a modest 74-67 (curiously the exact 52.4% breakeven point!).

So perhaps the "winless" team angle has some merits when it's the home side trying to get a little momentum going in front of the local fans. However, what does jump out from the above is one very interesting point:

• Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (33-12 for 73%, and 5-1 in 2003)

Now in previous years a case could be made for another 'angle' which was namely:

• In a game of winless sides, lean to the away team (78-63 for 55%), but this approach had a lousy 9-12 record in the 2003 preseason and an incredibly horrible 5-11 mark in 2004! Maybe there's been some fundamental shift in preseason attitudes or at least the lines posted by the linemakers. Such is the problem with "angles handicapping".

As far as general dog/favorite splits go, here's some splits:

Home Underdogs
33-16 (67%) with 0 wins coming in
13-17 (43%) with 1 win coming in
9-3 (75%) with 2+ wins coming in

So it's a tremendous 42-19 (69%) with 0 or 2+ wins, but precisely one win home dog teams are losers against the spread...that old 'satisfied' feeling kicking in perhaps.

Home Favorites
78-98 (42%) with 0 wins coming in
58-73 (44%) with 1 win coming in
42-40 (51%) with 2+ wins coming in

Away Underdogs
95-70 (58%) with 0 wins coming in
67-76 (47%) with 1 win coming in
49-32 (60%) with 2+ wins coming in

Away Favorites
11-24 (31%) with 0 wins coming in
13-16 (45%) with 1 win coming in
12-13 (48%) with 2+ wins coming in

So, some more data for the 'old arsenal heading into the preseason, but the wise guy in the audience is already carping that looking strictly at wins without regard to the stage of the preseason is foolish...hold on pal -- we're getting to that!

Rather than fill up this article with countless tables though, we'll give some of the more interesting numbers in summary:

Week 0 -- in games with a home team, underdogs have done well (11-5).

Week 1 -- underdogs have a formidable 67-43 overall mark (61%).

Week 2 -- home underdogs facing a zero win away side are 6-1 against the line

Week 3 -- away favorites with 1 or 2 wins already are 8-0 against home teams with 1 win

Week 4 -- two or more win away underdogs are 18-2 against one win home sides, while two plus win home teams are 37-24, including 7-1 as home dogs.

So in conclusion for this rendition of TwoMinuteWarning.com's preseason research we recommend the following:

Play away teams with two or more wins against home teams with one win In a match-up of winless teams, lean to the underdog, particularly a home underdog In the final week of preseason, teams with two plus wins are strong.

In case you missed part one of our preseason research, you may want to read about NFL Preseason Gap Comparisons. More research coming as well, followed by a picks page listing all the plays in 2005 for the "deemed worthy" angles!