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NFL Player Prop Bets
Since we already make weekly Player Projections, it makes sense to take a look at some of the NFL player prop bets being offered.
While many sportsbooks are not yet entering the fray in this betting area, the always safe and reliable Bodog.com, among others, is posting some innovative prop bets.
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Player versus Player
A leading book allows for direct player versus player action, but uses the "Yahoo esque" fantasy scoring of 1 pt per 50 yds passing, 1 pt per 20 yds rushing/receiving, all TD's worth 6 points, fumbles/interceptions are -2
| Pos |
Player |
Team |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec.
Yds |
Rec.
TD |
Points |
Line |
Est.
Value |
PICK |
| QB |
Peyton Manning |
IND |
284 |
2.2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19.0 |
-214 |
0.239 |
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| QB |
Kerry Collins |
OAK |
301 |
2.0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18.2 |
+194 |
0.949 |
Collins +194 |
| QB |
Drew Brees |
SD |
254 |
1.9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16.7 |
-140 |
0.330 |
|
| QB |
Carson Palmer |
CIN |
274 |
2.3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19.4 |
+130 |
0.699 |
Palmer +130 |
| QB |
Brian Griese |
TB |
225 |
1.6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14.2 |
-102 |
0.572 |
|
| QB |
Trent Green |
KC |
201 |
1.0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10.1 |
-108 |
0.386 |
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| QB |
Jake Plummer |
DEN |
220 |
1.6 |
8 |
0.1 |
0 |
0 |
15.0 |
-106 |
0.458 |
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| QB |
Tom Brady |
NE |
281 |
1.7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15.9 |
-104 |
0.494 |
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| QB |
Eli Manning |
NYG |
207 |
1.5 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13.3 |
-120 |
0.348 |
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| QB |
Mark Brunell |
WAS |
277 |
2.1 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18.5 |
+110 |
0.641 |
Brunell +110 |
| RB |
Edgerrin James |
IND |
0 |
0 |
109 |
1.0 |
30 |
0.2 |
14.2 |
-115 |
0.465 |
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| RB |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
0 |
0 |
98 |
0.9 |
28 |
0.1 |
12.3 |
+105 |
0.488 |
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| RB |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
0 |
0 |
97 |
0.9 |
15 |
0.1 |
11.6 |
-160 |
0.317 |
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| RB |
Domanick Davis |
HOU |
0 |
0 |
80 |
0.4 |
49 |
0.4 |
11.3 |
+150 |
0.739 |
Davis +150 |
| RB |
Tiki Barber |
NYG |
0 |
0 |
81 |
0.3 |
17 |
0.1 |
7.3 |
-193 |
0.319 |
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| RB |
Ronnie Brown |
MIA |
0 |
0 |
46 |
0.3 |
9 |
0 |
4.6 |
+180 |
0.691 |
Brown +180 |
| RB |
Clinton Portis |
WAS |
0 |
0 |
85 |
0.3 |
24 |
0.1 |
7.9 |
-140 |
0.380 |
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| RB |
Kevin Jones |
DET |
0 |
0 |
58 |
0.6 |
8 |
0 |
6.9 |
+130 |
0.608 |
Jones +130 |
| WR |
Steve Smith |
CAR |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
67 |
0.5 |
6.4 |
+110 |
0.404 |
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| WR |
Randy Moss |
OAK |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
111 |
0.9 |
11.0 |
-120 |
0.527 |
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| WR |
Chad Johnson |
CIN |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
104 |
0.9 |
10.7 |
-152 |
0.465 |
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| WR |
Eddie Kennison |
KC |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
63 |
0.2 |
4.5 |
+142 |
0.417 |
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Given the variance in player performance, particularly in a touchdown heavy scoring system like this, even the "projected to be outperformed" can have profitable expectations at the right odds. Hence picks like Brown +180.
Last week: 4-3 (+1.9 units)
Season: 7-6 (+2.7 units)
Archive:
- Week 5 Player Prop Bets
- Week 4 Player Prop Bets
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