NFL 2008: Week Eleven

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Week Eleven Overview
One of the difficulties in a service like this is people have different goals. Some subscribers are looking for perhaps 1 or 2 key plays a week. Others are more volume oriented and trying to find 5-6 plays. I've elected to focus on what to me are the real high percentage options. Since I play many sports finding a ton of picks in one is not crucial. With only 14-16 games a week the NFL doesn't lend itself to a shotgun approach so much. The other difficulty is balancing making picks pre-injury news. In general I believe so strongly in the TMW injury analysis that I will seldom go against an "injury pick" as was the case with the buyback last week. So other than times where the line is really at a threshold and you want to grab it before it moves, it's best to wait until the Saturday news.

N.Y. Jets at New England (-3)
Don't look now but the Patriots are 6-3 with three straight massive 'stats score' home wins: 36-3, 40-7, 41-8. The Jets have been doing well on the stats score front themselves with five straight 10+ 'wins' by that. Some tools pointing to NY but I am skeptical.

Denver at Atlanta (-6)
Broncos pulled off come from behind win to snap a three game slide. At first read the line does seem too high, but not a lot of support for that view from the TMW tools which actually say Falcons are that much better. Wait.
Line up to -6.5 or higher.

Detroit at Carolina (-14)
Lions are in deep this week and can only truly hope to catch the Panthers a little over-confident or for gambling purposes get a back door cover or generally low scoring game. Trends says Carolina and I agree but that's an awful lot of points to be laying. Big dogs have been very successful this year so far. Lean to Carolina.
Injuries piling it on against the Lions, Delhomme looking to make amends.
-- Saturday Pick: Carolina -14

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (+9)
The Bengals are a pick from the red zone column, which at 13-6 on the season has the best record of the subscriber features. Often there's a bit of a letdown when a bad team finally wins its first game, but the Bengals were on bye and so may be back in it mentally (although they probably partied up a bit on the bye). Getting high confidence from the full story simulations makes me lean to Cincinnati for now.

Chicago at Green Bay (-5)
Last week the Packers did cover against the Vikings but in my mind were lucky to do so with a 3-0 turnover advantage, a punt return for touchdown, and a defensive touchdown. Surprisingly however the stats score shows it was close at 14-9 Minnesota. Still a "Wrong team Covered" label but barely. Green Bay has struggled passing in two straight but the Bears are not as good on defense as the reputation would suggest. Still the numbers say the line is more than it should be and I conceed that. Lean to Chicago.
Injuries favor the Bears but the line has dropped to only +3.5
-- Saturday Pick: Chicago +3.5

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5)
Colts were close to being under-rated but two good wins over NE and PIT have them back in the race at 5-4. Houston's passing defense has been awful except against two poor passing offenses and it's easy to envision the Colts marching up and down the field effortlessly. Lean to the Colts but won't be playing it unless injuries are striking.
Injuries side with the Texans. Pass.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
Titans have the winning mix but at some point you will see the blip game, like the Giants loss in Cleveland. Passing defense is stout so Jacksonville will need to make things happen on the ground but they are capable of this. Lean to Jacksonville.

New Orleans at Kansas City (+5)
Chiefs put on the great effort against the Chargers but then sadly went for a misguided in my view two-point conversion to win. It's one thing to go for it when you have a great offense but not such a good idea when you are over-playing to begin with. Saints looked bad against the Falcons and Chiefs have had a heralded home field advantage. Pass.
Big injury pick on the Chiefs. Not quite tempted.

Oakland at Miami (-10.5)
Raiders are a joke. But wait. Last week while losing, they actually won the stats score 27-0 and had Carolina's passing game in shambles. Sadly for Oakland their offense is more likely to be shutout than to score 24 points! Six straight games under twenty points, with four of last five ten or fewer points. A big ouch. That puts an awful lot of pressure on the defense. Even so I am leaning to Oakland at present and may find myself recommending them as a sneak attack play on Saturday.
Line down to -10. Oakland chaos too much to trust in on cross country road game.

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
Ravens a bettor's favorite team with a 7-1-1 spread record, but Giants are 7-2 ats even laying as many points as they are asked to do. We have a good tussle here then. Trends like the Giants, red zone likes the Ravens, but I lean to New York for now.
Line to -7.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Bucs off a bye, Vikings off an escape win after Packers missed the long field goal. Tampa very good at home, 4-0 with stats score margins of 24+ in each case. Would lean to Minny getting the +3.5 but Tampa looks to be in the right spot for a win here, so pass.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-6)
You have to love the way the line works. San Francisco shows signs of life and almost pulls an upset and suddenly they are six point favorites! St. Louis is a bad team with four blowout stats score defeats in the five games under Haslett, but 49ers were favored in week eight against Seattle and we know how that turned out. Pass.

Arizona at Seattle (+3)
Starting to look like it's an Arizona year and their big division lead can be cemented with another win this week. It seems the TMW tools like the Seahawks almost every game, but I am leaning strongly to Arizona to be able to win by more than a field goal here. Let's see what the injury situation is before biting.
Hasselbeck/Branch back for Seahawks. Cardinals should be able to score.
-- Saturday Pick: Arizona -3

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4)
On the one hand you have a San Diego team that is clearly mediocre and with a head coach I put in the lower half of the class. Then you have a Steelers group that are toughened and show obvious evidence of leadership. Trends pick goes for the Steelers and I am inclined to agree. Watch the injuries but this looks like a play.
Injuries check in with the call for Steelers, line up a notch.
-- Saturday Pick: Pittsburgh -5

Dallas at Washington (+1.5)
Many statistical signs saying the Redskins can repeat their win over the Cowboys but I definitely will wait until Saturday to clear up various can play/can't play news.
Romo listed as probable. Roy Williams may start at WR. Tough call as Trends, injuries and other factors support Washington. Portis being iffy makes me pass in the end.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-4)
Bills a DC+DCTO pick again but have an ugly record in the stats scores: three straight 25+ point defeats and five of the last six losing by 17+ on stats. That's not good and not the kind of record that makes me want to lay 4.5 points. Cleveland are inconsistent but have jumped up on occasion. Pass.

- Scott's picks week ten
- Scott's picks week nine
- Scott's picks week eight
- Scott's picks week seven
- Scott's picks week six
- Scott's picks week five
- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one