NFL 2008: Week Two

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Two Overview
While week one has generally been solid for me thanks in no small part to the special week one TMW trend, the second and third weeks I tend to go lightly as we learn more about the true state of teams heading into the new season.

Chicago at Carolina (-3)
Two teams that sprung big upsets in week one get together. The Bears returned to their defense and punishing running mode last week while Carolina came through with the last play touchdown pass. Which opponent was harder? Indianapolis and San Diego are both highly regarded teams. Early in the season I find the projections by the fine FootballOutsiders folks in their Pro Football Prospectus book to be valuable. Here they say Carolina 9.5 wins to Chicago's 6.9 wins. While the Bears get the UPM nod which has been a useful tool in week two, and had the more impressive week one performance, I want to see a repeat effort before being convinced of Chicago as an NFL heavyweight.

Tennessee at Cincinnati (-1)
The news out of Tennessee is of course all about the Vince Young saga. This likely serves as a distraction but I can't quantify an effect for somewhat unique occurrences. The Bengals some might say have been in a multi-year distracted mode. Cinco Ocho and the like notwithstanding, again this matchup is one where I need more games played before feeling I have a read on the teams.

Green Bay at Detroit (+3)
The Lions were brutalized defensively by Atlanta and now take on a team with much more potent offensive weapons one would think. Rodgers is keen to show that letting Favre go is no worry and the team is moving ahead into the new era. At the same time, it is early in the season to be laying a field goal on the road.

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-6)
Bills clearly had their way against the Seahawks on the scoreboard, but only accrued 13 first downs as the big play (including special teams) was tantamount. The Jaguars also had a tough time moving the chains but ended up on the losing end. Lean to Buffalo, let's revisit on Saturday.
Line now -5 most places, but injury report calls for the Bills.
-- Saturday Pick: Buffalo +5

Oakland at Kansas City (-4)
Raiders embarrassed on Monday Night but end up in the trend of the week, which says that in a meeting of teams with 0-1 records the away team (presumably the dog in most cases) has covered at a 70% rate since 1992. Kansas City were very competitve with the Patriots and thus are duly installed a medium favorite. I get the feeling this is a line in the sand game already for the Raiders: either things go much better or the team will splinter by the end of week two! What's to like about Oakland is some solid young talent on offense, who put up respectable stats in the end, albeit much of that when the game was out of hand. They also have one of the best CB's in the league which given the Chiefs only boast one real threatening WR makes it interesting. The Raiders need to contain LJ, but the Chiefs will have their hands full with Fargas/McFadden.
-- Pick: Oakland +4
Line now -3.5

Indianapolis at Minnesota (+2)
Count me among those shocked by the Colts week one game. As I stated earlier I need to see Chicago repeat before proclaiming them a good team. Vikings were a loser for me last week and often coming right back on such a team is sound but that would mean going against the notable trend.

N.Y. Giants at St. Louis (-9)
The Super Bowl curse has lost its power considerably in recent years as I mentioned last week and all signs point to the Giants covering the hefty number here. Technically the DC+DC/TO method we talk about on TMW is not well tested on early weeks but that's in effect here for NYG as they win by 26 on the straight drive stats projection, by 37 with the turnovers considered which means they were dominant in week one despite a negative turnover margin. Still you won't find me stepping on greater than touchdown road favorites very often. Maybe the Friday injury report will change my mind.
Injury situation helps Giants but not enough to bet

New Orleans at Washington (pick)
Colston is now labeled as out for a while which does hurt the Saints some. Nevertheless they have a solid team and get both the UPM and the DC+DC/TO in their corner for this event. The FootballOutsiders read was 8.3 wins for the Saints, 6.9 for the Redskins which isn't that far off the line then, but Washington's passing attack may have a ways to go to match up with even a Colston-less Saints.
[-- Wednesday Pick: New Orleans +0 ]
*** Injury report makes the Redskins a best bet this week. That makes the Saints less than desirable now. If you haven't bet then pass [Saturday view]. If you have you can ride the bet or buy back the other side, which at now Was +1 gives a tiny chance of a half middle.

San Francisco at Seattle (-7)
I stayed away from both California teams last week in spite of the week one angle backing them. This week I'm playing them both despite the shabby performances they provided in the openers. The 0-1 vs 0-1 trend is on here, as is the UPM, and the DC+DC/TO. Meanwhile the Seahawks are struggling to cobble together some WR's for the game. 49ers may be bad, but not as bad as presently thought. Four fumbles lost in the first week was their undoing and I have confidence that Martz will get the SF troops to put some points on the board here.
-- Pick: San Francisco +7
Line to -6.5 at some places

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-8)
A very good showing for the Falcons in week one which right off the bat has you thinking they look live getting the eight points. On the other hand, the FO read was Tampa 10.3 wins to Atlanta 3.5 (worst in the league) so maybe there's a little too much excitement about beating up a bad Detroit team (4.3 win projection). Lean to the Falcons but pass for now.
Line to -7 so pass

Miami at Arizona (-7)
Another matchup where I'm unwilling to bite this early on. Cardinals must feel like if any year is ripe for a division win this is it, with their three rivals all losing by double digits in week one. Then again they can't expect to get five takeaways again.
Line at -6.5 many places

San Diego at Denver (+2)
In what is perhaps the most intriguing game of the week we get some preliminary answers to "are the Broncos back on the map?" and "could the Chargers be over-rated?" Mile high is a big home field advantage and the UPM sees Denver taking this one. I'll watch from the sidelines for now.
Line swung to Denver -1, still pass

Baltimore at Houston (-4.5)
Ravens defense was outstanding in the opener (the Bengals lone touchdown was a defensive fumble recovery return) whereas the Texans got destroyed by Pittsburgh. Yes you see quick turnarounds from week one to week two, but getting so many points looks generous here. The UPM says so, and I'm a believer.
-- Pick: Baltimore +4.5
*** Another bad news on the injury report front game, has the injuries calling for Texans. I still like the Ravens here but not as strongly now. GAME CANCELLED

New England at NY Jets (-2)
New England an underdog? Quite a difference from last year but that's what happens when you lose the reigning MVP in the first half of game one. I don't think Favre is as magical as all that but the fact KC stayed with the Patriots even without Brady is a tad alarming. Super Bowl losers often don't fare well the next year.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+6)
Steelers doing their juggernaut act in week one while Cleveland clearly couldn't handle Dallas. The latter was not a big suprise (Cleveland just a 6.3 win FO team) but the former did rile me up as I was regrettably on Houston and the Steelers FO forecast was 7.2 wins. Now you have the Bet Tracker best bet on the Browns but I am nowhere near confident enough to take it just yet.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-7)
Another excellent pairing in what could be two of the best NFC teams. Philadelphia gets the UPM vote, and has the FO edge (11.7 wins to only 8.1 for Dallas). On the other perspective, Dallas looked very effective in their opener and how much does Philly beating up on the sad Rams really tell us? I'm leaning to Philadelphia but will wait until Saturday to decide.
Down to -6.5 and I'll pass at that line

- Scott's picks week one