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NFL Player Prop Bets
Since we already make weekly Player Projections, it makes sense to take a look at some of the NFL player prop bets being offered.
While many sportsbooks are not yet entering the fray in this betting area, the always safe and reliable Bodog.com, among others, is posting some innovative prop bets.
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Player versus Player
A leading book allows for direct player versus player action, but uses the "Yahoo esque" fantasy scoring of 1 pt per 50 yds passing, 1 pt per 20 yds rushing/receiving, all TD's worth 6 points, fumbles/interceptions are -2
| Pos |
Player |
Team |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec.
Yds |
Rec.
TD |
Points |
Line |
Est.
Value |
PICK |
| QB |
Michael Vick |
ATL |
168 |
1.2 |
49 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
14.2 |
-106 |
0.422 |
|
| QB |
Aaron Brooks |
NO |
281 |
1.8 |
11 |
0.1 |
0 |
0 |
17.6 |
-104 |
0.532 |
|
| QB |
Marc Bulger |
STL |
265 |
1.9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16.9 |
-132 |
0.385 |
|
| QB |
Brett Favre |
GNB |
239 |
1.9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16.3 |
+122 |
0.600 |
Favre +122 |
| QB |
Jake Plummer |
DEN |
195 |
1.1 |
7 |
0.1 |
0 |
0 |
11.5 |
-123 |
0.413 |
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| QB |
Brian Griese |
TB |
189 |
1.2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11.1 |
+113 |
0.556 |
Griese +113 |
| QB |
Tom Brady |
NE |
243 |
1.3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12.7 |
-126 |
0.376 |
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| QB |
Josh McCown |
ARI |
232 |
1.5 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14.1 |
+116 |
0.610 |
McCown +116 |
| QB |
Drew Brees |
SD |
240 |
1.8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15.8 |
-134 |
0.390 |
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| QB |
Carson Palmer |
CIN |
231 |
1.6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14.4 |
+124 |
0.592 |
Palmer +124 |
| RB |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
0 |
0 |
101 |
0.9 |
21 |
0.1 |
12.1 |
+106 |
0.488 |
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| RB |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
0 |
0 |
123 |
1.1 |
17 |
0.1 |
14.2 |
-116 |
0.465 |
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| RB |
Domanick Davis |
HOU |
0 |
0 |
85 |
0.7 |
38 |
0.2 |
11.6 |
-138 |
0.423 |
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| RB |
Julius Jones |
DAL |
0 |
0 |
90 |
0.5 |
15 |
0 |
8.3 |
+128 |
0.533 |
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| RB |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
56 |
0.2 |
47 |
0.6 |
10.0 |
-145 |
0.417 |
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| RB |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
0 |
0 |
68 |
0.4 |
14 |
0 |
6.5 |
+135 |
0.533 |
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| RB |
Edgerrin James |
IND |
0 |
0 |
96 |
0.8 |
26 |
0.1 |
11.5 |
-162 |
0.357 |
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| RB |
Deuce McAllister |
NO |
0 |
0 |
70 |
0.5 |
26 |
0.1 |
8.4 |
+152 |
0.642 |
McAllister +152 |
| WR |
Terrell Owens |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
90 |
0.9 |
9.9 |
-133 |
0.380 |
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| WR |
Steve Smith |
CAR |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
98 |
0.8 |
9.7 |
+123 |
0.609 |
Smith +123 |
| WR |
Chad Johnson |
CIN |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
81 |
0.4 |
6.5 |
-130 |
0.346 |
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| WR |
Larry Fitzgerald |
ARI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
73 |
0.7 |
8.0 |
+120 |
0.660 |
Fitzgerald +120 |
| WR |
Drew Bennett |
TEN |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
0.7 |
8.3 |
-110 |
0.524 |
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| WR |
Jimmy Smith |
JAC |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
62 |
0.5 |
6.1 |
+100 |
0.424 |
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Given the variance in player performance, particularly in a touchdown heavy scoring system like this, even the "projected to be outperformed" can have profitable expectations at the right odds. Hence picks like McAllister +152.
Last week: 3-3 (+0.85 units)
Archive:
- Week 4 Player Prop Bets
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