NFL 2008: Week One

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. (Week one injury adjustments are minor for me.)

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra confidence will be denoted as such.

Week one games are a different breed and so must be the handicapping. The major research success story for week one games from this site has been http://www.twominutewarning.com/v04wk1.htm which amounts primarily to last season's net points stats for teams can be quite influential when used in a contrarian fashion.

Putting this together for 2008 you find:

It would take a lot to convince me to go against this angle so do not be surpised that what follows is largely in accordance with the above look!

Washington at N.Y. Giants (-4)
The Super Bowl curse was an angle in the old days that said the Super Bowl winner would have a 'hangover' the next season and be vulnerable against the spread in particular as the lines would be inflated in their direction while teams were gunning for them and the SB winner now was more likely to coast having reached the great heights. It has not fared so well lately however. The Colts were 2-2 in the first month ATS and 9-7 on the regular season last year. The Steelers were 1-3 in the first month after their triumph. The Patriots 2-2. So a 7-5 go against doesn't wow me. All three teams also won and covered the opener. So if we throw that fear out the window we have the Giants getting the pick from our key trend. The problem for the Giants may be their defensive line got thin quickly! On the other hand another key for early season analysis is to use some of the innovative work of the FootballOutsiders crew available in their fine Pro Football Prospectus Book. FO sees the Redskins as a 7-win team in 2008, with the Giants a 9.6 win club. I don't think they will disappoint on opening night.
-- Pick: N.Y. Giants -4

Detroit at Atlanta (+3)
I don't have much of a feel for this one between two dubious teams (FO read: 4.3 wins for Det, 3.5 for Atlanta!). The angle is not on, and the turnover and CSM week one features have little to say as well. Give these guys a game to see what's happening!

Cincinnati at Baltimore (+1.5)
The Ravens are an "over" pick on the season wins for me and FO agrees as well. Just two years removed from a 13-3 season there is a good chance of a bounce back to playoff worthy standing. The trend comes in on their side, as does a little week one turnover angle. Cincinnati has been a popular team for a while based I think on their star skill players but you need more than a few names to win in the NFL. Take the home dog here.
-- Pick: Baltimore +1.5
Line now +2.5 at Bodog

Seattle at Buffalo (pick'em)
Seahawks have won 9+ games in five straight seasons and had the #2 rated defense in points per drive allowed last year until the playoff hammering by the Packers took their final season stat up a bunch. The Bills have only won 9 once in the last eight years. So two teams with different paths in the last decade. Still the Trend calls for the Bills to be a turnaround in week one at least. I'm leery of this one however. Give me a field goal and I'd say yes but at a pick'em line I'm concerned enough to pass. FO sees 7.2 wins for Buffalo, 10.5 for Seattle and that's a big gap.
Line now Buffalo -1 most places.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (+3)
The TMW season wins predictions may have raised a few eyebrows with an 'over' on Miami. Yes coming off the 1-15 season a 6-10 year would probably be seen as successful in certain quarters. What about week one? The trend is not in effect, and I find little to recommend otherwise either way.

Kansas City at New England (-16.5)
How brave are you? That's a question you have to face in the NFL wagering arena once in a while. The Patriots of course will be eager to put their one loss of last season behind them with a good old thumping of an assumed lowly team. Our FO friends see 12.8 wins on the horizon and let's face it there's no precedent for 16-0 teams! The Chiefs are forecast for 6.6 wins but are another 'over' play. The trend calls for the Chiefs here, which is an obvious contrarian spot. Also of note is the past year spread margins system (see http://www.twominutewarning.com/v04csm.htm for the basics) which signs on to the Chiefs too. The week one CSM is 44-24 since 1984 but far better with home teams.
-- Pick: Kansas City +16.5
Line down to +16 or less

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5)
The Saints are another trend play with the double whammy of the CSM and this time it's home side pick which is good. By "bounce effect" alone we might see this as a Saints game since the Bucs rose up in '07 while the Saints fell off. Horrendous passing defense was the culprit in New Orleans but so long as they cover Galloway reasonably well the Bucs are not the most intimidating in this area.
-- Pick: New Orleans -3.5
Line now -3 many places

St. Louis at Philadelphia (-7.5)
The FO guys are very pessimistic about the Rams, projecting them at 5.1 wins to 11.7 for the Eagles. The Trends and CSM both call for the underdog nonetheless. Defense for the Rams looks to be the big issue if they do in fact get their offense back on track as expected. Watch one.
Line now St. Louis +8 many places

Houston at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
The ESPN magazine NFL preview was touting the Texans as the up and coming team. That alone should be a red flag for their chances. Yet the FO troops see 8.9 wins for Houston to 7.2 for Pittsburgh and the Trends view is all Houston on this. Another defensively challenged team last year, the defensive line has excellent potential to be a force. The Steelers did go 10-6 but after opening 7-2 were 3-4 down the stretch and then lost at home in the Wildcard playoffs round. A bad omen for them perhaps.
-- Pick: Houston +6.5
Line now at +7 many places

Jacksonville at Tennessee (+3)
The Titans are an 'under' season wins play, and FO agrees, pinning them for 6.7 expected wins to 9.2 for Jacksonville (also an under play). The Titans do have the Trend and the CSM working in week one at least. A field goal is not quite enough for me to bite at the moment. We'll see where the line moves by Saturday.

Dallas at Cleveland (+5.5)
The biggest home dog of the week and it's not a trends qualifier since the line is so high against the Cowboys. The Browns are a classic setup for the bounce going from 4 wins in 2006 to 10 last year, with the often seen pattern of a big drop back down emerging next. With no good indicators on this one I'll pass.

Carolina at San Diego (-9)
For two years in a row the Panthers offense has been underwhelming. The defense has been a top ten type in four of the last six seasons but was more average in the most recent year. Facing what has become a popular pick to take out New England for those looking for a dark horse AFC champ. FO sees 11.0 wins for San Diego, but a big 9.5 for Carolina. The turnover story between these two teams in 2007 shows a major difference which is another reason to think the luck may improve for the Panthers going forward.
-- Pick: Carolina +9

Arizona at San Francisco (+2.5)
The 49ers have benched former #1 pick QB Alex Smith and are going with a less glamorous option at the most important position. Lots of talk about what Martz may bring to the show as the new O.C. and I would expect more offense from the team. They are facing a significant FO projection debit here: 5.3 wins for SF, 7.5 for Arizona. The trend is on board for the home team but I am not until I see some evidence that San Francisco is turning it up a notch from their absolute worst offense in the NFL. (Or more points on the line by Saturday.)
Line still +2.5 so pass

Chicago at Indianapolis (-9.5)
The Colts have won 12+ games for five straight seasons. Naturally then the TMW season wins sheet is saying Under 11 wins. What would mark this as a drop off year? The offense has been top two in pts per drive for those five season, and the pass defense has been respectable. The Bears are not praised in FO, getting just a 6.9 wins projection. I don't see the Colts collapsing just yet and will pass here.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3)
The changing of the guard in Green Bay is the news as Favre has, while not retired in the end, moved on. Rodgers is therefore under a ton of pressure following in the shoes of such an all time great. The heat will also be on from the start with the impressive Minnesota defense being the first foe. You don't run on the Vikings, but they will certainly look to run on you! The trend is a Minny-backer. I am too.
-- Pick: Minnesota +3
Line down to +2.5, hopefully you got it at +3, questionable at only 2.5

Denver at Oakland (+3)
"Commitment to Excellence" was the Raiders slogan (is it still?) but that's hard to conjure up when you have lost 11+ games in five straight years. Ugly. The upside is the first round QB and first round RB potential but FO sees 3.9 wins this year as the line on both side of the ball has problems. Denver meanwhile seem like a solid bounce back possibility. I won't play against the trend laying a field goal but might consider it at less than that.