NFL 2008: Week Seven

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Seven Overview
I haven't had a lot of plays the last few weeks, and this season seems to be featuring up until the last minute uncertainty about quarterbacks which can be difficult to deal with.

San Diego at Buffalo (pick'em)
Chargers sure put the hurt on New England but have been inconsistent. Buffalo on the other hand aside from a good win in Jacksonville have not bested any tough team and had two bad stats score games before their bye. Lean to San Diego at present.
Edwards should play which tilts it back to Buffalo some for me. Pass.

New Orleans at Carolina (-3)
I was suprised by Carolina's lack of success vs Tampa last week. New Orleans brings a powerful offense to the table which makes them a dangerous underdog. Not a lot of indicators show up for this matchup: a non-qualifying DC+DCTO for the Saints, an "outside rushing" vote for the Panthers. Pass for now.

Minnesota at Chicago (-3)
The Vikings win last week in the waning moments against Detroit was not pretty but they did win 26-3 by the stats so not as bad as it would appear. I don't see the Bears doing a ton of damage on offense against the Vikings stout defense. Lean to Minnesota.
Vikings get a strong vote from the Injury Report as well as top Full Story simulation billing.
-- Saturday Pick: Minnesota +3

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+10)
Carson Palmer is ailing which means that Ryan Fitzpatrick is in the spotlight as the Bengals QB. It has not been pretty so far and a career 5 TD, 11 INT scorecard is daunting. There are a lot of signals from the TMW tools saying Cincinnati's a go so it once again comes down to how much is a QB worth? In the old days we used to think QB's were vastly over-rated for their line importance but now I'm less emphatic on that. Particularly when facing a Steelers team coming off a bye (and Pittsburgh is #2 in passing defense by the PBP numbers)! Still lean to the Bengals but let's hear more first.
Line down to +9.5 again and Pittsburgh gets a "change score" injury vote. Pass.

Tennessee at Kansas City (+8)
Humourous stats scores: TEN is 24-7 average, KC is 7-33. Another very dicey passing matchup for the home dog as Tennessee is the #1 passing defense and the Chiefs by far the worst in the NFL so far in passing offense. So if the Chiefs are to cover chances are Larry Johnson will have to be the prime mover. Nathan's 3rd Down Contrarian and Outside Rushing both call for the home team and I'm trusting that some regression to the mean occurs in the air as well.
-- Pick: Kansas City +8
Larry Johnson suspended and the line is up to +9. The basis of the play originally is in part some newfound respectability coming for the Chiefs passing game so that's still there. Not super happy about the turn of events but don't like a buy back where you can middle yourself. If you haven't bet it yet I would pass.

Baltimore at Miami (-3)
Miami lost last week but showed enougth that I'm becoming a fan. Meanwhile the Ravens pitiful offense is moving me away from their camp. Yet Baltimore is another close to qualifying DC+DCTO and has a few indicators to boot. Pass for now.

San Francisco at N.Y. Giants (-10.5)
The Giants were off their game on Monday but land a reeling 49ers team. We're being asked to lay a lot of points but the Trends column says it's the right thing to do and I agree. You may want to wait and see if a -10 becomes available.
-- Pick: N.Y. Giants -10.5

Dallas at St. Louis (+7)
Romo is out for the Cowboys and the Rams have scored a first win upset although the stats score was 3-35! Ordinarily I would be looking for Dallas to do a number but not so with the backup QB.
Rams get an injury vote but I'm sitting this out. Romo also hinting he may play after all.

Detroit at Houston (-9)
As remarked upon earlier the Lions seemingly "good effort" was not so shining on the stats side. So I am returning to running far away from considering Detroit until they show a truly strong outing. Texans have the firepower to produce the blowout. Pass for now.

Indianapolis at Green Bay (+2)
Colts had the game people expected last week at last. Rodgers is trying to display the Favre-accustomed toughness. Don't have a feel for how this one will go.

N.Y. Jets at Oakland (+3)
I was astonished when this line popped up. Yes the Jets are somewhat over-rated based on the turnover driven explosion against Arizona. I don't see signs of optimism in Oakland though where chaos is reigning. The only odd thing is the bet tracker showing the Raiders getting little betting but the line moving down from a +3.5 open. Lean strongly to the Jets at the moment but let's see the injury news.
Still think this line is too low and the Jets should be laying more, but without confirming signs from the tools I will pass.

Cleveland at Washington (-7)
Teams coming off an upset as a home dog on Monday Night? That could be a trend to note, but a real shortage of opinions from the TMW tools makes this a pass for me.
Line now at +7.5 and Browns get a staunch vote of confidence from the injury report. Lean to Cleveland.

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-10.5)
Bucs have looked super at home and Seattle has looked bad everywhere. A recipe giving you a double digit favorite. Little reason to believe in the Seahawks right now but too many points for a defensive minded team.

Denver at New England (-3)
Broncos disappointed at home and now face a weakened former champ away. Patriots have been devestated by opponents' passing in two of the last three games and the Broncos should be able to do damage in the air. Not sure New England has the answer anymore and the Super Bowl Loser curse really seems to have taken hold. Lean to Denver.
Denver gets the 'change score' injury indicator but the effort last week was poor and have to imagine the Patriots will look much better here than they did against the Chargers. Pass.

- Scott's picks week six
- Scott's picks week five
- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one