NFL 2008: Week Six

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Six Overview
The statistical tools have more games of course to go on, and seasons are already starting to take shape for teams.

Chicago at Atlanta (+2.5)
An interesting game. I have a feeling both teams are slightly over-rated based on their records to this point (both 3-2). They have three common opponents so far and Chicago has done better against each on a final score basis. Yet Nathan's new "third down contrarian" method puts in a call for the Falcons and this is intriguing since Chicago has a +16% third down net to Atlanta's -5%. Still let's sit on the sidelines for now.
Line has moved to +3. Lean to Atlanta but the common opponents makes me pass.

Miami at Houston (-3)
Sometimes it's worth admitting to yourself when you don't think you have a good read on a team. Both these clubs appear that way to me right now. Is Miami indeed a solid team or is the direct snap to Brown play going to lose its luster over time? Beating New England and San Diego is certainly a wake up call for non-believers. Houston for their part clearly should have won last week against the Colts. This game features so many mixed signals from the TMW tools that it's an easy pass for now.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-4.5)
The Ravens defense is back in a big way. Spectacular against the run in three of their four games and also supremely effective against the pass. Sadly for them the offense once more looks to be lacking. The Colts were over-rated heading into the season but now the line is coming back to reality for them, although the 'great escape' last week is keeping it above a field goal. The Drive Chart underdogs have not done well so far but Baltimore comes in as an 11.5 point overlay by that measure. Lean to Baltimore for now and see what the injury news brings.
Line down to -4 and for the first time this season I'll pass on backing the Ravens.

Detroit at Minnesota (-13)
The Lions have been awful so far with an 11-40 stats score average. At some point though they may be a worthwhile play and this could be the spot with Minnesota laying so many points and not being an offensive powerhouse. The Lions get the 'contrarian consensus' vote of turnover ineptitude and terrible spread performance, and the previously mentioned third down contrarian: let's face it, the Lions don't look good on any stat right now! I am leaning heavily to Detroit though for this to be their first 'show up' game.
Line down to -13 and Kitna is listed as dubious which is a concern. While the Lions may indeed put forth their first good effort the QB situation is enough to warrant passing.

Oakland at New Orleans (-7.5)
So the Raiders finally fired their coach and now descend into more chaos no doubt. Saints will be riled up after losing last week in ridiculous fashion. Not the matchup that suits the Raiders I think, but I'm not biting at a line of laying more than a touchdown.
Line down to -7 but Raiders get the call from the injury report. Still think the Saints are the slightly better option but not tempted to put that opinion to the test.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (-6)
Favre is making his statement what with the six touchdown game and the Packers struggling and dealing with a hurting QB. The Bengals at 0-5 seem to have adopted a very carefree attitude to it all, at least on the part of Chad Johnson. But I do sense the team is already tuning out the coaches to some extent which is not a great sign against a 2-2 team that should be fierce and comes off a bye. Lean to the Jets and let's see the injuries on Saturday.
Palmer not likely to play for the Bengals which makes me lean further to the Jets. But the line has zoomed to -9 at some places which is too much given the Jets blowout of the Cardinals was in part turnover-causation.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Some mixed signals but to me Carolina is the clear winner of these two teams. With Steve Smith back the passing game has elevated considerably. The Panthers are 25-14 stats score to Tampa's 19-17, but on the plus side for Tampa they have pitched two "stats score shutouts" in their two home games. Lean to Carolina for now.

St. Louis at Washington (-13.5)
The Rams are much like the Lions. They can't be this bad for the whole season, right? St. Louis was actually the better team in their game with Buffalo but lost while the Redskins come from back to back "wrong team won" games where they came out on top. A number of contrarian signals again point to the Rams, so I lean to them at present and hope the injury news is also to their benefit.
Redskins don't strike me as the team that's going to pile up 30 points regularly so if the Rams can show a touch more offense the cover looks reasonable. The line of +14 is available at Bodog and elsewhere so get that if you can.
-- Saturday Pick: St. Louis +14

Jacksonville at Denver (-3.5)
A big contrast in stat scores on the year: Denver 38-26, Jacksonville 19-29. One development for Denver has been five straight 100+ passing effectiveness scores, but the number has been dropping each week. The Jags have been giving up aerial yards (7.0 per play) and big gains. The DC+DC/TO is all over this match as the Broncos are 34-21 on the straight drive stats, but 39-21 winners with turnover adjustments. I like the Broncos and you can actually find a few -3 lines around. If you have that option take it, otherwise you might wait until Saturday in the hope that action brings that to you and that injuries don't raise a question mark.
-- Pick: Denver -3.5*

Dallas at Arizona (+5)
Two teams putting points on the board on both sides meet and quickly the over/under is set at 50. The Cowboys make some mistakes and consequently are a turnover pick but the Cardinals have more indicators on their side. Boldin was hammered in the last game and that injury is of note not only for the player himself but for the team morale potentially. Lean to Arizona.
Arizona has a lot of TMW signals but I am passing.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (+5)
San Francisco gets a lot of votes again from the TMW tools, in everything from third down to red zone to turnovers. Still I just have a hard time believing this team is achieving much except ensuring the coach will be fired at year's end. Philadelphia has lost back to back games where they were the stats winners and so instead of 4-1 are 2-3 and getting a little desparate I imagine. Can't see playing this now but maybe I'll have a change of heart by the weekend.
49ers get the highest confidence level of the week from the Full Story but I have to disagree. The Eagles look like chronic underachievers to this stage and I think the 49ers are showing signs of starting to slide again (opened season 2-0 in 2007). Philadelphia really needs this game.

Green Bay at Seattle (-2.5)
Another case of feeling uneasy with both teams. Green Bay is the sole trends column pick of the week, based on Seattle's lack of passing offense and passing defense. If Rodgers can go I think the Packers will get some points.
Rodgers has not thrown a pass in practice all week but will start they say. That makes me uneasy.

New England at San Diego (-6)
First instinct is the line is too high. Coming off a down game versus Miami and facing a Patriots team that has been excellent defensively in three of four it does seem like a lot to lay. The Chargers were down 15-3 to the Raiders in the second half after all. Lean to New England.
Injuries don't bolster the argument one way or the other. Important game for gauging where these two teams are, but I'll just watch.

N.Y. Giants at Cleveland (+9)
Through the first five weeks the best team in the league has clearly been the Giants but some chinks in the armor become apparent when you see the soft schedule: Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Seattle. Those four sport a 5-13 record (5-9 if you deduct the NYG games). Now Cleveland isn't my idea of a powerhouse either but they at least have battled the likes of Dallas, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. So while the numbers say New York, including the always potent DC+DC/TO (33-8 straight drives, 30-3 turnover adjusted) I am balking at laying so much on the road on Monday Night.
The DC+DC/TO is very strong even backing the biggest favorites. Yet the injury change score is on Cleveland and so while I think the Giants are the right side I'll pass.

- Scott's picks week five
- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one