NFL 2008: Week Three

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Three Overview
We are still one week away from when the statistical tools have enhanced predictiveness. It is also very human to be swayed excessively by the two results we have so far for teams. At a glance this week is not shaping up to be one with many plays for me so tread lightly.

Kansas City at Atlanta (-5)
Chiefs are looking like a poor 'over' pick for the season wins, and Edwards' coaching must be called into question some at this point. Since their bye week in 2007 when they were 4-3 they have now lost 11 consecutive games! The offense is alarming as Larry Johnson has not got it going and the QB shuffle isn't helping any. While the Trends pick is on the Chiefs since the Falcons lost last week and home teams off a loss have been poor bets in week three, I need to see more signs of life before venturing in here.
Line now -6

Oakland at Buffalo (-9.5)
A big line on this game, too big to my view. Yet you do have to wonder about the turmoil in Oakland where the head coach is waiting to be fired. Having to trek a long way east for the second straight week doesn't make things easy either. The Oakland run game was dominating against KC and while the Bills have been good overall against the run so far they have yielded some big gains which suggests there will be some open field running for Oakland. At this point I'm considering a possible Raiders bet but will likely need some favourable injury news to push me to that point.
No big injury news but I'm making the play.
-- Saturday Pick: Oakland +9.5

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3)
Tampa gets the Trends nod, one of the few 'systems' in play this week. The Buccaneers defense completely stifled the Falcons and with Chicago being another run heavy suspect passing team I have to believe there is more than a decent shot that we will see another low scoring game. The Bears will be tasked with slowing down Graham and making Griese beat them. At this point I lean to the Bucs but let's wait again for the injury news.
Again, no major injury advantage either way but I'm adding the play.
-- Saturday Pick: Tampa Bay +3

Carolina at Minnesota (-3.5)
This line took me by surprise as you have 2-0 Panthers getting more than a field goal agains the 0-2 Vikings. Yes there is that 'desperation' at work for an 0-2 team to try and get back on track, but that's a hefty line for a favorite to cover when your passing attack has been mediocre (latest news is that Minnesota will bench Jackson and start Frerotte). The Vikings did in the end outplay the Colts and so were unlucky perhaps to lose. Nevertheless the Panthers are a Trends pick and a good road team.
-- Pick: Carolina +3.5
Line down to -3 many places

Miami at New England (-12.5)
I don't like the Dolphins and you know with Brady this would have been close to -20 potential! Arizona destroyed the Dolphins pass defense for one thing. At the same time the Patriots are presently playing a very conservative game, content to let the defense hold the opponent down. In a few weeks I imagine we will see a less restrained passing game with Moss flying high again. For now though looking for a two touchdown win may be a tad too much. Pass for now.

Cincinnati at New York Giants (-13.5)
After a 2-6 start last year wrecked the Cincinnati season, they are in peril for another bad beginning. With a tough schedule I think it's safe to think the Bengals are in trouble. The Giants have looked convincing and at ease in the defending champion role so far and there is nothing to entice me to take the points but I don't lay two touchdowns in the NFL very often!
Consensus line now -13

Houston at Tennessee (-5)
Houston is in an emotional spot of sorts with the hurricane damage to their home. Somewhat reminiscent of the New Orleans experience a few years back. In that instance the Saints responded with an outright 23-20 upset on the road as an underdog and I would not rule out a similar happening this week. Yet Tennessee's defense has been brutally strong in the first two games and I do not see Houston scoring many points here. If it's 14-10 they have a shot, if the Titans get to 20 I think this one is over.
Line to -4.5

Arizona at Washington (-3)
Not much to choose here. Arizona off a good looking week versus Miami, but need to see them face a solid team before getting too excited.

New Orleans at Denver (-5.5)
Broncos have looked solid and mile high advantage is usually strong. Saints though are still a dangerous offensive team that can score in bunches. Lean to the favorite but too many points to lay right now.

Detroit at San Francisco (-4)
Lions looking like they could be the worst defensive team in the league after getting pummeled twice and guess what, the 49ers with Martz look like they could be scoring this season. Now on the plus side Detroit should find the end zone too. Lean to the Niners but let's wait for some injury news.
Line up to -5 and I'll pass.

St. Louis at Seattle (-9.5)
Maybe I spoke too soon. The Rams could be the worst defensive team but at least they faced two powerful opponents. Can't back the underdog when they have shown nothing. Can't back a big favorite when they are going down to the 7-11 to try and find wide receivers.
-10 line at Bodog

Cleveland at Baltimore (-2.5)
Part of early season handicapping is trying to get a read on which teams are under-rated/over-rated due to last season performance. This year heading in the Browns looked like an over-rated, the Ravens an under-rated. The wise Football Outsiders also felt this way projecting 8.5 wins for Baltimore, 6.3 for Cleveland and the first two weeks seem to confirm that idea. There's a chance Ravens will not look good on the injury front as they didn't last week heading into the cancelled game, but at -2.5 you should move before it moves to the field goal level.
-- Pick: Baltimore -2.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5.5)
Colts perhaps lucky to be 1-1, but Jags gave up some passing perks to Buffalo and Peyton may be ready to roll out a big one this week. The DC+DC/TO call is on the Colts although this is early for that. Lean to Colts and may be ready to go with them by the weekend.
Line down to -4.5 which is interesting, but I'll pass.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-3)
Over the past few years there was a sentiment that the AFC was the much stronger conference. Last year's Super Bowl may reflect a changing of that mentality but we get an interesting game here for an early AFC v NFC test. Some mixed signs on this makes it a watch but pass event.
-3.5 many places. Still pass.

Dallas at Green Bay (+3)
Packers have been stout enough to begin the season and cheeseheads breathing happy now that Rodgers has shown poise. Cowboys though are a step up in competition and so we get the home dog line. Romo makes mistakes but has so many weapons that if anything I lean to the Cowboys. Pass for now.

N.Y. Jets at San Diego (-9)
Jets have the Trends in their corner, the DC+DC/TO and some other key factors. San Diego has desperation and victimization working for them. And better talent. The FO read was 11.0 wins for SD, 7.2 for NYJ and that kind of spread makes a -9 line about right. I have not been impressed by the Jets so far and this cross country trip may not end well facing a Chargers team that wants to mete out anger unleashed.
Down to -8.5, pass.

- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one