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NFL Player Prop Bets

Since we already make weekly Player Projections, it makes sense to take a look at some of the NFL player prop bets being offered.

While many sportsbooks are not yet entering the fray in this betting area, the always safe and reliable Bodog.com, among others, is posting some innovative prop bets.


Player versus Player - Week 15

A leading book allows for direct player versus player action, but uses the "Yahoo esque" fantasy scoring of 1 pt per 50 yds passing, 1 pt per 20 yds rushing/receiving, all TD's worth 6 points, fumbles/interceptions are -2

Pos Player
Team
Pass
Yds
Pass
TD
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec.
Yds
Rec.
TD
Points Line Est.
Value
PICK
QB Carson Palmer
CIN
207 1.7 2 0 0 0 14.4 -130 0.323
QB David Garrard
JAC
250 2 24 0.3 0 0 20.0 +120 0.697 Garrard +120
QB Kurt Warner
ARI
341 1.8 3 0 0 0 17.8 -110 0.462
QB Matt Hasselbeck
SEA
251 2 4 0 0 0 17.2 +100 0.492
QB Eli Manning
NYG
296 2.1 6 0.1 0 0 19.4 -105 0.528
QB Jake Delhomme
CAR
233 1.7 3 0.1 0 0 15.6 -105 0.424
QB Trent Green
KC
218 1 2 0 0 0 10.5 -116 0.406
QB Gus Frerotte
MIA
193 1.3 2 0 0 0 11.8 +106 0.561
RB Larry Johnson
KC
0 0 100 1 20 0.1 12.6 -110 0.442
RB Shaun Alexander
SEA
0 0 111 1.1 11 0.1 13.3 +100 0.514
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
SD
0 0 85 0.9 24 0.1 11.5 -120 0.398
RB Edgerrin James
IND
0 0 105 0.9 26 0.1 12.6 +110 0.575
RB Tiki Barber
NYG
0 0 107 0.5 34 0.1 10.7 -120 0.394
RB Thomas Jones
CHI
0 0 114 0.9 16 0 11.9 +110 0.580
RB Ronnie Brown
MIA
0 0 57 0.4 14 0.1 6.6 -150 0.321
RB Cadillac Williams
TB
0 0 91 0.3 14 0 7.1 +140 0.726 Williams +140
WR Steve Smith
CAR
0 0 0 0 107 0.9 10.8 -140 0.443
WR Chris Chambers
MIA
0 0 2 0 70 0.5 6.6 +130 0.495
WR Marvin Harrison
IND
0 0 0 0 95 0.9 10.2 -110 0.579
WR Chad Johnson
CIN
0 0 1 0 67 0.4 5.8 +100 0.364

Given the variance in player performance, particularly in a touchdown heavy scoring system like this, even the "projected to be outperformed" can have profitable expectations at the right odds.

Last week: 2-1 (+1.6 units)
Season: 22-20 (+9.3 units)

Archive:
- Week 14 Player Prop Bets
- Week 13 Player Prop Bets
- Week 12 Player Prop Bets
- Week 11 Player Prop Bets
- Week 10 Player Prop Bets
- Week 9 Player Prop Bets
- Week 8 Player Prop Bets
- Week 7 Player Prop Bets
- Week 6 Player Prop Bets
- Week 5 Player Prop Bets
- Week 4 Player Prop Bets


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