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NFL Player Prop Bets
Since we already make weekly Player Projections, it makes sense to take a look at some of the NFL player prop bets being offered. While many sportsbooks are not yet entering the fray in this betting area, the always safe and reliable Bodog.com is posting some innovative prop bets.
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1) Player Group versus Player Group bets
This week we will start with two unique offerings available this week at Bodog.com:
Wager is on which Fantasy Team will make more Points. Official scoring will be according to Bodogfantasy.com rules:
- Rushing & Receiving: 10 points per Touchdown; 1 point per 10 yards
- Passing: 5 points per Touchdown pass; 1 point per 25 yards
- Kicking: 3 pts per Field Goal < 40 yards; 4 pts per Field Goal 40-49 yards; 5 pts per Field Goal >50 yard; 1 point per Extra Point.
- Team defense: 3 points per Sack, Interception, Fumble Recovery; 10 points per Touchdown; 2 points per Safety.
Here is how it looks using our Week 4 Player Projections
Matchup #1
| Pos |
Player |
Team |
Pass Yds |
Pass TD |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec. Yds |
Rec. TD |
Points |
| QB |
Carson Palmer |
CIN |
267 |
2.3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22.4 |
| RB |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
0 |
0 |
101 |
0.8 |
10 |
0 |
15.9 |
| RB |
Edgerrin James |
IND |
0 |
0 |
98 |
0.7 |
25 |
0.1 |
17.1 |
| WR |
Rod Smith |
DEN |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
73 |
0.3 |
9.1 |
| WR |
Jimmy Smith |
JAC |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
0.4 |
9.8 |
| TE |
L.J. Smith |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
0.5 |
8.3 |
| WR |
Torry Holt |
STL |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
120 |
0.9 |
17.4 |
| K |
Rian Lindell |
BUF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
|
Buccaneers |
TB |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
| "Purple Monsters" (-130) |
267 |
2.3 |
201 |
1.5 |
355 |
2.2 |
100.0 |
| QB |
Drew Bledsoe |
DAL |
327 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23.4 |
| RB |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
0 |
0 |
119 |
1.1 |
23 |
0.1 |
21.4 |
| RB |
Cadillac Williams |
TB |
0 |
0 |
113 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
17.7 |
| WR |
Deion Branch |
NE |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
0.5 |
8.9 |
| TE |
Jeremy Shockey |
NYG |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
0.5 |
8.6 |
| WR |
Randy Moss |
OAK |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
0.9 |
13.3 |
| WR |
Brandon Lloyd |
SF |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
86 |
0.7 |
12.8 |
| K |
Neil Rackers |
ARI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
|
Redskins |
WAS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
| "Crazy Lions" (-110) |
327 |
2 |
235 |
2.1 |
307 |
2.7 |
106.1 |
Analysis:
We don't currently make projections for Kickers and Team Defenses, the inclusion of which given the scoring system adds a lot of volatility (read "makes it more unpredictable"). Nevertheless we see the 'underdog' as the more likely winner in this matchup, although at -110 it's nothing more than a break-even expectation. If you're eager for a little 'crazy action' then consider the CRAZY LIONS. However the better bets appear to be the individual player v player matchups (see below).
Matchup #2
| Pos |
Player |
Team |
Pass Yds |
Pass TD |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec. Yds |
Rec. TD |
Points |
| QB |
Donovan McNabb |
PHI |
315 |
2.4 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25.1 |
| RB |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
0 |
0 |
98 |
0.8 |
6 |
0 |
15.2 |
| RB |
Corey Dillon |
NE |
0 |
0 |
64 |
0.6 |
9 |
0 |
10.9 |
| WR |
Chad Johnson |
CIN |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
108 |
1.1 |
17.7 |
| WR |
Steve Smith |
CAR |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
0.8 |
14.1 |
| WR |
Santana Moss |
WAS |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
63 |
0.2 |
7.6 |
| TE |
Alge Crumpler |
ATL |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
0.6 |
9.2 |
| K |
Josh Scobee |
JAX |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
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Bengals Defense |
CIN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
| "Killer Whales" (-125) |
315 |
2.4 |
171 |
1.4 |
335 |
2.7 |
99.8 |
| QB |
Kerry Collins |
OAK |
216 |
1.9 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18.3 |
| RB |
Rudi Johnson |
CIN |
0 |
0 |
103 |
0.8 |
4 |
0 |
15.5 |
| RB |
Stephen Davis |
CAR |
0 |
0 |
66 |
0.9 |
5 |
0 |
12.5 |
| WR |
Terrell Owens |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
109 |
1 |
16.9 |
| WR |
Darrell Jackson |
SEA |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
89 |
0.6 |
12.5 |
| WR |
Keenan McCardell |
SD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
0.7 |
12.4 |
| TE |
Chris Baker |
NYJ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
0.1 |
3.9 |
| K |
Jeff Wilkins |
STL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
|
Colts Defense |
CIN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
? |
| "Tiger Sharks" (-115) |
216 |
1.9 |
171 |
1.7 |
322 |
2.4 |
92.0 |
Analysis:
A very close matchup by the projections, save for the QB numbers where we see McNabb outplaying Collins by a good amount. Give the nod to the Bengals defense perhaps, but with the posted lines it appears they have the right team favored, and so not much to recommend.
2) Player versus Player
Other options around the sports betting scene allow for direct player versus player action, but often use the "Yahoo esque" fantasy scoring of 1 pt per 50 yds passing, 1 pt per 20 yds rushing/receiving, all TD's worth 6 points, fumbles/interceptions are -2
| Pos |
Player |
Team |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec.
Yds |
Rec.
TD |
Points |
Line |
PICK |
| QB |
Kerry Collins |
OAK |
216 |
1.9 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15.8 |
+115 |
|
| QB |
Donovan McNabb |
PHI |
315 |
2.4 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21.0 |
-125 |
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| QB |
Carson Palmer |
CIN |
267 |
2.3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19.2 |
+106 |
Palmer +106 |
| QB |
Peyton Manning |
IND |
218 |
1.6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14.1 |
-116 |
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| QB |
Eli Manning |
NYG |
203 |
1.4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12.6 |
-120 |
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| QB |
Drew Brees |
SD |
261 |
1.8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16.2 |
+110 |
Brees +110 |
| QB |
Eli Manning |
NYG |
203 |
1.4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12.6 |
+112 |
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| QB |
Jake Delhomme |
CAR |
222 |
1.6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14.2 |
-122 |
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| QB |
Daunte Culpepper |
MIN |
242 |
1.4 |
15 |
0.1 |
0 |
0 |
14.6 |
+124 |
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| QB |
Marc Bulger |
STL |
329 |
2.1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19.4 |
-134 |
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| RB |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
0 |
0 |
98 |
0.8 |
6 |
0 |
10.0 |
+119 |
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| RB |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
0 |
0 |
119 |
1.1 |
23 |
0.1 |
14.3 |
-129 |
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| RB |
Domanick Davis |
HOU |
0 |
0 |
69 |
0.4 |
31 |
0.1 |
8.0 |
+133 |
Davis +133 |
| RB |
Edgerrin James |
IND |
0 |
0 |
98 |
0.7 |
25 |
0.1 |
11.0 |
-143 |
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| RB |
Julius Jones |
DAL |
0 |
0 |
108 |
1.1 |
25 |
0.1 |
13.9 |
+110 |
Jones +110 |
| RB |
Cadillac Williams |
TB |
0 |
0 |
113 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
11.9 |
-120 |
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| RB |
Corey Dillon |
NE |
0 |
0 |
64 |
0.6 |
9 |
0 |
7.3 |
+119 |
|
| RB |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
70 |
0.3 |
65 |
0.4 |
11.0 |
-129 |
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| WR |
Randy Moss |
OAK |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
0.9 |
9.4 |
-115 |
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| WR |
Terrell Owens |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
109 |
1 |
11.5 |
+105 |
Owens +105 |
| WR |
Steve Smith |
CAR |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
0.8 |
9.5 |
+103 |
|
| WR |
Chad Johnson |
CIN |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
108 |
1.1 |
12.2 |
-113 |
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| WR |
Plaxico Burress |
NYG |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
0.6 |
6.6 |
+170 |
Burress +170 |
| WR |
Torry Holt |
STL |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
120 |
0.9 |
11.4 |
-180 |
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| TE |
Jeremy Shockey |
NYG |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
0.5 |
5.8 |
+130 |
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| TE |
Antonio Gates |
SD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
89 |
0.8 |
9.3 |
-140 |
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Given the variance in player performance, particularly in a touchdown heavy scoring system like this, even the "projected to be outperformed" can have profitable expectations at the right odds. Hence picks like Burress +170.
