NFL Preseason Picks: Week Three
2010 Record
Official Picks: 8-9
3+ Strategies edge: 1-2
2 Strategies edge: 7-7
1 Strategies edge: 4-4
Review the:
- Week One Preseason picks
- Week Two Preseason picks
The strategies employed are based on our research series (see the article links above or below for detail).
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As always, we would stress that preseason games are inherently chancy, and the picks we will provide are based on simple historical patterns, not the sophisticated statistical analysis we bring to bear on regular season and playoff games.
Tread lightly!
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NFL Preseason picks for August 26th-30th
| Day |
Date |
Away Team |
Home Team |
Line |
Strategies
for Away |
Strategies
for Home |
2+ Strategy
Edge |
| Thursday |
26-Aug |
St. Louis |
New England |
-7.0 |
|
|
|
| Thursday |
26-Aug |
Indianapolis |
Green Bay |
-3.5 |
|
|
|
| Friday |
27-Aug |
Atlanta |
Miami |
-1.0 |
|
|
|
| Friday |
27-Aug |
Washington |
NY Jets |
-4.5 |
3 |
|
|
| Friday |
27-Aug |
Philadelphia |
Kansas City |
+1.0 |
|
1 |
|
| Friday |
27-Aug |
San Diego |
New Orleans |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Cleveland |
Detroit |
-2.5 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Cincinnati |
Buffalo |
+3.0 |
5, 7 |
1 |
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Jacksonville |
Tampa Bay |
+2.5 |
|
1, 4 |
Tampa Bay |
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
(-4.0) |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Dallas |
Houston |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Seattle |
Minnesota |
-5.0 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Tennessee |
Carolina |
-3.0 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
Arizona |
Chicago |
-3.5 |
|
|
|
| Saturday |
28-Aug |
San Francisco |
Oakland |
-1.0 |
|
|
|
| Sunday |
29-Aug |
Pittsburgh |
Denver |
+2.0 |
|
1, 4 |
Denver |
To recap some of our applicable strategy tips for playing week one NFL preseason games, here are the situations we'll be looking for in the 2010 preseason:
NFL Preseason Research: prior year records
- Home underdogs are 79-51 (61%)
- Home teams off less than 7 win years as favorites against prior year Good teams are just 11-25 (30%)
- Home teams off 7 to 9 win years against prior year Poor teams are 28-42 (40%)
- Home underdogs versus an Average/Poor prior year team are 38-21 (66%)
NFL Preseason research: Won-Lost records coming in
- Back an away team with two or more wins against a home team with exactly one win (43-19 for 70%)
- In a game of winless sides, lean to the underdog (40-22 after week one).
- In week three, away favorites with 1 or 2 wins already are 11-5 (69%) against home teams with 1 win
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