NFL 2008: Week Ten

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Week Ten Overview
Last week saw the bad teams rise up in unison with Cincinnati winning outright and Detroit and Kansas City both coming very close. (The Raiders are another story.) Also several of the hot start of the season types like Denver and Dallas now seem in disarray.

Denver at Cleveland (-3)
Broncos ship appears to have sunk. Offense has disappeared with five straight less than twenty point games and the passing effectiveness rating has dropped every single game! Browns not exactly formidable but have shown some good stick-to-it-ness after the 0-3 start and have had a very tough schedule: Nyg, Pit, a healthy Dal, Bal twice, Was, Jac with only a CIN game as 'rest'. Lean to Cleveland for now.

New Orleans at Atlanta (pick'em)
Falcons in danger of being over-rated this week after demolishing the Raiders but Oakland has so many woes that doesn't count for much. Saints the better team in my mind and off a bye. Some TMW tools like Atlanta however. Let's see what the injury news is.
No major injury thoughts. Pass.

Tennessee at Chicago (+3)
Bears slept through the first half vs Detroit but won in the end I suppose. Titans look like the class on paper and should keep scoring low. Lean to Tennessee.

Jacksonville at Detroit (+6.5)
Had the Jaguars as an 'under' on the season wins which looks prescient but even so it's tough to believe they would stink so badly against the Bengals. Detroit finally put a good effort out there last week but would need double digit points to make me interested.

Seattle at Miami (-9)
Seattle again gets lot of TMW tools picking them but just like last week I am unconvinced. The Seahawks are a bad team now and have a head coach in Holmgren who is on the way out and shows no real signs of caring about the rest of this season with playoffs out of the question. Reminds me of Seifert's 1-15 exit in Carolina. Lean to Miami.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5)
Vikings get the DC+DCTO pick which has them winning by seven on the straight drive stats but by nine when turnovers are included. The turnovers are unusual in that the interception difference is enormous with Minnesota looking far worse (-3 net) whereas the Packers have 13 defensive picks. Fumbles though are opposite with GB the unfortunate one there. Other signs in favor of the Vikings are the outside rushing stats and Peterson may be ready to post a mighty number. Football Outsiders and others were very high on the Vikings entering the season.
-- Pick: Minnesota -2.5

Buffalo at New England (-4)
Another DC+DCTO pick with the Bills forecast to win by a point on straight stats, but by seven with turnovers factored in. Ten offensive fumbles lost for Buffalo so far. Red zone column is also showing these teams with similar offensive tendencies but Buffalo has only allowed 32% of red zone drives to reach the end zone, New England 63%. After being in the Patriots' shadow for so long several AFC East teams are seeing a chance to knock down the nemesis. Bills have lost four of last five on the stats score which is a concern but this should be your classic decided by a field goal affair.
-- Pick: Buffalo +4
Injury news is bleak for Bills, consequently I recommend:
-- Saturday Pick: buyback on New England -3.5
[PASS if you did not already play Buffalo]

Baltimore at Houston (-1.5)
Ravens have been good to me this year but Houston has shown enough signs of life lately to be a challenge. Texans were 28-21 winners on the stats score last week but lost on the real scoreboard. Injury issues as well so let's wait and see.

St. Louis at N.Y. Jets (-8)
Rams have been a popular underdog but while 2-2 in reality under the new coach have been blowout on the stats score in three of four. Jets have won the stats score in four straight by 11+ points each time. Another DC+DCTO pick with the Jets seen as fifteen points better on pure drive numbers, eighteen better with turnovers. Favre will throw interceptions (Jets have 13 INT giveaways) but if he's restrained on that front New York looks like the play here. Lean to Jets.
Stats scores are telling of late. Line up a point but ready to play it.
-- Saturday Pick: N.Y. Jets -9

Carolina at Oakland (+9)
Raiders absolutely horrendous last week. No offense to speak of and chaos reigning. Not a good time then to face a 6-2 Carolina team off a bye. Not sure there is anyone in Oakland who can turn things around. Lean to Carolina.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (OFF)
Steelers were impressive on Monday Night but Colts may have one last hurrah.

Kansas City at San Diego (-15)
Chargers off the bye with Chiefs off the heartbreaker. Turner maybe not the coach to be laying over two touchdowns with but Chiefs have had some ugly losses. Lean to Kansas City.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-3)
I've liked the Eagles a few times in recent weeks but didn't play them due to TMW tools being for the opponent. This week we have some mixed signals and it's a tough decision to go against the 7-1 defending champions. Wait.

San Francisco at Arizona (-9.5)
Cardinals were good but this line is too high. Niners won the stats score 36-13 in week one despite losing by ten and will not be intimidated. Bye week gives Singletary a chance to get his own style into the team. Pass for now.

- Scott's picks week nine
- Scott's picks week eight
- Scott's picks week seven
- Scott's picks week six
- Scott's picks week five
- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one