NFL 2008: Week Four

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Four Overview
At this point in the season the statistical tools become more valuable and I will utilize them more. In addition Nathan has four new features he has developed for the "investor" area which I will be watching through the season.

Atlanta at Carolina (-7)
The Falcons have put together two very solid home efforts against weak opposition, sandwiched around a rather convincing road loss to Tampa Bay. There are some signs that they can cover the big number here, but until I see them put forth a good effort away against a quality team, I will pass.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Two AFC North 0-3 teams meet and I suppose the Bengals can at least feel some sense of coming close to pulling it together after last week's OT loss to the Giants. The Trends column gives a nod to Cleveland and I lean that way at present since you might as well take more than a field goal with two bad struggling teams. Let's see if the injury report sheds any light on Saturday.
Both teams banged up on the injury side...one more reason to pass

Houston at Jacksonville (-7.5)
The Texans have looked bad in their two games and now through the quirk of the cancelled week two game they face a third straight road game to open the season. On the plus side their opponents so far Pittsburgh and Tennessee both look like tough gritty teams which may excuse the struggles some. The downside is Jacksonville could be another team cast in that mould. The Texans are getting callouts from a number of Investor features, including the new third down contrarian and play by play angles, as well as the Trends (1-2 home teams are just 9-25 as favorites in week four so go against the Jaguars say the trends). Statistically to this point the Jaguars are better and it's a leap of faith to back a team before it's shown a good game. I lean to Houston but will again wait on making a call.
Injuries show a positive net change for the Jaguars, but that doesn't steer the decision here. Ultimately a number of TMW indicators are strongly pointing to the Texans. While Houston hasn't shown complete authority, ho ho, in either of their games so far, the Jaguars don't seem worthy of laying so many points at this stage.
-- Saturday Pick: Houston +7

Denver at Kansas City (+9.5)
If you were thinking that the Raiders' Kiffin would be the first coach fired, I have to wonder if KC may not oust their coach ahead of the Raiders even if there's a blowout loss on Sunday. The Chiefs have now lost twelve straight games and it's getting ugly. The offense has looked inept, managing only 6, 0, and 3 points on the "stats score" which excludes special teams/defensive scores and we're not talking about great defenses here in ATL, OAK, NE (Miami changed the view there quickly!). No offense is a bad omen facing a Denver team which has plenty of firepower. The Bet Tracker was at 13% of the bets on KC on Tuesday...it's now above 25% but the early action is often telling of a time to go contrarian. Still I have a very hard time seeing a KC wager in this spot. Pass.

San Francisco at New Orleans (-6)
All of a sudden the 49ers are a popular team. Martz has the offense scoring and fantasy players are dreaming of Gore as the next Marshall Faulk like powerhouse. But again strength of schedule gives me pause: the Saints have played Denver, Tampa Bay and Washington which seems like a much tougher road to travel than Detroit, Arizona, and a hurting Seattle side. A high scoring game is forecast, and a lot of signs point to the 49ers cover. Drive chart projection is SF winning outright by three, making them a cherished Drive Chart Dog. The UPM simulations have SF on the cover 66% of the time, and the Trend is again in effect with another 1-2 home favorite. I am still less than convinced. Revisit on Saturday.
The Saints are hurting but not to enough of a degree to push me onto San Francisco as a play. Pass.

Arizona at N.Y. Jets (-3)
Arizona also lands the DC Dog-UPM-Trends trio of positive indicators. Yet Nathan's third down conversion piece points out a big discrepancy in this matchup: the Cardinals are +13% conversion (offense - defense) where the Jets are -10%. Turnovers have been skewed to Arizona's liking but with Favre at QB for the Jets there's a good enough chance the turnovers will once again be good to the Cardinals. Lean to Arizona at present.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-1)
An exciting matchup of good potential teams and the linemaker comply with a 'choose 'em' game. Green Bay's pass defense has been solid with all three games 38% or less play success rates, albeit with the occasional big play allowed mixed in. That may mean increased pressure on a Tampa running game that was stifled by the Bears last week. The Bucs do have the "outside rushing" advantage which Nathan found to be of importance. Is that reason to believe? Not just yet.

Minnesota at Tennessee (-3)
The Titans have surprised many so far: 3-0 when the Football Outsiders projected 6.7 wins and the TMW season wins called for 'under'. Minnesota looks good at all spots but QB arguably and finally got a win when they went to aging Gus Frerotte last week. Now the Vikings face a defense that has allowed next to nothing through the air in three games, and next to nothing period (3, 3, 0 points on the stats score allowed). There will need to be some Adrian Peterson excitement in a game looking to be low scoring unless the defenses themselves provide a few TD's.

San Diego at Oakland (+7)
We saw the real Chargers on Monday and chances are good we will see them again in Oakland this week. The Raiders were outplayed last week by the Bills but through some luck ended up in front only to lose in the waning moments. There is something to be said for a team hanging tough together under the looming dark cloud of the coach firing but that can only go on so long. I envision a bad loss for the Raiders making it an easy decision for Al Davis after the final seconds run off. Lay a touchdown on the road though? Only if the injuries call for it as well.
We got the very strong injury call for San Diego to cover, but the line has also moved up a notch to -7.5 for the road favorite. That is a lot of points. Raiders have McFadden questionable and Fargas out at the RB spot, which may curtail some of that "outside rushing" edge while one of the premier CB's in Asomugha is also questionable. This week I think the Chargers make a statement.
-- Saturday Pick: San Diego -7.5

Buffalo at St. Louis (+8)
I have seen some handicappers I respect talk of backing the Rams this week but alas I am running in the opposite direction. No way I can bet St. Louis until they show some signs of life and Buffalo has a lot to gain here with a chance to move to 4-0. Too many points for my liking to be laying on the road but no inclination to give the Rams a second thought.

Washington at Dallas (-11.5)
Dallas does seem to be America's Team once again judging from the spread here. Washington has not looked to bad so far and Romo's high risk high reward mentality makes a double digit dog interesting. Lean to the Redskins for now and see what news Saturday brings.
Nothing too dramatic on the injury news, I'll pass.

Philadelphia at Chicago (+3)
One tool to watch that carries a lot of logic is the DC + Dc/To method. When a team has a stats edge and yet has done worse on the turnovers than its opponent there's a lot to like. This week we have two qualifiers and the Eagles are the first. Predicted to win by 11 on the straight drive stats score, it's up to by 14 when turnovers are factored in. Philadelphia is the better team. Off the board many places, the field goal lay is available in Las Vegas. Westbrook's injury may drop the line, so best strategy is to perhaps wait but don't miss the -3 if it starts moving higher.
-- Pick: Philadelphia -3

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-7)
Another DC+DC/TO pick, this time on the Ravens. Meanwhile RB Willie Parker is out for the Steelers which is causing some off the board lines for now. The Ravens being in addition an underdog get the DC Dog status. As I've discussed before I thought the Ravens were an under-rated team coming in as their defense looks to be getting back to the famed Super Bowl crew like levels. A hurting Steelers team may not be able to score enough to win, let alone cover. Go with Baltimore and wait for a good line. If +7 is available and it starts to come down grab it.
-- Pick: Baltimore +7
The line is now at +5 many places which becomes a less worthwhile play, so hopefully you got it at the plus a touchdown available earlier in the week, otherwise I would pass at this point.

- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one