NFL 2008: Week Five

My apologies for the slow posting this week. I am staggering through a bout of flu but will bring my crispest thinking to the games. Even so the narratives may be briefer than normal.

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Five Overview
More and more the statistical tools take precedence.

Tennessee at Baltimore (+3)
The Ravens have been a frequent pick already but now get a tough test against the 4-0 Titans who have simply demolished opposing passing attacks. Their average TMW "stats score" in the four games is 28-4. In other words a team that has played about as well as humanly possible. That is hard to maintain in the NFL. A key indication that Baltimore may prevail comes from the Trends: the "Ray Lewises" are top ten in rushing offense, rushing defense, and passing offense yards per game, but conspicuously 31st in the league in passing offense. Home teams with this pattern have been a remarkable 70%+ cover through the years, so even stronger than the normal trend value. In addition the DC+DCTO shows the Ravens as the cover on the straight drive stats score, but an even bigger margin cover on the adjusted by turnovers score.
-- Pick: Baltimore +3

Kansas City at Carolina (-9.5)
Panthers are a DC+DCTO pick and I see the Chiefs coming back to earth after their shocking upset last week of Denver. This has me leaning to Carolina but unless the injuries have a lot to say I will pass the the more than a touchdown line.
Holding steady at -9.5, but no injury bonus to push me over the top

Chicago at Detroit (+3.5)
The Lions have looked awful in all games so far (average stats score 11-42) with zero pass defense in evidence. Even with a slew of TMW features calling for the home underdog, I need to see more from them before I will back them.

Atlanta at Green Bay (-3.5)
After waiting all week the verdict is Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is "questionable" which clears up very little. The fantasy side sources say he will be a game time decision. Great. If he plays I'd lean to the Pack, if he doesn't the Falcons. So I'm staying far away of this ambiguous situation.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3)
The Texans came close to the first win last week in covering, and now get a rested Colts team at home. The Bet Tracker sees them as a contrarian pick as they were <20% in the early Tuesday patterns. Indianapolis could easily be 0-3 (or 2-1 for that matter) but by no means look as formidable as in the past. Still the stats have them as a considerably better team. Lean slightly to Houston but pass at present.
The Colts get a partial injury vote on the "change score" number and that would sway me to leaning to Indy but not so far as to play them.

San Diego at Miami (+6.5)
Chargers got the win and then the miracle cover last week but were surpsingly ineffective on offense against a Raiders team operating under the shadow of the Al Davis noise. Not a great sign to then be a near touchdown road favorite against a team off a bye coming off a demolishing of last year's 16-0 record breakers! Think the Chargers are much, much better than they've shown but won't bet that here.

Seattle at N.Y. Giants (-7)
The Seahawks get some receivers back which should help but the Giants have been good so far although against dubious opponents (Was, Stl, Cin isn't exactly running the gauntlet). The Contrarian Consensus sides on Seattle and at the line now I do lean that way. Let's see if injuries can push it further.
No huge injury news, but remember that Burress is suspended for a game. The stats score is ugly in favor of NYG and it may be a week or more before the returning Seattle WR's are in form so pass.

Washington at Philadelphia (-5.5)
The Redskins are suprising me and the rest of the world it seems especially the passing offense. Three straight 50%+ success rates through the air will win games and has done so. Philly though are better than their 2-2 record with a 28-12 stats score. Turnovers are some of the problem, but with Westbrook reportedly ready to go I think they will come out strong. A lot of points to lay though makes it a pass.

Tampa Bay at Denver (-3)
Prior to last week's events Denver might have been a touchdown favorite here but the loss to Kansas City is a mystery. The Broncos offense has been explosive and while Tampa has had two dominant home games, they have yielded big plays on the road. I like Denver in this spot, let's see the injuries first.
No injury news of major significance. Some conflicting signs in the end and I'll pass.

Buffalo at Arizona (-1)
A nice run has put the Bills to 4-0 but they were in some trouble midway through last week against the lowly Rams. Arizona's one home game was a dominant performance for them and if you like consensus approaches to picking NFL matchups this may be the game for you as the Cardinals get the call from six major features. Another lean here for Arizona and let's see tomorrow's news.
Again nothing much to report injury wise, but a litany of TMW Investor indicators makes this a go as Buffalo heads west for the second straight week.
-- Saturday Pick: Arizona -1

Cincinnati at Dallas (-17)
A lot of the usual in Dallas with Terrell Owens. Bengals played well against the Giants and no way should be seventeen point underdogs here, especially with the Cowboys coming off an outright loss as a double digit favorite the week before. Injuries are a key though: we want some sense that Palmer will be playing.
The injury report shows Carson as questionable...but fantasy people are talking like he's going to be ready to go. Of course that's what they were saying last week too! Seventeen seems like an outrageous number of points to be getting here yet the Bengals have looked bad in all games save for vs the Giants and even there they were beat 40-19 on the "stats score" so I'm wary.

New England at San Francisco (+3)
How the mighty have fallen. From laying more than two TD's in the opener the Patriots still garner favorite status but not by much. The 49ers were exposed by the Saints but it does not appear the Patriots are the powerful offense without Brady that they would be with him. Still hard to believe that the coaching genius in NE won't come up with some solutions to take care of the problems against Miami. Lean to New England.
A line in the sand game for the Patriots as either they deliver here or the season heads south fast. I think the bye week will make a difference.
-- Saturday Pick: New England -3

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4)
Yes the Steelers are thin at running back (four straight games of 36% or lower success rate rushing) which puts a ton of pressure on Roethlisberger, but statistically they are the better team. Too much going on to be eager to enter the fray here.
Injury Report gives the call to Jacksonville which swings me to leaning that way. Not enough to bet.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3)
The Vikings are one of the more disappointing teams through the first four weeks. Yet they have faced a tough road: @GB, IND, CAR, @TEN and should find the Saints a team that Peterson can run on as New Orleans has allowed 57% success rate, 14% big gains, and 5.3 yards per play rushing on the season. This could be an excellent game on some levels, but I don't see line value either way.
Minnesota gets the weaker "this week" boost from the injury report but both teams are inconsistent.

- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one